birdbeard wrote:
Mead may double, too (although it sounds like Cheptegei's initial plan at least is to double as well).
Mead?
birdbeard wrote:
Kiplimo & Cheptegei would probably be 1-2 favorites in the 5000 if they run it, Kejelcha close behind.
You gotta include Barega in that short list, too, and probably Jakob Ingebrigtsen (not to mention two of the medalists from Doha, including Ahmed).
John Wesley Harding wrote:
birdbeard wrote:
Mead may double, too (although it sounds like Cheptegei's initial plan at least is to double as well).
Mead?
birdbeard wrote:
Kiplimo & Cheptegei would probably be 1-2 favorites in the 5000 if they run it, Kejelcha close behind.
You gotta include Barega in that short list, too, and probably Jakob Ingebrigtsen (not to mention two of the medalists from Doha, including Ahmed).
Yup. Ahmed still underrated. The fact that he was less than 2 seconds off of Barega in Doha despite pushing the pace and leading from the front for the last 1200m and getting clipped three times by Ingerbritsen speaks volumes about his ability. If he has continued to improve in 2020 then he's definitely in the hunt in the 5000m, and I'm very curious to see how he goes in the 10000m as well.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
birdbeard wrote:
Mead may double, too (although it sounds like Cheptegei's initial plan at least is to double as well).
Mead?
birdbeard wrote:
Kiplimo & Cheptegei would probably be 1-2 favorites in the 5000 if they run it, Kejelcha close behind.
You gotta include Barega in that short list, too, and probably Jakob Ingebrigtsen (not to mention two of the medalists from Doha, including Ahmed).
Mo Ahmed -.-
Just in the middle of work and not thinking. For some reason sometimes I mix up Hasan Mead and Ahmed in my mind. Yes, I do include Barega for sure. Especially after that 7:26. We haven't seen him put together a really good race on the world stage yet, though.
Kiplimo & Cheptegei seem on a slightly different level to me for some reason. But I could be off-base. I would think the one thing that Barega would have over Cheptegei is speed, but the 2019 Prefontaine 2 Mile sticks out to me as how the last lap might go in a 5000 between Joshua and Selemon.
As for Jakob -- I have no doubt he can run well under 13:00, but until he proves it I still see him as a 1500/3000 guy that is just a bit shy of true contention in the 5000.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
high school xc coach wrote:
I don't know if they will go that fast. If there are two or three very good time trialers in the race, they may have the fear that they will blow up and miss out. Hopefully they go in with the Ricky Bobby mentality. If you ain't first, you're last! Just go for it.
Between Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Kipruto and Kandie I feel confident they’ll be running sub-27 pace practically from the gun. It will be like a time trial for Mo, but not quite so for these guys, and they’ll drop Mo like a bad habit when they accelerate in the latter stages. I won’t be surprised if Mo DNF’s due to the masive blow to his ego.
Going 26:11 where you get pacing to 6.5k is different than going 26:20 wire-to-wire in humid tokyo conditions
unless they have a sacrificial lambs to take the first4-6k they have no chance of dropping farah and he's shown he is still in 26:30-26:50 shape with the world one hour record last year.
Farah will win
Just come to terms with this fact
Belihu is most certainly not dead.
That's Abadi Hadis, RIP.
-----------------
Good discussion between you two. I generally agree - the field is tremendously deep and he isn't better enough than the rest of the field, at least head and shoulders.
Farah was probably a 12:45/26:30 guy, AND he had a world-class monster turn of pace.
Bekele WAS the guy PR wise AND had the turn of pace to take them all.
Cheptegei is phenomenal, but I don't know if he can run away from EVERYONE ever in what i call "the potential greatest race of all time"
in sticky hot humid Tokyo, he's got all these guys like yall say
Kiplimo
Ahmed
Kejelcha
Gebrhiwet
Belihu
Kandie
Kamworor
Kipruto
KEN subs (Kwemoi, Kimeli, Tanui, Karoki)
ETH subs (Barega, Mekennon, Edris even)
holyfield wrote: farah [has] shown he is still in 26:30-26:50 shape with the world one hour record last year.
We all know that’s bogus.
He beat a guy with a 27:36 PB by only 8 meters. 8 meters!
It’s about 59:20 1/2 Marathon pace for effectively the same distance. I wonder if any of the sub-58’ guys in Valencia bettered that hour performance merely by milling about post-race, getting their sweats on. Kandie would only have had to average 17:06 mile pace for another 2:28/232m.
jabouko wrote:
Belihu is most certainly not dead.
That's Abadi Hadis, RIP.
-----------------
Good discussion between you two. I generally agree - the field is tremendously deep and he isn't better enough than the rest of the field, at least head and shoulders.
Farah was probably a 12:45/26:30 guy, AND he had a world-class monster turn of pace.
Bekele WAS the guy PR wise AND had the turn of pace to take them all.
Cheptegei is phenomenal, but I don't know if he can run away from EVERYONE ever in what i call "the potential greatest race of all time"
in sticky hot humid Tokyo, he's got all these guys like yall say
Kiplimo
Ahmed
Kejelcha
Gebrhiwet
Belihu
Kandie
Kamworor
Kipruto
KEN subs (Kwemoi, Kimeli, Tanui, Karoki)
ETH subs (Barega, Mekennon, Edris even)
I agree that Cheptegei cannot run away from all of them, but luckily for him, there are at least 2-3 dudes (Kipruto, Kandie, Kamworwor, Kwemoi) that actually don’t have Joshua’s speed and would need him to have a bad day and drop him. That’s great why Rhonex led half the Doha race. If they all decide to sit on Joshua, one of two things will happen:
1. Joshua will run something like 26:35-45 and see how they all respond. He could win in this scenario still, but I see him getting nipped by someone like Kiplimo or Gebhriwet if he can hang; or
2. Cheptegei runs more in the 27:00-27:10 range and pushes from 1600 out. In this scenario I think he wins, but Farah has a shot.
holyfield wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Between Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Kipruto and Kandie I feel confident they’ll be running sub-27 pace practically from the gun. It will be like a time trial for Mo, but not quite so for these guys, and they’ll drop Mo like a bad habit when they accelerate in the latter stages. I won’t be surprised if Mo DNF’s due to the masive blow to his ego.
Going 26:11 where you get pacing to 6.5k is different than going 26:20 wire-to-wire in humid tokyo conditions
unless they have a sacrificial lambs to take the first4-6k they have no chance of dropping farah and he's shown he is still in 26:30-26:50 shape with the world one hour record last year.
Farah will win
Just come to terms with this fact
This is dumb. They will drop Farah just like they dropped Gebhriwet and Lomong in 2019. He is nowhere near 26:30 shape and nothing he has done would indicate that.
Good point. Reminding me of kamworor vs farah in 2015.
I think Farah has a shot no matter what unless they blitz it out from the gun. Marathon training could actually help him somewhat if somebody like Gebriwhet tries to push the pace at 8k or so. Cheptegei is obviously the favorite but by no means a lock. I honestly could see any of the Ethiopians winning. Whoever doesn’t make their 5k team goes to the 10k and at least 1 will get a medal (like Kejelcha in 2019)
birdbeard wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Between Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Kipruto and Kandie I feel confident they’ll be running sub-27 pace practically from the gun. It will be like a time trial for Mo, but not quite so for these guys, and they’ll drop Mo like a bad habit when they accelerate in the latter stages. I won’t be surprised if Mo DNF’s due to the masive blow to his ego.
I agree with this. Cheptegei ran 55-56 for his last lap at 26:48 pace. Mo has never closed that fast in a sub-27 race and probably cannot. I can't see anybody beating Cheptegei unless he's lost a step since 2019/20.
I actually can see people beating Cheptegei. There won't be little lights around the track to guide his pace. Kiplimo and Kandie. What about Kejelcha or Gebrhiwet? Berega? Cheptegei was 20 seconds slower in Monaco this year, more testing? I remember the 2004 Olympic 5000m final, earlier in the year Bekele ran 12:37 but El Guerrouj won.
Mo Farah probably wishes he stuck with the marathon. The weak Rio 10k field will not be replicated here. The big boys have come out to play. I just don't see Mo having that 328 1500m (lol PEDs much) speed anymore that wins him these races. The competition may have that, though. I am looking at betting on Cheptegei to win, maybe 100k if he's looking good and a site will accept that bet.
As people have said in this thread, Farah will always have a chance if he is in somewhat of a decent shape and can still close fast. The weather likely is going to be very difficult to maintain a fast pace. I remember everyone struggling (including Bekele) in Osaka 2007. Farah just needs to get some heat tolerance and sit n kick like he always did.
Mo doesn't even have the qualifying time yet does he?
birdbeard wrote:
jabouko wrote:
Belihu is most certainly not dead.
That's Abadi Hadis, RIP.
-----------------
Good discussion between you two. I generally agree - the field is tremendously deep and he isn't better enough than the rest of the field, at least head and shoulders.
Farah was probably a 12:45/26:30 guy, AND he had a world-class monster turn of pace.
Bekele WAS the guy PR wise AND had the turn of pace to take them all.
Cheptegei is phenomenal, but I don't know if he can run away from EVERYONE ever in what i call "the potential greatest race of all time"
in sticky hot humid Tokyo, he's got all these guys like yall say
Kiplimo
Ahmed
Kejelcha
Gebrhiwet
Belihu
Kandie
Kamworor
Kipruto
KEN subs (Kwemoi, Kimeli, Tanui, Karoki)
ETH subs (Barega, Mekennon, Edris even)
I agree that Cheptegei cannot run away from all of them, but luckily for him, there are at least 2-3 dudes (Kipruto, Kandie, Kamworwor, Kwemoi) that actually don’t have Joshua’s speed and would need him to have a bad day and drop him. That’s great why Rhonex led half the Doha race. If they all decide to sit on Joshua, one of two things will happen:
1. Joshua will run something like 26:35-45 and see how they all respond. He could win in this scenario still, but I see him getting nipped by someone like Kiplimo or Gebhriwet if he can hang; or
2. Cheptegei runs more in the 27:00-27:10 range and pushes from 1600 out. In this scenario I think he wins, but Farah has a shot.
What do you think the optimal strategy is for each group — assuming hot sticky conditions of 70+ and 70% humidity?
I’d say the Kenyans are prolly gonna be a half marathon heavy group like you said... so they’ll push hard and surge somewhat in the heat at 6000 meters, switching every 800 between (let’s guess) Kipruto, Kwemoi, Kamworor.
That will reveal who is in shape and who has actually prepped for course conditions - I expect a favorite to get dropped at 7500 meters.
The Ethiopians can hang on a fast pace but really excel at turning the screws with 16 or even 8 to go.
Still unsure of lineup but say it’s Kejelcha G-Wet, and Belihu would be left on his own with 1200 to go probably.
So then what... if you’re Chep, you prolly wanna get moving with 5 or 6 laps to go; you can use your strength to leave the others behind, and then surge again to drop the remainder coming towards the bell. But then you have a problem that wasn’t present in Doha. A guy younger than you, faster over 3k and the half, and with a nasty kick to boot. And he’s coming for your throne before you’ve even secured the crown in Tokyo. If you’re Chep, do you put in all this work only for Kiplimo to sprint by with 150 to go?
Will they work together? Do they NEED to work together?
Guessing here, but the top three countries in the 10000 will be Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia. I'm gonna guess here what their team will look like(Or who I would pick if I was in charge of their selection):
Uganda:
Joshua Cheptegei: world champ in XC(on a actual xc course), world record holder in 5000, 10000 and road 15k(on a course with non-stop rolling hills). Mo Farah has never proven himself to have the type of strength Cheptegei has. Mo Farah lost to Garrett Heath in Edinburgh XC and also almost lost to him in a 2 mile race on the the track. So as long as Cheptegei takes this race by the balls and make it all about pure strength, he will win.
Jacob Kiplimo: 7:26 3000, 12:48 5000, and 57:37 half marathon(2nd fastest of all time). I don't know what else to write about him except he has proven himself to have the strength and kick necessary to beat Mo.
Now who will have the third spot on the Ugandan team will be a little tougher, though whoever they pick should just be a sacrificial lamb for Joshua and Jacob.
Kenya:
Rhonex Kipruto: 26:50 10000 PB, world record road 10k and was one of the 4 to run under 58 minutes in the half marathon. Still a young and developing athlete, I believe he has great potential to rival Cheptegei and Kiplimo in the coming years.
Kibiwott Kandie: world record holder in the half marathon. Not much else to write about. He hasn't proven himself to be as good on the track as he is on the roads. But he is still a factor given the engine required to run a half marathon.
I'm giving the third spot on the Kenyan team to Richard Yator, a young and up coming athlete. But still has a sub 13 5000. Something the other two don't have yet. Went 27:01 in Japan last year.
Ethiopia:
Muktar Edris: with his 59:04 half marathon debut last year I believe he'll move up to the 10000 for these Olympics. Also he has already beat Mo at his own game in a slow tactical 5000.
Salemon Barega: got second at the last world championships in the 5000 and won his national championship in the 10000 in 2019.
Hagos Gebrhiwet: been a strong contender in the 3000/5000 for years now. And if he decides to do double, as he should. He has proven himself to match Mo wheels in a kick finish.
If I were to guess today what it will look like. It is Jacob and Joshua of Uganda for 1 & 2. Pretty much a coin flip of which of the 2 will get the gold. And third is up to grabs with No getting somewhere between 4-6 place.
with increasing age, even a sir mo, despite being in good shape, will have to make the terrible experience that in 10k competitions the worst scenario for him looks like this: at the beginning very high pace for a few km - a little slower middle phase, but still fast - very hard and long finish.
I don’t think Farah will win because he’s 38. I have no doubts that 2012 Mo would’ve spanked Kiplimo.
never amazed wrote:
I don’t think Farah will win because he’s 38. I have no doubts that 2012 Mo would’ve spanked Kiplimo.
I mean Cheptegei
Cheptegei is a the defending World Champion over 10,000m and I'm pretty sure that's not a time trial. He is also the defending World Champion in Cross Country and that for damn sure is not a time trial. Mo is concerned.
I agree that Kiplimo is the big puzzle for Cheptegei, but I also think Cheptegei can run faster than 7:26 in the 3000. I think he can close better than Kiplimo. We’ll have to see.