Official Covid Vaccine thread

I initially started the "vaccine era" at January 2021, then changed it when I saw your post which put it at April and figured it might preempt complaints about the break point if I used yours. True story.

In any case it doesn't make a significant difference.

Note that the 2 sigma trend deviation is in parenthesis following the trend.

The evidence favoring your vaccine argument is the same evidence that supports a COVID-did-this argument. However, we have tons of other evidence (clinical trials, observational studies, COVID-is-really-quite-damaging studies) that make COVID the far better explanation with current data.

Sure, you have a correlation that fits your story. That, alone, is really weak evidence and absent anything else, I'm going to go with my much more supported theory.

Not believing that a noisy correlation is causation != shutting down debate lol

Very nice. It's all just COVID until we get real evidence otherwise.

The SSA tracks why disability claims are made. Here is what I found.

Long term disability:
– Cancer 17%
– Back disorders 13%
– Injury 12%
– Cardiovascular 9%
– Joint disorders 9%

lifehealth.com

What Are The Top 10 Causes of Disability? «

A 10-year review of disability claims shows the effects of an aging workforce, medical advances and the power of early intervention, according to data from Unum (NYSE: UNM), a leading provider of disability benefits.

Link:www.lifehealth.com/top-10-causes-disab...

It would be interesting to see if the trends changed beginning in 2021. If the vaccine damage hypothesis is valid, as several polls now indicate, then claims for cardiovascular disability would be higher, for example. Since this article only accounts for 60% of claims, I assume several less common conditions make up the remaining 40%.

As I have pointed out, and this article confirms, the data already exists to see if vaccine damage is a likely cause of the rise of disability claims. It would be a matter of sorting new claims by reason and by vaccination status.

Authoritarian lockdowns and border restrictions in a small isolated country. A maniacal drive to plunge multiple needles into every last arm. 5 Million people go 2 1/2 years without exposure, and no ability to gain natural immunity.

HERE is the result:

theguardian.com

Covid becomes equal leading cause of death in New Zealand for first time

https://www.theguardian.com/profile/tess-mcclure

Analysis shows almost 15% of deaths in mid-July were due to Covid, with that figure likely to be an undercount

Link:www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/08/...

April-June is indeed the greatest slope (and fittingly April 1 is basically peak vaccination day), but of course Feb-April's slope is also quite large, which also makes sense given that nearly half of the doses in the first big push were given by then. I can see how my language could have been more precise. The issue I raised is that modification potentially removes signal from the vaccine dosage era and places it in the COVID only era.

While I trust you that the slopes don't change all that much, I'd be interested in seeing the visual of isolating that 14-month stretch of heavy vaccination beginning in Jan 2021. I suppose I could also just do it myself and am just being lazy.

Yes, failing to completely flip-flop is not shutting down debate. But scientific curiosity when presented with such a trend should at least spark an interest in finding out more. Some of the pieces of evidence fisky has requested are exactly what a responsible investigator should want to look at to hopefully exclude these possibilities.

If I were in your position, it certainly wouldn't embolden my confidence that everything is just COVID and there's nothing see here except for "vax bad" hype. That's why it comes across, at least to me, that sometimes you're more motivated to simply move past alarming data that you hope don't indicate alarming possibilities.

Ideally, we should remain disinterested in whether or not our current scientific models are right or wrong. But that's very difficult these days. I truly hope the jab ends up having caused negligible harm because I have two doses inside me. That doesn't mean I don't want to know if it does.

20% of adults fully "vaccinated".

Vax mob mafia, please comment on your abysmal failure in Africa.

*********

JOHANNESBURG, Aug 10 (Reuters) - South Africa's Aspen Pharmacare (APNJ.J) will stop making COVID-19 vaccines from the end of this month due to a lack of orders, a senior executive said, further undermining Africa's already meager capacity to produce doses.

Aspen currently produces vaccines for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N). In March, it struck a deal to produce, price, and sell its own-brand version of the shot for African markets.

That deal was considered a game-changer for a continent frustrated by sluggish Western handouts. But, while only a fifth of adults in Africa are fully vaccinated, according to the African Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, demand for shots have failed to materialise.

reuters.com

S.Africa's Aspen to halt COVID vaccine output as J&J orders dry up

Promit Mukherjee,Wendell Roelf

South Africa's Aspen Pharmacare will stop making COVID-19 vaccines from the end of this month due to a lack of orders, a senior executive said, further undermining Africa's already meager capacity to produce doses.

Link:www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-ph...

The disability data strengthens the COVID argument. The trendline fits exactly with the COVID pandemic in the US.

Yes, the correlation also fits with vaccination to a lesser degree -- confounding variables!!

The argument you are pushing is no different that pointing to an excess death graph and claiming that the rise in excess deaths after April 2021 correlates with vaccine dosing. It does! But very little evidence supports that theory and a lot of evidence supports those deaths being caused by COVID.

"Disinterested in whether current models are right" is not the same as "jump onto every piece of flimsy correlative evidence that might disprove a current model." You have to judiciously credulous -- the disability data, like excess death data, is simply far too weak to considering discarding current models. The fact that you are wasting so much energy on it tells me that you are not the least bit 'disinterested' in this vaccine-injury hypothesis.

I, on the other hand, remain nearly perfectly rational atop my throne.

DanM, please comment on the 300k dead Americans who could have been saved by the vaccine. How does that make you feel?

My niece was given her last rights today and will likely die in the next day or so. I was fortunate to be with her and her family a few weeks ago. Until you have known someone with a debilitating injury from a vaccine, it is easy to dismiss others as anti-vaxxers.

This is not fear porn, this is the reality my brother's family has had to live with the past ten years. My niece suffered a vaccine injury as an infant that left her unable to talk, walk, eat, etc. She has had seizures ever since immediately after her 6-month vaccinations. My sister-in-law quit her job as a nurse to provide her with full time care. They spent years in Vaccine Court and were eventually awarded a decision. The past few months she has been living off of a feeding tube and has been in hospice care. I'm sorry if it offends you to hear about the collateral damage vaccinations can cause.

this news is fake.

So it’s not even a COVID vaccine?
boy you are grasping at straws.

We arent your trauma therapists.

I'm assuming this is tongue and cheek. I'm struggling to believe you don't have any remote interest in proving one side of the argument over the other. I think we're wasting a lot of time because of argument tactics that distract from the point that seems pretty clear-- that we've got a signal worth investigating. Your hyperbole is another tactic-- it's not a choice between being hardheaded and unduly credulous, so I don't see an unwillingness to update a model as the only alternative to "jumping onto every piece of flimsy evidence." There's more than enough here to have a curiosity in investigating the questions fisky posed.

And if all you take from my arguments is that this is further proof of the COVID hypothesis, then we aren't really debating. It's easy to just say, "nope," and claim victory. Anyway, carry on.