Purrier looked terrible.

cvvh wrote:

birdbeard wrote:

Hopefully just a bad day and she’ll be in 3:56-7 form for the final

She might be - but the medals are going to be several seconds faster than that.

Kipyegon just ran 3:56 without really trying. She was sending a message. I think it will take at least sub-3:55 to medal and probably faster but even if it goes out slow, Purrier needs to be prepared to run the fastest 800 of her life to have any chance.

Remember how fast Hassan caught up to the field? Kiyegon is well aware of what Hassan is capable of. This will not be a sit and kick affair. And Muir knows this is her shot for a medal so she will be ready to go for it.

Rough-looking effort from Purrier, but I will say she did kick the last 20 to pick up 6th which showed some fight. Definitely an off-day though, and hopefully something was just off with her. If I’m her coach I’m telling her to run her own race in the finals. Obviously if Hassan runs a la Doha just treat it like a time trial. But if it’s slow just get out there and run 63s.

I think you’re right. Top two medals are already taken and the 3rd 🥉 place gonna be tough to get for sure with such deep field. I think that the pace doesn’t really matter Hassan and Faith can out kick anyone but I do believe is gonna be a fast race 3:52-3:54 range. So 3rd place can be accomplished by a runner that doesn’t follow closely the leaders.

Agreed with the sentiment shared by most.

This wasn't an example of someone laying off the gas at the end because they knew they had the little q (like Fisher in the 5000m) - Purrier was in heat 1 and very clearly tried to compete to hold on to the last Q until she blew up, and then she raced to the line for 6th for the fastest non-auto spot. That was all she had out there today: a 4:01. I've seen people bounce back from semis like that before, or look great and then bomb in a final, but more often than not the form is commensurate come the finals.

Bummer. She's looked in ~3:55-56 shape at times.

abcrunning wrote:

I think you’re right. Top two medals are already taken...

I think you are mostly right, except it's the top 2.95 medals thatare already taken. It's hard to see anyone beating Hassan, Kipyegon or Muir, who's been running very well this year.

I'd say the top three are already taken, but it's Muir and it's an international championship, so...

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Rough-looking effort from Purrier, but I will say she did kick the last 20 to pick up 6th which showed some fight. Definitely an off-day though, and hopefully something was just off with her. If I’m her coach I’m telling her to run her own race in the finals. Obviously if Hassan runs a la Doha just treat it like a time trial. But if it’s slow just get out there and run 63s.

That's 4:12 mile pace which is 3:53 for 1500. (And the conversion isn't 17.xx seconds because the overall pace is slower than that)

Tactical-less wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Rough-looking effort from Purrier, but I will say she did kick the last 20 to pick up 6th which showed some fight. Definitely an off-day though, and hopefully something was just off with her. If I’m her coach I’m telling her to run her own race in the finals. Obviously if Hassan runs a la Doha just treat it like a time trial. But if it’s slow just get out there and run 63s.

That's 4:12 mile pace which is 3:53 for 1500. (And the conversion isn't 17.xx seconds because the overall pace is slower than that)

Lol 63s is literally 3:56, and that's if they are 63.00. You don't need to do a conversion - you can just do maths.

Lol strange critique, Tactical-less. I didn't mean it had to be 63.0 either. Purrier is comfortable running 63.xx from the front in a 1500 or at least she was all season. Hopefully that version of her returns for the Final.

colorunner123 wrote:

She may or may not make the final based on her time, but she will not be a factor. Disappointing. Up until now I thought she had an outside shot at a medal.

Drinking too much milk 🥛

John Macardle wrote:

Tactical-less wrote:

That's 4:12 mile pace which is 3:53 for 1500. (And the conversion isn't 17.xx seconds because the overall pace is slower than that)

Lol 63s is literally 3:56, and that's if they are 63.00. You don't need to do a conversion - you can just do maths.

That's if you run the entire race at 63 you'll get 3:56. But she still would be running 4:12 mile pace and have to try and kick off that at the end.

A scenario: Purrier seizes the leads and decides to set an honest tempo. If she runs 63.5 on average, she comes through at 3:10.5 at 1200 and 2:55.0 at 1100. Most likely Hassan and Kipyegon would pass her somewhere in the third lap in this scenario ~ maybe 500 or 600 to go. Her best hope from this might be to hope Muir goes after them as they drop a 58-59 last lap to run 3:52-53 or so and she can summon a kick and run a PB of 3:55-56 and catch a fading Muir.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Lol strange critique, Tactical-less. I didn't mean it had to be 63.0 either. Purrier is comfortable running 63.xx from the front in a 1500 or at least she was all season. Hopefully that version of her returns for the Final.

See now you've changed it to 63.xx....what does that mean? 63.99? And what was her finishing speed off that? And also what do you mean running it all season? I only see her running 3:58 twice.

Purrier is a bit between a rock and a hard place. Doesn't seem to have the change of pace or ability to control races like some of the other women right now. She could just go out there and try front run a 3:56-58 like at Mt Sac/Trials, but that's obviously not going to phase Kipyegon or Hassan, won't rattle Muir unless her fitness has fallen somehow, while Freweyni and GDS just dropped 3:57/58 in a yoyo tactical race. Again, not ruling her out, but she's going to have to pull something special out of the bag that she hasn't shown yet this year.

The two big questions are around Hassan. She looked tired, said she was exhausted, but is she "tired" but still able to front run a 3:53 like in Florence, or "tired" like doubling back in Brussels 2018 after the DL 5000m and getting her doors blown off in the last 200m by Muir and Houlihan. I still put her at silver with Faith overwhelming favourite, but I could potentially see her bite off more than she can chew pace wise, blow up and miss out on a medal. The second big question is pacing - will Hassan try to recreate Florence and Doha, pushing hard the whole way? Or being tired and having to run a 10,000m the next day make her hang back, content to wait and drop a 57.1 on the field on the last lap? Because there is a big difference between Hassan taking out the race at 3:50-3:54 pace and say Purrier taking it out at 3:56-3:59 pace.

Muir has to be the favourite for bronze, and the slower the race the better her chances of sneaking up the podium. However I don't think it's a foregone conclusion. If she gets too excited like in Rio (and like Reekie in the 800) trying to go too hard too early, 100% there are women good enough to clean up the mess. For her positioning is going to be paramount. Her worst case scenario would be finding herself behind Gebreezibeher and GDS going into the final bend. and having to get around both to medal.

Did GDS max out in Glasgow with the Andy Young group? I don't think that holds much water. Besides the fact she has knocked 2s off of her 800m PB since leaving, Stafford was only in Glasgow for one year. Can you really max out your potential in your first year post-collegiate with just one year of a training group? I find that hard to believe. By her post race interview yesterday she seems really happy with how training is going as well.

Tl;dr - Faith, Sifan, Muir still the safe bet, but if Hassan is too tired or Muir gets her tactics wrong, Gebreezibeher and DeBues-Stafford look very capable of upsetting the apple cart.

I will also say this, if an apparently doped up Houlihan could only go 3:55 with a strong kick at the end but was not a factor in Doha you're putting a lot of speculation on Purrier.

Tastes Like Chicken wrote:

I think you are mostly right, except it's the top 2.95 medals thatare already taken. It's hard to see anyone beating Hassan, Kipyegon or Muir, who's been running very well this year.

I'd say the top three are already taken, but it's Muir and it's an international championship, so...

Fair point on Muir. It seems to me when she's struggled, the race was slow and came down to a kick. But this is a 3:55 woman, right? If the race does go super fast between Hassan and Kipyegon as so many are predicting, that sets up perfectly for Muir to just get on that train and roll to a damn fast time. No tactics necessary. No top end kick necessary. Just grind. And she's good at that.

If it's fast, I pick Muir for Bronze, Hassan for Silver, Kipyegon for Gold.

Tactical-less wrote:

John Macardle wrote:

Lol 63s is literally 3:56, and that's if they are 63.00. You don't need to do a conversion - you can just do maths.

That's if you run the entire race at 63 you'll get 3:56. But she still would be running 4:12 mile pace and have to try and kick off that at the end.

Just say, "I'm wrong" next time instead of trying to backpedal.

Besides, 63s is not 4:12 mile pace, so you're digging the hole deeper.

I'd be willing to bet it's the Japanese runner that will take the lead early and keep it for about 800.

Don't forget about the Aussies who looked very comfortable in the semi's.

OLD SMTC SOB wrote:

rhimby wrote:

She was doped to hell at the trials. Likely mistimed her cycle.

And you know this how specifically?

It's common knowledge.

Tactical-less wrote:

See now you've changed it to 63.xx....what does that mean? 63.99? And what was her finishing speed off that? And also what do you mean running it all season? I only see her running 3:58 twice.

Twice is pretty good, and she did it at different points in the season. When someone refers to running 63s its pretty commonly understood it means 63-something. No 63.99 would be a lousy example, but I think anyone on her would take it as some average between 63.3 and 63.7.

Pretty clear what I meant.