Official 2021 Nuttycombe Invite Discussion Thread: BYU vs NC State (W), Iowa State vs Oregon vs Stanford (M)

MidFootStriker wrote:

SmAll compared to Nationals!.... damn everybody love to jump on things out of context and focus on minutiae.

Damn, some people seem to get triggered so easily. Just chill out, man. It's a simple discussion.

I'm just saying to start the post focusing on an adjective when a lot of discussion has been about Nationals, just seems a little bit overly critical

At this meet you didn't have by U, Stanford, Colorado, New Mexico, Arkansas, Boise State,

MidFootStriker wrote:

Yeah there's girls from Georgia Tech, Binghamton, Weber State, Northern Arizona, florida state, a few others that were top 20 last year that I don't think we're at this meet. I will say though looking at it more BYU's 6th Runner was like 115, so they really need their top five all in good shape.... nc state has way more depth

I included O'Neal from NAU. Who from Fl St? They ran at ND.

Also, not that many of your adds count in team scoring! so perhaps we are saying different things as far as "top 20" go.

MidFootStriker wrote:

I'm just saying to start the post focusing on an adjective when a lot of discussion has been about Nationals, just seems a little bit overly critical

At this meet you didn't have BYU, Stanford, Colorado, New Mexico, Arkansas, Boise State,

Michigan State, UNC, Northern Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State, michigan..... that's like 11 of the top 17 teams

Not to mention you didn't have the top Runners from unheralded schools like Air Force and Binghamton... just saying it doesn't compared to Nationals

She didnt run all four years. She started competitively well into HS and missed a year. Im not counting running around the yard as a little kid BTW. You are conveniently ignoring key parts of my argument or...that you know nothing about. If you look at elite runners development, she is an outlier. There are some signs there she has a high ceiling. Thats all im saying. If you want to have a discussion, lets have it-the next 3 yrs of womens NCAA XC is going to be a barn burner.. Not many places for deep dive into College womens XC! So try to be civil, and not start your post with a sentence you would never use if you were talking to me in person.

If you go through the top 50 finishers from Nationals last year I guarantee more than 30 of them were not at this meet

And probably more probably 33... I'm just saying at most you're running against 33% of the competition you'll face at Nationals

MidFootStriker wrote:

I'm just saying to start the post focusing on an adjective when a lot of discussion has been about Nationals, just seems a little bit overly critical

At this meet you didn't have BYU, Stanford, Colorado, New Mexico, Arkansas, Boise State,

Michigan State, UNC, Northern Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State, michigan..... that's like 11 of the top 17 teams

Not to mention you didn't have the top Runners from unheralded schools like Air Force and Binghamton... just saying it doesn't compared to Nationals[/quote]

Geez, I didnt say half the top teams, but since you insist I think 3 of the top 4 were there (NC St, NM (they were there!!!!!), Ala) plus Minn and WA, so that is half the top 10 per latest rankings.

BTW, Norris from Air Force is not listed on their roster! No doubt she is serving. I have not counted individual runners as I am more concerned with place in the team scoring.

I am not arguing your conclusion about whether BYU might win, or where Tuohy (or anyone) might finish, but the "facts" you use to support your opinions are pretty loose.

Dude, you said that she only has a few years of running experience

But yet up on the internet it shows that she started running in 7th grade and ran a full season. Then she ran cross-country, indoors, and Outdoors, full seasons, for 10th, 11, and 12 grade... including running at New Balance Nationals three years in a row, and running at nxr and Foot Locker three years in a row

So that is someone who did 10 seasons of documented running, and very well might of run more since she is an international student and is from Poland

Anyway she started running organized track as early as a school kid can in the United States, in 7th grade. And then she ran three full seasons in high school including National Elite level competition

But yet you keep pushing forth this narrative that somehow she's a wunderkind who just started running and immediately had amazing success

It's just not accurate. She Started running in 7th grade end of story. She ran three full years , 9 seasons of hs.... she had steady progression

And who knows maybe she ran 8th and 9th grade and there's just no documentation because it was overseas or she was traveling...

You're giving a completely false impression that is clearly inaccurate and contradicted by obvious evidence

Well you seem to love jumping on the peripheral points. I don't think my evidence is loose. B y u, won by 70 and there top Runner was injured... where do you see NC State making up those 70 points.

MidFootStriker wrote:

Well you seem to love jumping on the peripheral points. I don't think my evidence is loose. B y u, won by 70 and there top Runner was injured... where do you see NC State making up those 70 points.

NC State had a 32 second gap from Tuohy to Clairmonte, and another 16 seconds to Shaw. That is where they lost. The top three were actually ahead of BYU by 4 points.

Clairemonte was their #1 runner in 2020 Fall season, but was recovering from several months of sickness in March.

Currently they have 3 runners with 18 seconds of Tuohy (at ND 5K). And that does not include the potential of a healthy Clairemonte who does not get tripped up like she was at ND. I think Tuohy is a little faster than last year as she is much closer to Chmiel and Steelman than she was in March.

Based on last year, moving the NC State 4th and 5th runners up to 15 seconds off Tuohy would place them both about 30 in team scoring, versus 51 and 79 where they actually placed. By my math, that is just about 70 points. This neglects any possible improvement in Tuohy's place. It might not be enough, but could be very close.

Orton no doubt will finish very near the top vs 14th in the team race so all else equal BYU will score lower.

For reference, last year's results

They won't. BYU will beat them by 35 points.

State is gonna get Shaw or Clairmont to step up... either of those girls is capable of top 50... maybe even AA... Chmiel is gonna outkick Orton and touhy and Steelman will win the middle game... that leaves Latour fighting it out as their 4th runner she also needs to be close t AA..... possible.... very possible... although it's also possible BYU CRUSHES THEM WITH another 70 point win... who knows...

How did Shaw hit a 1540 5 k, but isn't a solid AA cross-country runner, can someone explain... she was also made it to Nationals 5k... I don't get that... grass allergy?

ContextisKing wrote:

How did Shaw hit a 1540 5 k, but isn't a solid AA cross-country runner, can someone explain... she was also made it to Nationals 5k... I don't get that... grass allergy?

By the same measure, how does Chmiel finish in top 10, but can barely break 16 min on track?

Some people are just better at one or the other. Chmiel has always done better in XC (not to say she was bad in HS track).

I think they found Chimel's track event in the 10000.

Nationals is going to come down to NC State vs. BYU. If they are healthy and esp. if they can get Starliper involved, then NC Stare is the favorite imo even against the Soccer Mom Express. But that's thething. It all comes down to one race.

Bower Man II wrote:

ny guy wrote:

I'm most interested to see how Stanford runs. Just how good can Heymach and Dudek be? Heymach is my favorite to win NCAA.

JHey to beat Mercy Chelangat/AL for the title? Love your optimism, would like to see it happen, but man, that's strong!

I'm not even really a Stanford fan, tend to lean CU out west. JHey found something last spring with effortless prs at 1500 and 5k. Barring injury I assume it rolls over into November. Also last year's Donaghu/Dudek is now JHey/Dudek for training and racing partners. I think they can both be very, very good. We'll learn something on Fri, but they will clearly be looking to peak in the pac, regl, nat (lol 1st indoor 5k) window.

ny guy wrote:

I'm not even really a Stanford fan, tend to lean CU out west. JHey found something last spring with effortless prs at 1500 and 5k. Barring injury I assume it rolls over into November. Also last year's Donaghu/Dudek is now JHey/Dudek for training and racing partners. I think they can both be very, very good. We'll learn something on Fri, but they will clearly be looking to peak in the pac, regl, nat (lol 1st indoor 5k) window.

Don't think we'll learn as much as we hoped.

JHey is the lone Stanford woman entered in the Santa Clara (CA) Bronco Invitational this Saturday.

So, likely she is coming off injury or possibly a long break after the Trials, is still rounding into shape, and will use the Bronco meet as a test run prior to Pac-12s.

Several of the Stanford men entered at Nuttycombe are also entered in the Bronco meet - most are the true frosh -- so Stanford men running Nuttycombe will likely be their current top-7.

how is Oklahoma State (#4) - a team ranked higher than Iowa State (#6) and Oregon (#9) - not mentioned in the thread title?

MidFootStriker wrote:

SmAll compared to Nationals!.... damn everybody love to jump on things out of context and focus on minutiae. Still want someone to explain where NC State is going to get that 70 points from. Anyway it was a smaller talent pool than is going to be at Nationals.

I already explained it to you HOW!!!!! In an earlier post that you could not refute:

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Come on man!!!! Really?!?! First, I’m not blaming BYU for focusing on CC. I’m just saying they trained for 6 months for Nationals, NC State did not. They were training for Indoor and CC. Different story this season for the Pack because CC is in November as it usually is.

Second, what an uninformed statement that they are not better, especially there top runners. Everyone is better! Steelman was 5th at Nationals, and she ran faster at there home opener then last year. So, Steelman ran faster and Chmiel and Tuohy beat her. Chmiel beat her at ND as well and she’s better than last season. Tuohy is healthy and has beaten Steelman and Chmiel this season and they were 5 th and 9 th last year at NCAA?!?! Their not better up front? Their last race LaTour was 3 seconds behind Tuohy? And Ally Hays a transfer from Colombia was 5 th not far back from the other four.

And here is the only factor that matters…. At ND there was only a 18 second gap between the Wolfpack’s 1 and 5. Tuohy, Steelman, and Chmiel could all be in the top 10 at NCAA. And imagine if the gap between their 1 and 5 is 18 seconds?!?! BYU will lose by the margin they won by last season. And none of this factors in Dominique who had a hard fall at ND.

I don’t know how you can say that NC State is not way better than last season. And this could change Friday, but BYU does not look like they have improved at all.

It’s amazing to me that you want proof or convinced that NC State can make up 70 points from the past. The facts are this, the Pack only had a 18 second margin from their 1 to 5. Explain to me how BYU is going to beat that after their huge margin between Orton and their #5 at the invite they ran?!?!?! They were horrible. Convince us that BYU is the same or better….,.the bottom line is that you can’t. The results are the results!