If you are vaccinated, why do you care that I am not?

Mathematically you should realize the cumlative risk of contracting COVID will only grow. Especially if you ever plan to travel internationally over the next 5 years.

If you acknowledge the virus carries much higher risk of long-term effects than the vaccine (you do)... then you must commit minimizing the long term chance of contracting COVID... which seems very difficult. Good luck!

(other option is you just suck at math)

You truly amaze me every time you post. If vaccination rates increase, my chances of getting the virus will go down. Otherwise what has your big pharma love push been about.

I do not acknowledge Covid is more dangerous long term then the vaccine. Nice try putting words in my mouth.

Yawn^7 wrote:

I do not acknowledge Covid is more dangerous long term then the vaccine. Nice try putting words in my mouth.

There are heaps of evidence to suggest this! Plenty of people struggle with medium-to-long term effects from COVID.

Remember: what you want to be true and what is actually are are often quite different.

Why do you discount the long term dangers of COVID infection?

You know it’s bad when the cdc, who has been very non-transparent is forced to say “hey they’re may be an issue here.” If they are willing to say it that means the know it could actually be a problem.

Read carefully, I never said anywhere my chances for heart problems increase with the vaccine versus with Covid. This is a concept you arm jabbers continually distort or ignore. I can either

A. get no vaccine and remain healthy

B. get no vaccine and potentially have heart issues

C. Get the vaccine and potentially have heart issues

D. get the vaccine and potentially remain healthy. Of those four choices, the choice where I continue on the path that has worked for me and doesn’t involve big pharma in my life is the clear winner.

Yawn^7 wrote:

2600 bro wrote:

Mathematically you should realize the cumlative risk of contracting COVID will only grow. Especially if you ever plan to travel internationally over the next 5 years.

If you acknowledge the virus carries much higher risk of long-term effects than the vaccine (you do)... then you must commit minimizing the long term chance of contracting COVID... which seems very difficult. Good luck!

(other option is you just suck at math)

You truly amaze me every time you post. If vaccination rates increase, my chances of getting the virus will go down. Otherwise what has your big pharma love push been about.

I do not acknowledge Covid is more dangerous long term then the vaccine. Nice try putting words in my mouth.

2600 is correct. As long as COVID is circulating (we will not eradicate it) your CUMULATIVE risk of COVID infection increases monotonically. You are more likely to have contracted COVID in 12 months than 1 month. The only reason this would not be true is if the virus is eradicated.

It remains to be seen if viral transmission will truly be beaten into the ground. Vaccine hesitancy, immune escape variants, and other factors may keep cases off the baseline for a long time. Relying on others to mitigate your risk is, uh, dumb.

What long term dangerous? Covid has to not been around for a little over a year. The vaccine followed pretty quickly. There are zero long term studies in either one. Why roll the dice with a drug when I can roll the dice just living normally.

Yawn^7 wrote:

You know it’s bad when the cdc, who has been very non-transparent is forced to say “hey they’re may be an issue here.” If they are willing to say it that means the know it could actually be a problem.

Read carefully, I never said anywhere my chances for heart problems increase with the vaccine versus with Covid. This is a concept you arm jabbers continually distort or ignore. I can either

A. get no vaccine and remain healthy

B. get no vaccine and potentially have heart issues

C. Get the vaccine and potentially have heart issues

D. get the vaccine and potentially remain healthy. Of those four choices, the choice where I continue on the path that has worked for me and doesn’t involve big pharma in my life is the clear winner.

Again ignoring all the other risks of COVID. Myocarditis is not the only thing you are gambling with.

Besides, the Delta variant seem reasonably more transmissible -- even among vaccinated people -- than wild type. Of course, vaccines still protect very, very well against serious cases, but if I were planning to freeload on sterilizing herd immunity, that would give me pause.

What do you think?

Good thing I’m not relying on others. They can choose to get vaccinated or not. That’s the whole point. I’ll continue to live my life

Yawn^7 wrote:

What long term dangerous? Covid has to not been around for a little over a year. The vaccine followed pretty quickly. There are zero long term studies in either one. Why roll the dice with a drug when I can roll the dice just living normally.

Considering COVID has caused plenty of "medium-term" effects in patients and the vaccine has not, what do you predict is more likely to cause long-term effects?

You clearly operate from priors that COVID is safe and the vaccine is secretly dangerous which greatly skews your ability to evaluate risk rationally.

Enough with the variant talk. That’s so 2020.

Isn’t it time for your monthly Covid booster courtesy of big pharma

Yawn^7 wrote:

2600 bro wrote:

Mathematically you should realize the cumlative risk of contracting COVID will only grow. Especially if you ever plan to travel internationally over the next 5 years.

If you acknowledge the virus carries much higher risk of long-term effects than the vaccine (you do)... then you must commit minimizing the long term chance of contracting COVID... which seems very difficult. Good luck!

(other option is you just suck at math)

You truly amaze me every time you post. If vaccination rates increase, my chances of getting the virus will go down. Otherwise what has your big pharma love push been about.

I do not acknowledge Covid is more dangerous long term then the vaccine. Nice try putting words in my mouth.

You completely fail to understand cumulative risk:

See previous point:

(other option is you just suck at math)

For the second point... you (unless you are truly dumb) know it's true but it would ruin your troll status to admit. Got it.

Yawn^7 wrote:

Good thing I’m not relying on others. They can choose to get vaccinated or not. That’s the whole point. I’ll continue to live my life

The point is that you're going to get exposed to COVID eventually. You claim this is a small risk because everyone else is vaccinated. If vaccinated people had less sterilizing immunity against a variant then your risk of exposure goes way up!

Gotta re-run your models in this case, but I suspect it's just shoehorning everything into the "I won't get vaccinated" result.

Is there a scenario where you would get the jab?

Yawn^7 wrote:

Enough with the variant talk. That’s so 2020.

Isn’t it time for your monthly Covid booster courtesy of big pharma

"You've brought up valid evidence that refutes my logic, I will now babble distracting non-sequiturs to avoid embarrassment."

You just don’t understand science or math or common sense for that matter. But CNN said something so you gotta push it. Why think critically when others can do it for you.

I’m sorry the schools where you live failed you. But it’s simple, I can play Russian roulette for a chance at increased Covid resistance (not complete immunity mind you) or I can trust the math and my body and not point that particular gun at my head.

Yawn^7 wrote:

You just don’t understand science or math or common sense for that matter. But CNN said something so you gotta push it. Why think critically when others can do it for you.

I’m sorry the schools where you live failed you. But it’s simple, I can play Russian roulette for a chance at increased Covid resistance (not complete immunity mind you) or I can trust the math and my body and not point that particular gun at my head.

You have yet to show you understand cumulative risk. This is getting funny.

Harambe wrote:

Yawn^7 wrote:

Good thing I’m not relying on others. They can choose to get vaccinated or not. That’s the whole point. I’ll continue to live my life

The point is that you're going to get exposed to COVID eventually. You claim this is a small risk because everyone else is vaccinated. If vaccinated people had less sterilizing immunity against a variant then your risk of exposure goes way up!

Gotta re-run your models in this case, but I suspect it's just shoehorning everything into the "I won't get vaccinated" result.

Is there a scenario where you would get the jab?

If there were long term studies with a minimum of 10 years of data and very low risk of side effects, I’d consider the shot. Since we don’t have those and I’m under 30, I’ll take my chances with a virus that is basically the flu to my age group. If you can’t understand this logic, the problem lies with you

So I took a shot at this myself.

Myocarditis from the vaccine.

DanM's link says there are 12.6 cases of myocarditis for every million doses of the vaccine.

That's .00126%.

If you get Pfizer or Moderna, you need two shots, so we double the rate to .00252%.

Myocarditis from the virus itself.

A study of 1597 college athletes showed that 2.3% had clinical and subclinical myocarditis after having had a Covid infection.

But not everyone gets Covid, even if you are unvaccinated. So you have to factor that in.

There have been about 33 million confirmed cases of Covid in this country. The total number of cases is higher, since there have been plenty of cases that were never tested. But I'll be conservative here and just use the 33 million number, which is roughly 10% of the population.

If you have a 10% chance of getting Covid, and if you get Covid you have a 2.3% chance of getting myocarditis, your chance of getting myocarditis from Covid is .23%.

Which gives you the better odds?

The .23% chance if you remain unvaccinated is higher than the .00252% chance if you get vaccinated.

In fact, it looks like your chance of skipping the vaccine and getting myocarditis from Covid is close to 100 times greater than the chance of getting myocarditis from the vaccine. Mathematically, it seems like a no brainer.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2780548

Yawn^7 wrote:

Harambe wrote:

The point is that you're going to get exposed to COVID eventually. You claim this is a small risk because everyone else is vaccinated. If vaccinated people had less sterilizing immunity against a variant then your risk of exposure goes way up!

Gotta re-run your models in this case, but I suspect it's just shoehorning everything into the "I won't get vaccinated" result.

Is there a scenario where you would get the jab?

If there were long term studies with a minimum of 10 years of data and very low risk of side effects, I’d consider the shot. Since we don’t have those and I’m under 30, I’ll take my chances with a virus that is basically the flu to my age group. If you can’t understand this logic, the problem lies with you

At this point it's getting a little hard to understand.

COVID, with known "medium term" effects (and myocarditis, etc) is "basically the flu." I.e. totally not a risk.

The vaccine, with way less adverse effects and lower prevalence of those present compared to COVID is Russian roulette.

It's completely unsubstantiated, but you've clearly made up your mind.

Nice work. To add, we are at estimated ~35-40% attack rate of COVID in the USA from serological studies and other modeling. Even today, testing probably misses ~2 cases per positive. So your risk is arguably higher: in one year almost half the US got COVID. It's not rare.