Ran a 1:16 half in tropical storm-like conditions, what could I run in good conditions?

There is nobody who is going to be able to give you a better answer than yourself here.

I know who this is. You came in second right?

This is all theoretical but by explaining my logic and outlaying the calculations we can adjust as necessary.

You ran 5:45 min/mile pace. There are two variables in play we are looking at:

1) You are not tapered.

2) Windy conditions.

Addressing 1), we know that tapered runners tend to perform 3 to 5 percent better than runners who do not taper. So that 5:45 pace could be 5:35 to 5:28.

Addressing 2), a tailwind will help you half as much as a headwind will hurt you. Running into a wind equivalent to your running speed (a bit over 10 mph) will slow you down approximately 12 seconds per mile; a 10mph tailwind would help you by 6 seconds per mile. Suppose during the 30mph headwinds; 5:46 pace exerted 5:10 (36 second difference) effort but during the 30mph tailwinds, 5:46 exerted 6:04 effort (18 second difference). If we average the effect of the wind on exertion, you were exerting yourself at a pace of 5:37 on average. Of course, if 5:10 is significantly above your lactate threshold; running at 6:04 pace to "recover" would have other effects we cannot account for here.

So if by 2) we come to the inference that you were exerting yourself at 5:37 min/mile pace; and add 3 to 5 percent performance increase in a tapered race and you went all-out and ran to the best of your current ability in a flat race in ideal racing conditions; we can infer that you would run somewhere between 5:26 min/mile pace and 5:20 min/mile pace or between 1:11:13 and 1:09:55.

Sources for taper percentage performance increase:

Endurance Training Science and Practice by Inigo Mujika ~ A well-designed well-implemented taper improves performance by 2 to 3 percent; with a range of 0.5 to 6 percent.

Wind Studies:

Davies, C. T. M., Effects of wind assistance and resistance on the forward motion of a runner. Journal of Applied Physiology 1980, 48 (4), 702-709 backed by interpretation by John Davis at Runners Connect

https://runnersconnect.net/running-in-windy-conditions/

You’ve never been through a tropical storm so I can understand why you’d say something so ignorant. It was just your standard winter cold front. And it wasn’t that bad. It was regular bad.

Winter in Florida is incredibly unpredictable. Summer in Florida is incredibly predictable. Yet you Yankees always come here and whine about the weather.

If it's the race I'm thinking of, there were sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with max wind gust of 50 mph; it is very reasonable to reduce performance expectations under those conditions; particular when it is on the coast and there is no one nearby to draft off of.

Which is why I said tropical storm-LIKE conditions. I didn't say there was actually a tropical storm and wasn't trying to make it sound that bad. It was just a way to describe the weather that went through (i.e. wind and rain). @I'm better at Data modeling than running - the race was in St. Pete if that's the one you are thinking of.

Oh yeah and living in Florida, I've seen plenty of tropical storms so I'm pretty sure I can tell what is/isn't one.

So you weren't tapered, weren't running all-out, and ran in 25-30 mph winds at various points.

There's no way to do much better than pulling something out of my a$$, so what would you like me to say your equivalent tapered, all-out, nice weather time would be?