I speak of only facts wrote:
About 60 million today have had at least one of the vac shots.
About 30 million have tested positive.
We're vaccinating about 2 million daily.
About 60K daily test positive.
Math tells me that by April 1 we've done enough. If you're at risk on that date, where a mask until fall.
By April 1st about 30 million people will have tested positive for COVID. Most estimates put the true number who have had it at 2-3X. If we use 2.5X then that puts roughly 75 million with some level of natural immunity (22.7%).
At the current vaccination rate, approximately 108 million will be either fully or partially vaccinated by April 1.
If the 22.7% of those who already had it are evenly represented in the group that has received the vaccine that puts the number of people who have some level of immunity at over 158 million. Roughly 48% of the US population.
* ~20% of the US population is too young to be eligible for the vaccine.
In addition, a much higher percentage of those at the highest risk for dying or severe illness will have immunity due to the vaccine being rolled out to them first.
The 70-80% herd immunity level does not have to be reached in order for there to be a significant impact on the spread and severeity of COVID.
The impact of the variants are the variables that can impact these numbers the most.