Short background, 26Y started running 3 years ago and about a year after that I started running seriously. About a year ago I ran a 2:48 marathon with 1:21-1:27 splits. My training in preparation for the marathon was about 3 months of 60 miles per week with a couple tempo-based workouts each week. I also did quite a bit of cycling, swimming and rowing as I was also doing triathlons.
This spring I was building up to attempt to go under 2:40 but got rhabdo after a tough week of training and spent a week in the hospital. After that I wasn't allowed to train for 2-3 months and I gained 20lb and lost motivation. Now I finally got back my motivation and have started to train more. Currently I'm running around 25 miles per week, all easy, mostly trying to lose some weight. Everything faster than 7:15 pace feels tough at the moment which perhaps isn't so strange considering I have at least 20 extra lb on me, but 7:30-45 feels easy.
So my question is how fast do you think I can get back into decent shape? Will losing the weight be enough for me to get to at least sub 40 shape?