Stop lying to yourselves about ATHING MU, she has WR potential

^quality post, +1

800m WR is not the fastest over 400 unless powered by DOW chemical/test/HGH/etc

I think this is an incorrect and old school take. You are looking at the 800 as an inbetween event where someone has to be coming from a speed or endurance angle. The reality is that the top runners these days seem to be true 800 meter specialists that blend the two. Yes, maybe they index a bit one way or the other but I think the days of the Juantorea/Snell dichotomy are gone.

Look at someone like Brazier... he is probably pretty flat 400/1500. My guess is if you got Ajay Wilson in a few 1500s you would see the same.

Kratochvilova was a 48 sec 400m runner and former wr holder, I believe, but her 800m wr was a bit soft for her 400 ability. Is Athing Mu a future 48 second 400m runner? Low 49 I can definitely see happening. 1:53 wouldn't surprise me in the next several years. An incredible talent.

It's true that for men the 800m have mostly been a specialized event since the 1990s or maybe even in the 1980s Coe was an exception. But I think that the comparison with men or supposedly equivalent male times are not helpful.

The 800m women has been a messed up event and therefore hard to compare to anything. It seems that 1980s style testosterone doping was uncommonly effective (just look at the all time list) and more recently the DSD xy persons were extraordinarily strong in the event. These are indications that male-female comparisons (esp. with respective 400m or 1500m marks) are not helpful. And because women are slower it is more aerobic/strengh-based for them (thus you have the likes of Kipyegon, Tsegay, Reekie rising to the top last year, all coming "from above"). Still, Mu's negatively split 1:57.7 is extremely impressive and for me more relevant than relay splits or 4:16 1500m. The 800m are a very tight event, Wilson was such a clear favorite 2 years ago and "only" got bronze.

Amos ran 1:42 for many years and ran 1:41 AGAIN in 2019...

gernu and Wigins obviously have an agenda

I say just one year at time. This year, maybe 1:56, likely make the Olympic team, with a good chance at making the Olympic final. Outside possibility at a medal. The two aforementioned idiot/trolls would still downplay that, saying that a 1:55 silver medal is only worth a D1 power 5 conference podium for men. But they have an agenda and it you don't have to think that hard at what it is (Occam's razor). It's obvious.

aalboo wrote:

gernu and Wigins obviously have an agenda

I say just one year at time. This year, maybe 1:56, likely make the Olympic team, with a good chance at making the Olympic final. Outside possibility at a medal. The two aforementioned idiot/trolls would still downplay that, saying that a 1:55 silver medal is only worth a D1 power 5 conference podium for men. But they have an agenda and it you don't have to think that hard at what it is (Occam's razor). It's obvious.

Intelligence is not your strength. I share no agenda with Wigins, who I disagree with most of the time. IF you think it is a skin color issue you could not be further from the truth, and that is where intelligence comes in. Mu is a tremendous athlete, possibly the most talented woman 800m runner in U.S. history. However, Wigins is correct to point out that an improvement of almost 4 to 5 seconds at 800m does not come easily, and usually never, when an athlete has been training hard for the event for a few years. I also do not think Jakob Ingebrigtsen has any chance to break any of the standard world records, like the 1500m, and in your limited intelligence you would assign this to me not liking Norwegians. That has nothing to do with it.

jaboukomobile wrote:

Amos ran 1:42 for many years and ran 1:41 AGAIN in 2019...

But still hasn't beat his 18-year old time. He isn't a Rudisha.

Agree with much of that.

highhoppingworm wrote:

I think this is an incorrect and old school take. You are looking at the 800 as an inbetween event where someone has to be coming from a speed or endurance angle. The reality is that the top runners these days seem to be true 800 meter specialists that blend the two. Yes, maybe they index a bit one way or the other but I think the days of the Juantorea/Snell dichotomy are gone.

Look at someone like Brazier... he is probably pretty flat 400/1500. My guess is if you got Ajay Wilson in a few 1500s you would see the same.

It's not an 'either' 'or', that an 800m runner is either a long sprinter or an endurance athlete. The event requires a measure of both; the true sprinters however lack endurance and the endurance runner may lack speed. For the 800 a certain basic speed is required, but beyond that endurance is crucial. That is so even for the specialist at the distance. It may be more so for women, so that we see very few 400-800 types in the event today. Kratochvilova is an outlier in every sense.

I think Mu is an 800 specialist; I don't see her achieving equivalent times over the 400, but nor do I think she will be in contention over the 1500. That said, she is a very impressive runner over 2 laps.

think first wrote:

You wouldn't go nuts about an 18 year old american runner with 45 / 400m and 1:44 / 800?

You mean, 1 second off the under-18 world record? Nope.

3 seconds off Nijel Amos when he was 18? Double nope.

The fact that it's an American doesn't figure into it for me. Not a flag-waving olympics glory patriot.

Hard to impress. Remind me your PBs?

Bad Wigins wrote:

You mean, 1 second off the under-18 world record? Nope.

3 seconds off Nijel Amos when he was 18? Double nope.

The fact that it's an American doesn't figure into it for me. Not a flag-waving olympics glory patriot.

The actual fact is the 800m is the event closest to blending anaerobic and aerobic 50/50. As far as only one sprinter type 800m runner you spoke of Juanterro well what about Mark Evrertt, Harold Schmidt, Jose Parilla, Danny Eveett etc, Jose Luis Barbosa, Danny Koncellah, etc and the current young Kenyan who was cranking out 44 open and 1:43 a couple years ago.

African Americans do not mature before whites lol. If anything, after. Webb was balding in HS.

think first wrote:

Hard to impress. Remind me your PBs?

Bad Wigins wrote:

You mean, 1 second off the under-18 world record? Nope.

3 seconds off Nijel Amos when he was 18? Double nope.

The fact that it's an American doesn't figure into it for me. Not a flag-waving olympics glory patriot.

I’d bet money Wigins is a 5 min miler.

prezzy wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

1.44.02 to 1.40.91? No chance. And that's a smaller differential than between Mu's time and the women's world record. Mu is African-American so she is likely to be more mature physically than a Caucasian - by about 2 years. Amos ran 1.41xx at 18 - and got no faster. Improvement is not a given.

I don't think its appreciated here how tough these records are, and even getting within a second of them is a huge ask, let alone beating them. I think she may have a 1.55 in her at her best. It would probably be a clean world's best. If she's clean.

African Americans do not mature before whites lol. If anything, after. Webb was balding in HS.

Actually they do on average but I would not consider this relevant at all in Mu’s case.

prezzy wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

1.44.02 to 1.40.91? No chance. And that's a smaller differential than between Mu's time and the women's world record. Mu is African-American so she is likely to be more mature physically than a Caucasian - by about 2 years. Amos ran 1.41xx at 18 - and got no faster. Improvement is not a given.

I don't think its appreciated here how tough these records are, and even getting within a second of them is a huge ask, let alone beating them. I think she may have a 1.55 in her at her best. It would probably be a clean world's best. If she's clean.

African Americans do not mature before whites lol. If anything, after. Webb was balding in HS.

It will come as news to you, but hair loss isn't a sign of physical maturity.

VIPAM wrote:

The actual fact is the 800m is the event closest to blending anaerobic and aerobic 50/50. As far as only one sprinter type 800m runner you spoke of Juanterro well what about Mark Evrertt, Harold Schmidt, Jose Parilla, Danny Eveett etc, Jose Luis Barbosa, Danny Koncellah, etc and the current young Kenyan who was cranking out 44 open and 1:43 a couple years ago.

Those runners may have been competitive over the shorter distance but Juantorena is the only runner I am aware of who was a championship/Olympic gold medalist over both.

But I take the general point, that some 800 runners are also fast over the shorter distance. The converse also applies - as we see with 800/1500 runners. However, to be successful over the 800 requires a combination of speed and endurance. Few have a high degree of both.

I think Wavelight will be a huge advantage in any effectively solo run—especially below 1:55.

Unfairly huge, actually.