Man Overboard wrote:
For teenage males, the risk of myocarditis from two doses of mRNA vaccines is ~0.005%. (Roughly 30x baseline expectations for that age group as a whole, according to CDC).
Also according to CDC, hospitalization due to Covid for that same age/sex cohort is ~0.002%.
So one could easily look at those numbers and conclude that the risk from Covid far exceeds the risk from vaccination.
But there's an important caveat: roughly 70% of Covid-hospitalized teens have pre-existing conditions-
So for healthy teen boys, the risk from vaccination could well exceed the risk from Covid, other things being equal.
The risks from both vaccines and Covid itself for that age group are pretty miniscule, of course.
The CDC document suggests that the COVID vaccine will prevent about 4 times as many hospitalizations as myocarditis cases it causes in males 12-17. Even at if you knock off the 70% of hospitalizations that are "pre-existing conditions" the vaccine is still favored (albeit by a slimmer margin).
This analysis doesn't take into account any sort of other complications of COVID, including auto-immune problems or various "long-COVID" issues, both of which tip the balance further toward the vaccine.