Realistic marathon pace

runner jonny wrote: Or go for it at say 2:55 pace for the first half, then see how I feel?

Yes, do that. Go out in 1:27 and negative split if you can, or hold on for sub-3 in the last 10k as the case may be.

I would start out a little conservative first, then see if you can reach your goal, if you've got something left, the last 6 miles.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

runner jonny wrote: Or go for it at say 2:55 pace for the first half, then see how I feel?

Yes, do that. Go out in 1:27 and negative split if you can, or hold on for sub-3 in the last 10k as the case may be.

Agree, knock off that sub3, then be more aggressive with your goal next time.

When I broke 1:21 for the 1st time, I did 2:53 in a marathon 4 weeks later. I was young. The half probably took more out of me than I gave it credit for and I also paced the marathon poorly. I split some 6:15 early miles on my way to a 1st half right in 1:24-high. I had 2:48-49 in me that day. I say go for it. The half seems a good bit stronger than the 10k.

My advice: go out in 6:30 pace on the nose. I think it'll feel easy enough and isn't too far from 2:55 pace not to try for it.

I feel like for this to work I would have to feel amazing on the day - so will need to wait and see. I am 37, in case that influences anything. The half time was way beyond what I thought I could do. A few months ago I would have said that sub 3 was unlikely so 2:50 sounds completely insane! But maybe I am being a little pessimistic though

This sounds like the sensible plan - and I would be abslutely delighted with 2:55... I'm not sure how much to trust the prediction algorithms anyway. I have a feeling that on the day I will be tempted to go out slightly faster if I'm feeling good though.

runner jonny wrote:

I am 37, in case that influences anything.

Not really. Carlos Lopes set the WR when he was 38, which means that in the event you finish in ~2:54 feeling like you left something on the table, you should still be able to run your 2:07:12 next year.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

runner jonny wrote:

I am 37, in case that influences anything.

Not really. Carlos Lopes set the WR when he was 38, which means that in the event you finish in ~2:54 feeling like you left something on the table, you should still be able to run your 2:07:12 next year.

haha! Since the WR is a bit lower these days give me til at least 39 to break it please... But I take the point :) Hopefully I could get a good for age time that would get me in to some other majors next year! I do need to find some more races to aim for...

I ran a similar 10k in the build up to my one and only marathon. I was also 37. I did a half marathon in training 4 weeks out in 124 flat. I ran 250 for the marathon but it should have been a little quicker as i had trouble with my hr strap falling off and had to stop multiple times. First half was 126 second 124. I had completed 2 20 milers plus 2 18 milers in build up. Age will not be a problem imo. What could come into play is how you felt during your hm prep? For my 124 i was in conversation the whole time with a running partner i.e. it felt really comfortable. On the marathon day i remember hitting 22 miles and chatting with the guy beside me. Imo this is what a marathon should feel like if you have done the work upfront. thats my 2 cents

For the HM - I felt pretty breezy and was chatting to the guy next to me until about mile 8... then i put in a big effort. It is hard to judge by pace since it was hilly but I decided to go for it in the last 5 miles - I was pretty cooked by the end but seem to be recovering ok. Sounds like 2:50 may be possible... It's a tempting number to aim for but I really don't want to risk missing sub 3 cos I blow up at mile 22

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runner jonny wrote:

Sounds like 2:50 may be possible... It's a tempting number to aim for but I really don't want to risk missing sub 3 cos I blow up at mile 22

It doesn't matter if you blow up at 22 if you can still run injury free to the finish. So what if you run the first 22 miles 4 minutes too fast and then lose 4 minutes in 4 miles? It hurts more but you still get pretty much the same time.

Perfect pace judgement is an elusive thing in a marathon. You don't know how the weather is going to change during the race.

Don't worry about it too much. The only thing that can really destroy your race is something that you do wrong in training that causes overtight muscles during the race.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

runner jonny wrote:

I am 37, in case that influences anything.

Not really. Carlos Lopes set the WR when he was 38, which means that in the event you finish in ~2:54 feeling like you left something on the table, you should still be able to run your 2:07:12 next year.

And a 39 year old is going to set the WR in less then 2 weeks.

Reetuurrn of the Mack

It doesn't matter if you blow up at 22 if you can still run injury free to the finish. So what if you run the first 22 miles 4 minutes too fast and then lose 4 minutes in 4 miles? It hurts more but you still get pretty much the same time.

Perfect pace judgement is an elusive thing in a marathon. You don't know how the weather is going to change during the race.

Don't worry about it too much. The only thing that can really destroy your race is something that you do wrong in training that causes overtight muscles during the race.

I am lacking experience beyond the 22 mile mark so that is good to hear!

runner jonny wrote:

It doesn't matter if you blow up at 22 if you can still run injury free to the finish. So what if you run the first 22 miles 4 minutes too fast and then lose 4 minutes in 4 miles? It hurts more but you still get pretty much the same time.

Perfect pace judgement is an elusive thing in a marathon. You don't know how the weather is going to change during the race.

Don't worry about it too much. The only thing that can really destroy your race is something that you do wrong in training that causes overtight muscles during the race.

I am lacking experience beyond the 22 mile mark so that is good to hear!

Just remember, when ya get to 20 miles, yer halfway there.

In my last marathon in London it was warm and sunny. I got to 20 miles and I felt great. 21 miles, still felt good, but suddenly I hit a wall of humidity and it took forever to reach 22.

Another runner came flying past and I thought oh sh!t. In moments he had a 50 meter lead, but then he suddenly slowed too and I could see a line of runners stretching out along the embankment far ahead, so I focused on them and I could see they all had the same problem as me, the wall of humidity. So that made the last 4 miles seem more like an adventure than a struggle.

So, trying to run even pace that day didn't work, but it was still a good experience.

I'm hoping for gloriously grey October weather. I live in Scotland so that tells you all you need to know about my heat tolerance...

My time was 2:52:29. First half was 01:25:42. I dropped off slightly in the last couple of miles but no real dramas.. Very pleased with the result! Cheers for the advice!