Confirmed: Joshua Cheptegei WILL go for Komen's legendary 7:20.67 on Wednesday!!

Armstronglivs wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

Can you expand on this and give us all a demonstration of your understanding?

"As further confirmation, modern training suggests a 7:20-7:23-ish attempt at 3000m, about 1 month later, as a logical progression towards extending the established intensity, on the way to 5000m."(quote)

Did I read 7.20 there - not 7.33? Oh, right - it is only an "attempt". I guess I could make such an "attempt" as well. Then there were the tables, that you didnt dispute, that suggested 7.11 is possible.

Conclusions:

- When asked to expand on this, you cannot expand on this

- When asked to demonstrate your understanding, you cannot give us a demonstration of your understanding

- for you "at least 7.20" really means the fastest value in the range "7:20-7:23"

- you think equivalency tables suggest possibility

Hard for me to say what you read -- it is not always obvious that you even read the responses that you reply to.

Then it is hard for me to say what you understand from what you read, judging by the content of your responses.

But you should have understood that it is an attempt to run a 3000m at 102.3%-103% of 5000m target speed.

You could easily make such an attempt too, after one month training after completing your base training.

Regardless of success of attempt, running a time trial at 100% of 5000m target speed for 3000m is a good training, and the result provides valuable feedback to guide future training (one of Lydiard's principles).

Armstronglivs wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

No, being a fellow human being prevents him from him being able to run 12:35 without having sub-3:50 mile speed.

You haven't included possible doping in your calculations, which means he isn't constrained by the same factors that affect the rest of us mere mortals. I will await to see whether he can beat 3.32 for the 1500. Either way, he is slower than Komen at 3.29 and El G at 3.26, which makes him "slow twitch" over the 3k. His 7.33 currently suggests that as well. Without sub 3.30 speed he doesn't stand a chance of beating 7.20.

I didn't say he could run 7:20, but 7:25 is realistic. The general assumption on LR is that every Kenyan cheats so I don't know why you would make it sound as if he is the only one that does. There is no super-PED that would result in someone running 3.1 X 4:03 with 3:55ish mile speed.

I'm not interest in "expanding" on it, as you are the one who continues to cite "modern training" as the key to all Cheptegei's performances - whether they be a pedestrian 1500m or a big miss at a world record for 3k. Classic deflection. You are requiring me to explain your own terminology. However, you were a good 10 seconds out on your estimation of what we could expect from Cheptegei's record attempt. Understanding "modern training" doesn't appear to add insight into real world performance.

However, what can be safely concluded is that for you all his performances - regardless of their level - are consistent with "modern training" because they lead to one event, the Tokyo Olympics. Yet setting a goal of the Olympics is hardly "modern" - it has been so since Baron de Coubertin introduced the modern Olympics in 1896.

That you convert each of Cheptegei's races into a form of preparation for the Olympics suggests he has no prior or intermediate goals, such as to run a fast time or - dare I say - set a world record. You know for a fact that these races are effectively nothing more than a warm up for the Games. Yet you never say how you know what Cheptegei thinks and intends and what his goals are, or those of his coaches. There is a surprising lack of "facts and real world observations" behind your assertions.

In any case, your interpretation of each of his races as a form of interval training for the Tokyo Olympics is hardly "modern" - it is classic Stampfl from the 50's.

Your "modern training" has put all of Cheptegei's eggs into one basket, the Tokyo 5000m. If he loses there then so it seems does modern training. Quite a lot is riding on one race - and not just for Cheptegei. Your own credibility has been nailed to that particular mast.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

You haven't included possible doping in your calculations, which means he isn't constrained by the same factors that affect the rest of us mere mortals. I will await to see whether he can beat 3.32 for the 1500. Either way, he is slower than Komen at 3.29 and El G at 3.26, which makes him "slow twitch" over the 3k. His 7.33 currently suggests that as well. Without sub 3.30 speed he doesn't stand a chance of beating 7.20.

I didn't say he could run 7:20, but 7:25 is realistic. The general assumption on LR is that every Kenyan cheats so I don't know why you would make it sound as if he is the only one that does. There is no super-PED that would result in someone running 3.1 X 4:03 with 3:55ish mile speed.

He isn't Kenyan, he is Ugandan. I dont think 3.37 is his maximum. But I don't think he can run 3.30 or better. I also don't think there is a clean wr in running. Interpret that how you choose.

Cheptegei's 7:33 was after running the first 4 laps at 7:20 pace. If the target would be 7:28 he probably would have succeeded. In 12:35 5000m form sub 7:25 should be possible. 7:20 is difficult, Cheptegei is some endurence monster.

Both Cheptegei's 5000m and 10000m records are superior to Komen's 3000m mark. But I don't think Cheptegei will come really close, but some Ethiopian will break it by big margin in the next two years.

I'll accept that this is an accurate demonstration of what you understand.

It looks like you didn't understand the question.

I did not ask you to explain my terminology but yours: "the sky is the limit", and "at least 7.20".

Since he has the WR records at both distances wouldn't he double at 5/10K?

You don't understand "the sky's the limit"? If that is beyond you then everything else will be. But keep shifting the goal posts. It's all you've got. You have no response to my observations above, especially the point relating to how you can read Cheptegei's mind. Your "facts and real world observations" are pure fiction.

Armstronglivs wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

I'll accept that this is an accurate demonstration of what you understand.

It looks like you didn't understand the question.

I did not ask you to explain my terminology but yours: "the sky is the limit", and "at least 7.20".

You don't understand "the sky's the limit"? If that is beyond you then everything else will be. But keep shifting the goal posts. It's all you've got. You have no response to my observations above, especially the point relating to how you can read Cheptegei's mind. Your "facts and real world observations" are pure fiction.

Not in the context of your statement (see above). You said these phrases are uttered by "modern training". Can you elaborate how "modern training" says the sky is the limit. Or at least 7.20"?

You have no real observations above, at least that involve me -- how should I respond to more fiction? With more "I never said" ad nauseum? It hardly seems worth cataloging all the errors in your "observations above" anymore. I think everyone else has the point by now.

rekrunner wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

You don't understand "the sky's the limit"? If that is beyond you then everything else will be. But keep shifting the goal posts. It's all you've got. You have no response to my observations above, especially the point relating to how you can read Cheptegei's mind. Your "facts and real world observations" are pure fiction.

Not in the context of your statement (see above). You said these phrases are uttered by "modern training". Can you elaborate how "modern training" says the sky is the limit. Or at least 7.20"?

You have no real observations above, at least that involve me -- how should I respond to more fiction? With more "I never said" ad nauseum? It hardly seems worth cataloging all the errors in your "observations above" anymore. I think everyone else has the point by now.

So I'm required to answer your questions but you wont respond to mine. I think everyone has the point by now.

Armstronglivs wrote:

So I'm required to answer your questions but you wont respond to mine. I think everyone has the point by now.

I think so too.

You only raised these questions as a diversion in order to avoid answering mine.

My question is essentially always the same -- can you back up any of your ideas. This should go without asking.

In any case, I have answered all of your questions repeatedly. Many of them assume I have said things I did not say, or draws consequences I did not draw, nor necessarily agree with. You ask me to explain why I say things which I did not say. If I tell you I did not say these things, you say I repeat this is one of my "ad nauseum" responses. You can cure that by using my words, not yours. This also demonstrates why you cannot be trusted to relay information about anything in general, that is not backed up by credible sources.

You ask me things like how I know Cheptegei only has one goal -- I responded that he himself listed three goals for the 3000m race alone. I also responded what Cheptegei said his goal was for the 1500m. These were some of the "real world facts and observations" you falsely claimed was lacking. In addition to the big goals of an Olympic 5000m and 10000m double, I'm sure he has many intermediate goals along the way, like every athlete. He will succeed at some, and fail at some.

You reference my alleged "interpretation of each of his races as a form of interval training". I don't recognize that as my interpretation. The time trials we are discussing are not interval training, but continuous efforts. They are also not "classic Stampfl from the 50's".

I talked about how modern training guidelines act as an INPUT to determine what kind of training to do, at which pace for which duration, and you awkwardly try to measure the applicability of modern training by looking at the OUTPUT. My answer is that the OUTPUT matches the INPUT like a hand fits in a glove. Even if he fails massively at every on of 100 goals for 2021, modern training would constrain his 1500m time trials in April to +/- 5000m race pace, and modern training does not forbid an attempt at the 3000m record in mid-May, nor require succeeding at the attempt.

Is there a question I have failed to answer, that wasn't really a distortion introduced by you?

Meanwhile you still avoid providing basic external support for any of your fantastic notions.

Since you claim to know what were Cheptegei's goals in the 3k and the 1500 perhaps you could find the media reports of his comments that establish what those goals were.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Since you claim to know what were Cheptegei's goals in the 3k and the 1500 perhaps you could find the media reports of his comments that establish what those goals were.

1500m - in this post race interview, he tells the world, in his own words, that the 1500m was his first track race and was a speed test as part of his preparation for the Olympics and that he is happy as he ran his 5000m/10000m pace:

3000m -- in these pre-race interviews, Cheptegei, in his own words, lists no less than three goals for this race, with increasing difficulty:

rekrunner wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

Since you claim to know what were Cheptegei's goals in the 3k and the 1500 perhaps you could find the media reports of his comments that establish what those goals were.

1500m - in this post race interview, he tells the world, in his own words, that the 1500m was his first track race and was a speed test as part of his preparation for the Olympics and that he is happy as he ran his 5000m/10000m pace:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5wlsxo9LN0

3000m -- in these pre-race interviews, Cheptegei, in his own words, lists no less than three goals for this race, with increasing difficulty:

https://www.watchathletics.com/article/11410/cheptegi-eyes-3000m-world-record-at-ostrava-golden-spikehttps://www.worldathletics.org/competitions/world-athletics-continental-tour/news/cheptegei-duplantis-richardson-ostrava-golden

Cheotegei: "The first thing about the 3000m in Ostrava is to think about the meeting record and to run as fast as possible."

7.33 was apparently as fast as possible that night. For a 3k event - not 5k or 10k.

I couldn't make out much of what he said in his interview after the 1500, except for his observation "it wasn't easy". A 3.37 for a 12.35 runner "wasn't easy". He wasn't saying he was trying to run the 1500 at the pace of a longer event.

Either way - his present times are slow - very slow - for a world record-holder.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Cheotegei: "The first thing about the 3000m in Ostrava is to think about the meeting record and to run as fast as possible."

Cheptegei has run the first 4 laps in 7:20 pace, 7:33 was not his limit on this day. Anybody who follows athletics knows that.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Cheotegei: "The first thing about the 3000m in Ostrava is to think about the meeting record and to run as fast as possible."

7.33 was apparently as fast as possible that night. For a 3k event - not 5k or 10k.

I couldn't make out much of what he said in his interview after the 1500, except for his observation "it wasn't easy". A 3.37 for a 12.35 runner "wasn't easy". He wasn't saying he was trying to run the 1500 at the pace of a longer event.

Either way - his present times are slow - very slow - for a world record-holder.

Now will you stop asking me how I know Cheptegei's goals? We know what Cheptegei says personally from his mouth in these interviews.

You seem to place unusual emphasize on these early season off-event times being slow, as if that were somehow an important observation, helping you make a point. These slow times are +/- 5000m paces, which is perfect preparation for the upcoming Olympics.

You should ask for help listening to the 1500m post race interview, where he says this first track race was a speed test, in preparation for the Olympics (5000m/10000m), and that he is happy with the pace as he ran his 5000m/10000m pace. Of course his first track race of the season in April wasn't easy.

Yes, his 1500m in April, at altitude, in the first track race of the season, is slow, about as slow as much faster 1500m specialists like Centrowitz, Jakob, and Musagala.

And his 3000m, in mid-May, was as he said pre-race: "I'll run fast as long as my legs will carry me." Perhaps another unstated goal was to find out how long he could carry his 103% of 5000m speed, at this point in his training, with 10-11 weeks to go.

His times, in these shorter events, in the early season, are slow. This is completely expected in virtually every scenario, for a 5000m/10000m Olympian three months before the Olympics.

Yeah, 3:37 & 7:33 may well end up being his PRs. So he confirmed he is a few seconds faster than Joe Klecker.

5558 wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

Cheotegei: "The first thing about the 3000m in Ostrava is to think about the meeting record and to run as fast as possible."

Cheptegei has run the first 4 laps in 7:20 pace, 7:33 was not his limit on this day. Anybody who follows athletics knows that.

Then he failed in his objective to run it "as fast as possible".

He didn't say what you claim he did. No one does.

You know nothing about running if you think the "perfect preparation" for a longer event is to run a shorter event no faster than the pace of the longer event. Does an aspiring 3.50 miler prepare by running an 800 event in 1.55? Ridiculous. As a "speed test" it is a failure - that would need to be in the region of 1.45 - and if he can only run 1.55 for 800 and no further it is an endurance fail.

I did not hear Cheptegei say that he was trying to race the 1500 or 3k at 5k pace - which is a nonsense. If that was offered as a rationale it is merely an excuse for an unimpressive performance. This doesn't look like an athlete who is nearing his peak for a global championship. That will take something other than "modern training".