ANDRE DE GRASSE 9.74 at Eugene! The successor of BOLT?

morningwateryBM wrote:

If Lyles goes 19.3x in the next few years, regardless of in a one-off or at a champs, then my "far higher ceiling" is spot on.

If he doesn't, then you're right.

ADG doesn't have 19.3x in him. Ever. He's just not that kind of runner. Lyles having run a 19.5 two years ago, indicates he very well COULD have that in him, assuming the last two years were a training mess for him more than others.

If today's 19.52 is the best Lyles can muster as a "max" over the next four years? Then sure, he and SDG will have some good head to heads, and I was an idiot.

But I still see 19.3x capability in Lyles, so I'm sticking to my "far higher ceiling" comment. If he goes there in the future, ADG can't follow.

"If I'm right then I'm right, if you're right then you're right"

Wow what a great discussion.

I see degrasse running 19.50 and lyles 19.35

Yep - old morningglory isn't the sharpest tool in the shed...

rhimby wrote:

"If I'm right then I'm right, if you're right then you're right"

Wow what a great discussion.

You should become a tarot card reader with that insight! ADG runs .01 faster (wind corrected) than Lyles WITH 5 previous rounds in his legs yet your prediction (based on nothing) is Lyles will ultimately run a lot faster. Lots of smart people on this forum.

paris2024hawk wrote:

I see degrasse running 19.50 and lyles 19.35

What is YOUR point?

How is "he ran 19.5 two years ago mid season" not clearly implying that pretty reasonable progressions for a guy his age would mean he should have the potential for 19.4s and 19.3s...whereas ADG has never even broken 19.6s and thus his progression couldn't match that into the future?

If you want to think he's (Lyles) lost his possible progression arc over the last two years, try arguing that. But 19.5 TWO YEARS AGO is a valid argument to think he can run FASTER. And since that's already faster than ADG has EVER recorded, that certainly ALSO implies hes got a built in advantage against ADG in all future competitions. Since he could still muster a 19.52 NOW on a seemingly lost year (so to speak), that means he hasn't exactly fallen off the map for future PR type progressions.

I see Lyles beating ADG in the future in all major comps. Good job ADG for his gold and his 19.6x. But the future isnt his....which is what this post was staking claim to.

beingaguy wrote:

You should become a tarot card reader with that insight!

ADG runs .01 faster (wind corrected) than Lyles WITH 5 previous rounds in his legs yet your prediction (based on nothing) is Lyles will ultimately run a lot faster.

Lots of smart people on this forum.

paris2024hawk wrote:

I see degrasse running 19.50 and lyles 19.35

Nobody cares about wind projections pertaining to 200s. The curve makes it wonky AF. Get over it.

My point? Simply that your comment is silly that Lyles has a "far higher" ceiling. Dude just admit you're wrong and a bit silly! But just for fun to debunk your most recent comments: 1 - You keep comparing a time from over 2 years ago with less headwind and NO rounds to a time with more headwind and multiple rounds! If you want to compare apples to apples compare 19.62 (-0.9 WITH 5 rounds) to 19.52 (+1.5 fresh!). I think any reasonable person would actually say DeGrasse currently faster. 2 - Oh, and if you want to base progression off old times and "lost" years then Yohan Blake is due to break 19 soon! The only thing your post is staking claim to is the proof that you're a poor statistician (hope you weren't a math major!)

Yep, you showed your cards with that comment that you know absolutely nothing about the sprints. Yes newbie, tail winds actually do help 200m!

morningwateryBM wrote:

Nobody cares about wind projections pertaining to 200s. The curve makes it wonky AF. Get over it.

Nice race by Andre.

Typically overt fanboys are the "sillier" ones. I'm not even a big fan of Lyles. He just projects as faster, and his return to some semblance of past form today indicates he's likely still to project out as such in future showdowns.

When he beats ADG at the next major champs like he did in 2019 in Doha, remember that ol' wateryBM teaching you a thing or two.

hahaha oh man. You crack me up buddy. Now he "projects" as faster. Next you'll be saying he has a faster looking haircut. I would love to bet you $100 on the 2022 worlds.

morningwateryBM wrote:

Typically overt fanboys are the "sillier" ones. I'm not even a big fan of Lyles. He just projects as faster, and his return to some semblance of past form today indicates he's likely still to project out as such in future showdowns.

When he beats ADG at the next major champs like he did in 2019 in Doha, remember that ol' wateryBM teaching you a thing or two.

beingaguy wrote:

Yep, you showed your cards with that comment that you know absolutely nothing about the sprints. Yes newbie, tail winds actually do help 200m!

morningwateryBM wrote:

Nobody cares about wind projections pertaining to 200s. The curve makes it wonky AF. Get over it.

The curve throws the physics off compared to the 100. Gimme a break. Nobody does basic BS for 200s....if you aren't a newbie than you're a wannabe bringing that bologna into this convo.

Basic for 100 is a good tool. Over 200? Well...hassling over ".01" isn't comically banal, but rather sad.

What's sad is that I have to keep reminding you that tailwinds in the 200m affect the race and you're so dumb and/or inexperienced with the sprints you keep arguing this. It's like I'm speaking to a child that just asked his dad, "why didn't that 200m record count because of the wind".

morningwateryBM wrote:

beingaguy wrote:

Yep, you showed your cards with that comment that you know absolutely nothing about the sprints. Yes newbie, tail winds actually do help 200m!

The curve throws the physics off compared to the 100. Gimme a break. Nobody does basic BS for 200s....if you aren't a newbie than you're a wannabe bringing that bologna into this convo.

Basic for 100 is a good tool. Over 200? Well...hassling over ".01" isn't comically banal, but rather sad.

Below I've included a link to a short video that explains wind resistance to children (it's for grade 6s). If you can't understand the concepts in this video then I would suggest paying a visit to your local track and asking one of the high school sprinters who can try to explain it to you.

https://study.com/academy/lesson/what-is-air-resistance-lesson-for-kids.html

beingaguy wrote:

Below I've included a link to a short video that explains wind resistance to children (it's for grade 6s). If you can't understand the concepts in this video then I would suggest paying a visit to your local track and asking one of the high school sprinters who can try to explain it to you.

https://study.com/academy/lesson/what-is-air-resistance-lesson-for-kids.html

Hmm. So....your contention would be that wind data for a straight line race (100m) is as equally applicable as wind data for a race with a curve (200m on a standard 400m track)? Is...is that your point fanboiwannabeguy?

paris2024hawk wrote:

I see degrasse running 19.50 and lyles 19.35

No chance and slim chance.

beingaguy wrote:

You should become a tarot card reader with that insight!

ADG runs .01 faster (wind corrected) than Lyles WITH 5 previous rounds in his legs yet your prediction (based on nothing) is Lyles will ultimately run a lot faster.

Lots of smart people on this forum.

paris2024hawk wrote:

I see degrasse running 19.50 and lyles 19.35

Lyles is younger than degrasse his basic pr is 19.49 he has struggled mentally through the pandemic and might just be getting back in track now.

Degrasse did just run 19.57 basic so he may end up running faster than that but he could be in his prime.

My prediction isn't based of much so I could be wrong.

paris2024hawk wrote:

beingaguy wrote:

You should become a tarot card reader with that insight!

ADG runs .01 faster (wind corrected) than Lyles WITH 5 previous rounds in his legs yet your prediction (based on nothing) is Lyles will ultimately run a lot faster.

Lots of smart people on this forum.

Lyles is younger than degrasse his basic pr is 19.49 he has struggled mentally through the pandemic and might just be getting back in track now.

Degrasse did just run 19.57 basic so he may end up running faster than that but he could be in his prime.

My prediction isn't based of much so I could be wrong.

That's what I'm saying. Though, like I said, I don't use "basic" as a hard line thing in the 200 as much as I would over 100.

I also believe Lyles has a higher ceiling. Noah ran that 19.50 into a headwind also. I don’t understand why people think De grasse does when he just broke 19.8 this year and is older than Lyles.

I mean look at how many fast sub 20 times Lyles has ran compared De Grasse on the ALL TIME top 200 list.

Lyles is on the first page 13 times compared to De Grasse only 3 times

Why is it hard to believe Lyles has a higher ceiling?