In the 90s all we heard about was how sub Saharan African countries were HIV infested with several countries having infection rates well above 30%. At the time I recall thinking that in 20 or 30 years the populations in these countries would be decimated. The uninflected old would die of old age and the very highly infected middle aged would die of AIDS caused by HIV. With 30% infection rates it would be difficult for couples of two uninfected people to come together. The population of these places should have been absolutely crush. Since these hunter gathers sure can’t afford the Magic Johnson treatment, they should all be dead. Nope. Didn’t happen.
“It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period.”
- Richard Feynman