Purrier looked terrible.

The Stache wrote:

Fair point on Muir. It seems to me when she's struggled, the race was slow and came down to a kick. But this is a 3:55 woman, right? If the race does go super fast between Hassan and Kipyegon as so many are predicting, that sets up perfectly for Muir to just get on that train and roll to a damn fast time. No tactics necessary. No top end kick necessary. Just grind. And she's good at that.

If it's fast, I pick Muir for Bronze, Hassan for Silver, Kipyegon for Gold.

In 2019 and 2017, she lost out on medals in much different types of races both because she was extremely aggressive and impatient. In 2019, a very fast race, despite the fact that she was coming off injury she went flat-out with 300m to go to try to go with Sifan Hassan. Like actually trying to stick with her and playing sacrificial lamb. In 2017, she panicked after getting shuffled back a bit on the penultimate lap. She went crazy to make sure she'd pass Simpson on the backstretch of the final lap and chase down the top 2, and as a result Simpson and Semenya ran her down. Hassan's tactics were bad too in this race too, as she went like 28/31 on the final lap.

another perspective wrote:

Purrier is a bit between a rock and a hard place. Doesn't seem to have the change of pace or ability to control races like some of the other women right now. She could just go out there and try front run a 3:56-58 like at Mt Sac/Trials, but that's obviously not going to phase Kipyegon or Hassan, won't rattle Muir unless her fitness has fallen somehow, while Freweyni and GDS just dropped 3:57/58 in a yoyo tactical race. Again, not ruling her out, but she's going to have to pull something special out of the bag that she hasn't shown yet this year.

To be clear the Purrier lead it out strategy is not for her to beat Kipyegon or Hassan. Kipyego is not getting beat, and if Hassan loses it's not going to be tactics it's going to be fatigue. But getting out front and setting a pace is a style she is comfortable with. Adding to the benefit is that the top two love running fast and will gladly take the lead from her at some point. From there she can tuck in and treat the race like Millrose. Her best hope is that Muir and others get in trouble behind her as she leads it out OR get too aggressive trying to chase down the top 2. Purrier at USAs/Mt Sac/Millrose showed a great ability to manage her energy and finish hard and that's what she'll need.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Tactical-less wrote:

See now you've changed it to 63.xx....what does that mean? 63.99? And what was her finishing speed off that? And also what do you mean running it all season? I only see her running 3:58 twice.

Twice is pretty good, and she did it at different points in the season. When someone refers to running 63s its pretty commonly understood it means 63-something. No 63.99 would be a lousy example, but I think anyone on her would take it as some average between 63.3 and 63.7.

Pretty clear what I meant.

Well she ran it once in May and once in June...it's now August.

I'm not going to argue semantics but usually people will post 63.xx or an exact fraction because in a race as short as 1500 a half second per lap makes a big difference at the speed they're running. Maybe a total distance of 10 meters.

AP5000 wrote:

Tactical-less wrote:

I will also say this, if an apparently doped up Houlihan could only go 3:55 with a strong kick at the end but was not a factor in Doha you're putting a lot of speculation on Purrier.

There is no scenario that exists where Purrier, unless she was actually sick, wins this race short of the top 5 just forgetting to set their alarm clock and show up. She was so far away from being a factor in this semifinal it's just silly to try and convince yourself or someone that she's a factor. You see all these people finish in 8th or 10th place in a final...that person is Purrier right now.

I have to agree. It would take a 3 second pr by Purrier plus some really poor races by several others for her to even medal. If she beats half the field and goes under 4:00 that would be a good effort.

commentor wrote:

cvvh wrote:

Could easily see anything from 3:50 to 3:54. Look at the Doha final. All main contenders seem to be in better shape than 2019 as well.

My sleeper medal pick is Gabriella Debeus Stafford. She looked amazing in the prelim and looked around in the semi to make sure she was safely into the top five before coasting in a 3:58 ish performance for third in her heat. Jess Hull also looks very relaxed, and could factor in the top five in the final. Hassan looked kind of tired after her race, but I still wouldn't count her out for at least silver.

You just have a fetish for hairy females.

calico cat wrote:

God I'm getting so sick of every other comment about any athlete accusing them of doping. Why even watch the sport if you hate it so much ?

Then when a big athlete finally gets busted like houlihan half of letsrun will go through insane mental gymnastics to prove she's but innocent when someone like kiprop gets busted no one sides with him even when his excuse is better than hers.

So many mindless, spiteful, xenophobes on this forum. It was much better in 2013 and it was still bad then lol.

Thank you

This site $hit the bed well before 2013

Has little to do with this side. Just read any american website on the internet with an article about chinese or china and you see the majority of US. Americans being their true xenophobe and vile self

i totally agree with this. it almost looked like she was crying

This is a very dumb comment. Of course her body changed from college to becoming a pro-runner. She was a student athlete for 4 years at UNH. Now she's an athlete. If he body didn't change that would be concerning.

truth here wrote:

runnerexpert wrote:

Mcgee looked that way in the heats, they know they are up against it whether natural or chemical or both.

LMAO Purrier is more likely to be doping than the others. Did you see how her body has changed since college?

rhimby wrote:

OLD SMTC SOB wrote:

And you know this how specifically?

It's common knowledge.

Come on man. You have the audacity to accuse someone of something gravely serious and then when probed for evidence respond with a non answer. Obviously full of sh*t.

The Ethiopian runner looked really good behind Kipyegon. Purrier looks like she's past her season peak. She doesn't look like a runner capable of 3:55 right now -- maybe barely under 4 minutes. The way she was dropped when the lead pack started kicking tells me she's cooked -- near the back in the final. Kipyegon, the Ethiopian, Hassan, GDS, Muir in the final.

I don't know which world you people live in, but purrier will not break 4 mins. She's just off sweating a 4:01, and you want to believe she'll pull off a 4:55 two days later in tough weather?

I get it that she's homegirl. When it was pointed out that confirm struggled in her heat while denying it, and after falling in Monaco, many of you chose to overlook the obvious signs. Then she bombed in spectacular fashion. Purrier is not coming within 8th at best

odd wrote:

Purrier looked very nervous / had an odd facial expression before the race. Something seemed off.

I didn't notice this the first time but I re-watched and yeah, completely agree. She looked scared and/or sick.

Purrier is a perfect example of how badly the American's have timed this Olympic cycle, they looked fatigued and not having a holding camp cost them, Purrier was definitely a medal hope, I think Muir could have been taken for the Bronze. The first 2 are locks, Kipeygon will go 3.51 if she needs to, Hassan Silver.

purplepassion wrote:

odd wrote:

Purrier looked very nervous / had an odd facial expression before the race. Something seemed off.

I didn't notice this the first time but I re-watched and yeah, completely agree. She looked scared and/or sick.

She looks like that anytime she isn't smiling or wearing the goggle shades. Resting anxiety face.

Ditch the sunglasses. Not giving up on her.

It's getting lost in how well so many others from around the world are doing, but the humid heat and the huge time zone shift is a factor for a lot of runners, and it could be hitting Purrier harder than expected. I don't know that a holding camp would have helped her, unless they did it in Thailand or something.

Im surprised how little attention Gebreezibeher is getting. She looked very impressive in the heat and semi. She may even be more likely to get a medal than Muir. Purrier is not going to trouble the medals. If she gets a PB from this race, it's a good Olympics for her but there are five women who are significantly better than her in this field. Something to build on for World's next year

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

A scenario: Purrier seizes the leads and decides to set an honest tempo. If she runs 63.5 on average, she comes through at 3:10.5 at 1200 and 2:55.0 at 1100. Most likely Hassan and Kipyegon would pass her somewhere in the third lap in this scenario ~ maybe 500 or 600 to go. Her best hope from this might be to hope Muir goes after them as they drop a 58-59 last lap to run 3:52-53 or so and she can summon a kick and run a PB of 3:55-56 and catch a fading Muir.

This is a great take, and tactically the right move if Purrier is going to medal. She doesn’t necessarily need to take the lead, but she does need to ensure that the lead pack is near that pace. If someone goes faster, she’s screwed. If it is slower and becomes a big sit and kick, she’s screwed.