It's not that I disagree with you at all based on last weekend's results. It's frustrating, actually, that I agree and this is how it seems like it'll go. This has become such typical early season MIAC pundit rhetoric, and it's been the same for the past what, 4 years now. It points one way early season, and time and time again it pivots the opposite way at MIACs and the postseason.
"Muh Olaf looks too deep"
"Carleton looks bad & needs to be firing on all cylinders or they're done"
"Johnnies (and once in a while Bethel) could be a dark horse to win conference."
For Olaf and Gustavus, / anyone else. Even without Mueller and Wilkinson for Carleton, something really has to be different this year for them to be able to win. Otherwise Carleton still can and straight up will do the same thing they've done the past three (theoretically four) years again, and have already begun this year: they will train longer and smarter than other teams well into mid-season, not put mental stock and confidence into early season results like certain other teams historically, somehow convince the MIAC they are not the favorites, then show their hand at the exact right time. Do I think something different can happen? Yes. Will I be surprised if it doesn't happen? No. Dave Ricks is (somehow) currently the smartest coach in the MIAC, and if you only look at the fact that Mueller and Wilky are gone, you fail to see that their top five is still nothing short of stellar.
What Olaf really needs is a front runner. A steady, an All American caliber runner. Which they've sorely lacked for years. They sure boast a unique MIAC luxury of having some room for error, but they alone have repeatedly showcased that depth alone is not enough to win championships. Because with many guys under 26 but 0 guys under 25 and your front runner almost in triple digits at Nats the past few years, you can't do all that much. This year's crew may or may have the means to be different. I do think Bocovich, Ellefson-Carnes, Kelly, Curtis, or Kosche could all be "the guy" for them. All of them probably won't, but at least one of them will probably go under 25 - and sub 25 has always been the magic time for AA in D3. The question is who. Being a steady first man requires a certain level of swagger, and one of them will just have to adopt that "cockadence" to be the top dog and lead the team consistently (which Olaf has lacked for some time) for them to win MIAC and get back on the map nationally.
Gustavus, inversely, needs a much stronger 4-5 than usual to truly tussle with the Northfield teams. Stumbo and Garet Grant will all but certainly return to Nationals. But it depends on Olsen, Knutson, and / or DeGonda if they go individually, or crack the MIAC (and WIAC) and make it as a team. (Hinchcliffe will be a good #3.) Those three are good but in a conference this great and a new region as crazy tough as this one they really just need to be better to stand a chance. If the Gusties were truly tempoing Olaf Invite, they might already have gotten there. But it might've been that *thing* some teams do where they say they were tempoing but really they know they weren't. Tough to say at this point, but we'll find out soon enough... in any case they've got a stellar front runner(s). And Stumbo has historically taken a while in the season to rev up, so the fact that he outright won the Olaf Invite either means he's much better than he's ever been and can contend for a top 20 spot at Nats, or he somehow goofed big time and peaked super early. (Spoiler: it's the former.)
The real dark horse team is St. Scholastica. Admittedly I don't know very much about the Scholars. And they likely don't know a ton about the MIAC. That lack of overthinking probably will work out to their advantage. I wouldn't be surprised if they end up sneaking into the top 3 in some form. Boone and DeWall, I think, are without a doubt All-MIAC material.
As for St. Johns and Bethel... based on the first few results and team stats (and still factoring in Bethel's Mendel and St. John's Lloyd Young, who were absent last race), these two will continue to fight to be the top of the MIAC's B tier teams. They'll almost certainly be 5th and 6th. I don't mean to be disrespectful... Just seems like unless something is different that people can't see yet, that's just how it'll be for them again this year. But I will say. Lloyd Young has a real solid chance to qualify individually for nationals.
What it looks like at the moment: 1) Olaf 2) Gustavus 3) Carleton 4) St. John's 5) St. Scholastica 6) Bethel
How I currently guess it'll end up (God, be different in any capacity): 1) Carleton 2) Olaf 3) Gustavus 4) St. Scholastica 5) St. John's 6) Bethel
Longer post than I anticipated. Just think it's fun to stir the pot a bit. Tried to be as unbiased as I can. Take all my BS with a grain of salt. If you're a current athlete and you scoffed at something I wrote, I hope you prove me wrong! The MIAC has improved across the board dramatically the past four years and yet what matters, the results in the postseason, have somehow stayed the same. My only hope is for this season to be more interesting than this predictable trend we seem to have found the conference in the past few years...