Les wrote:
Pretty cold to declare Murphy done after one race. That said, Rojo's comment about Murphy's consistency is true. But that's the problem. Murphy consistently runs sub-1:44 but he hasn't improved. First Brazier surpassed him, now it looks like Hoppel has. When you're an older runner and start losing to younger runners you're in trouble. Murphy looks like the third best American 800 runner now, but by the Trials I can easily some young stud college runner emerging and beating him.
I can’t stand seeing people write off Murphy, because it always sounds like people are claiming he’s not the same person who ran in Rio. I don’t know all the ongoings, but I do know this; when Murphy chooses to focus on the 1500, his 800 declines, but once he’s in a championship, he’s as sharp as ever. Look at 2018 and 2019 USAs, plus his rounds throughout Doha. In the 2019 trials he ran a poor race and still managed to close nearly as fast as Brazier( 50.6 vs 50.9 I think). With the exception of the Doha final, Murphy’s been pretty consistent and reliable in finals.
As far as the race for third at this year’s trials, I think we may end up with something similar to the 1984 trials. In that race not only did it take an American record to win, but James Robinson and John Marshall both ran 1:43.9 in what ended up being a fight for 3rd. I don’t know if the finals will end up like that, but I’m sure the caliber of athletes will be equal or better. With Devin Dixon and Isaiah Harris both improving and moving towards 1:43, I could see a scenario happening where 1:43 only gets you 5th.