I've been informed that the link to the article has been nuked.
WOW they got rid of that fast... anything that doesn't fit the narrative!
I've been informed that the link to the article has been nuked.
WOW they got rid of that fast... anything that doesn't fit the narrative!
The Unkle wrote:
You are in denial.
Median age at death due to covid is 80 plus.
Of course you would see a spike in older deaths from Covid.
But we don't.
This is a middle school math problem dude.
75% of 200,000 is 150,000
150,000+20,000 is 170,000
200,000+20,000 is 220,000
170,000/220,000 is 77.2727%
77.27-75 = 2.27.. and this is a MAX variance... assuming all the dead (100%) are in the 65+ age groups (also I included the 65-74 because even if a median age is 80 is that includes a lot of 65-74ish year olds
That's it. Nobody who understands how fractions/percents/ratios work expected those ratios to change much.
There definitely IS a spike in deaths of older people, and if you really want you can look up that data, but those numbers are not going to materially change the ratios.
suree wrote:
I've been informed that the link to the article has been nuked.
WOW they got rid of that fast... anything that doesn't fit the narrative!
Or because it was pure junk analysis that provided no insight to anything and somebody told their team to run data by somebody competent before publishing so they don't make themselves look stupid.
Harambe wrote:
Ahead of the Curve wrote:
It's not really addressed in the article other than referencing it at the beginning, nothing from that point forward mentions or explains it. That's the point, great you did some analysis, but ignored the biggest issue.
Just, there are 200k extra deaths, but they don't affect the age distribution and then 'look at these three weeks!' some death numbers from covid coincide with other death decreases!
Also a complete misunderstanding of COVID mortality compared with general mortality. Their “bombshell” data makes perfect sense in light of what we know about COVID risk.
The assumptions it operates from are completely wrong.
I am sure your death was labeled a COVID death.
And just for fun... only like 80% of the COVID deaths were 65+ so barely more than historical distribution and definitely not enough to make a noticeable impact on the charts.
So if a person with a chronic condition like heart disease dies after getting covid, wouldn’t you have to say they died due to Covid because if they didn’t get Covid they would still be alive?
sleepytime wrote:
So if a person with a chronic condition like heart disease dies after getting covid, wouldn’t you have to say they died due to Covid because if they didn’t get Covid they would still be alive?
I'm assuming a medical examiner would make that decision. I've never been to medical school and I'm not foolish enough to think I know more about determining cause of death than actual medical doctors.
So if a person who has terminal cancer is a wreckless driver and dies in a car accident, wouldn’t you have to say they died of cancer because if they didn’t get into a car accident first they would still be alive?
An interesting perspective for sure, prompted me to look into other views.
From 2013 to 2019 not only have the number of deaths increased (as you would expect with a growing population), the death rate has increased from 8.2% to 8.6%. I assume this may be due to the fact that boomers are aging and beginning to die off more but can't really speculate more than that on raw numbers.
The average rate of increase in this span is 0.9% per year. Low of -0.04% (the only decrease from 2018 to 2019) to a high of 2.5% from 2014 to 2015. An increase of around 0.4% occurred 4 of the 7 times so I'll use it as a median.
With our population now at 331million and using the median and average rates of increased mortality (0.4% and 0.9%) we should reasonably expect between 2.88 and 2.89 million deaths for 2020. As of week 46 we are at 2.75 million. To reach the max increase in mortality seen between '14 and '15 we will need 2.94 million deaths in 2020.
The last (and first) weeks of the year tend to be the highest % of deaths, but I'll use weeks 10-20 of 2020 for worst case scenario and say 2.75% of our deaths will occur over the last 6 weeks. Reverse engineering the math that means 83.5% of deaths have occurred already and in this scenario we wind up with 3.3 million deaths.
The actual average of 2% of deaths occurring in the final 6 weeks extrapolates to 3.13 million deaths. That would be a 9.3% death rate, an 8% increase over 2019 and to me seems like the most reasonable figure I've come to yet. Unless a bunch of people don't die in the next few weeks. That would also be roughly 240k more deaths than expected. I'd love to get some absolutely verifiable NOT covid death numbers to see if there's any chance things like suicide, murder, drowing, vehicular, etc are helping drive that increase. Certainly Covid is a big factor but I'd be surprised if all 240k can be due to it.
The Unkle wrote:
Harambe wrote:
[quote]Ahead of the Curve wrote:
[quote]Mondo Hondo wrote:
The assumptions it operates from are completely wrong.
Where are the assumptions in the following statement?
Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same.
No. See my post on the second page.
COVID mortality rises in line with general mortality with age.
COVID cases are generally evenly distributed across the age pyramid in the long run.
Therefore you expect the age distributions to remain the same for deaths — more old people die of COVID but more old people die of other things anyway...
The entire premise of the article is completely wrong. They have a result that is totally explained by COVID mortality rates.
Again, see here: COVID mortality tracks closely in proportion to general mortality — you wouldn’t expect COVID to skew the death distributions.
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259I cannot stress how dumb this “bombshell” is. The central point is a completely non-notable.
unregisteredguy wrote:
Harambe wrote:
Also a complete misunderstanding of COVID mortality compared with general mortality. Their “bombshell” data makes perfect sense in light of what we know about COVID risk.
The assumptions it operates from are completely wrong.
I am sure your death was labeled a COVID death.
Forcing a COVID-denier to grapple with more than 4 factor arithmetic always results in subject change and personal attack.
They’re hopeless...
Poster #411 wrote:
An interesting perspective for sure, prompted me to look into other views.
From 2013 to 2019 not only have the number of deaths increased (as you would expect with a growing population), the death rate has increased from 8.2% to 8.6%. I assume this may be due to the fact that boomers are aging and beginning to die off more but can't really speculate more than that on raw numbers.
The average rate of increase in this span is 0.9% per year. Low of -0.04% (the only decrease from 2018 to 2019) to a high of 2.5% from 2014 to 2015. An increase of around 0.4% occurred 4 of the 7 times so I'll use it as a median.
With our population now at 331million and using the median and average rates of increased mortality (0.4% and 0.9%) we should reasonably expect between 2.88 and 2.89 million deaths for 2020. As of week 46 we are at 2.75 million. To reach the max increase in mortality seen between '14 and '15 we will need 2.94 million deaths in 2020.
The last (and first) weeks of the year tend to be the highest % of deaths, but I'll use weeks 10-20 of 2020 for worst case scenario and say 2.75% of our deaths will occur over the last 6 weeks. Reverse engineering the math that means 83.5% of deaths have occurred already and in this scenario we wind up with 3.3 million deaths.
The actual average of 2% of deaths occurring in the final 6 weeks extrapolates to 3.13 million deaths. That would be a 9.3% death rate, an 8% increase over 2019 and to me seems like the most reasonable figure I've come to yet. Unless a bunch of people don't die in the next few weeks. That would also be roughly 240k more deaths than expected. I'd love to get some absolutely verifiable NOT covid death numbers to see if there's any chance things like suicide, murder, drowing, vehicular, etc are helping drive that increase. Certainly Covid is a big factor but I'd be surprised if all 240k can be due to it.
This is basically the CDC’s excess death calculation. (Well, not quite as sophisticated). These numbers have been around for months the deniers just refuse to believe them. The party line is now “all state and federal public health workers are faking data in a big conspiracy.”
Barbara Curtis wrote:
According to the CDC (the source of this data), "An estimated 299,028 excess deaths have occurred in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with two thirds of these attributed to COVID-19."
Who are we to believe? The CDC, or this program director who used CDC data to disagree with CDC conclusions?
Its Johns Hopkins. Don't be a denier.
Ahead of the Curve wrote:
https://www.vice.com/en/article/kb7eew/the-louder-the-monkey-the-smaller-its-balls-study-finds-42361364663309?
This one's for you Harambe.
Hey, if it ain't Covid, I wish someone would come down here to El Paso and tell us what's killing everybody here. Lived here all my life (59 years) and I've never seen them bring in trucks to store the dead bodies. Never seen the hospitals setting up tents so that they could handle all the people that are sick and die of something.
seek ye the truth wrote:
Ahead of the Curve wrote:
https://www.vice.com/en/article/kb7eew/the-louder-the-monkey-the-smaller-its-balls-study-finds-42361364663309?
This one's for you Harambe.
Harambe was Hunter Biden level hung, haven’t you seen the photos? RIP
jsal61 wrote:
Hey, if it ain't Covid, I wish someone would come down here to El Paso and tell us what's killing everybody here. Lived here all my life (59 years) and I've never seen them bring in trucks to store the dead bodies. Never seen the hospitals setting up tents so that they could handle all the people that are sick and die of something.
Right! I heard they've run out of trucks, ice, and tents. I would leave, because that is definitely worse than Covid. Be careful!
Allen53 wrote:
https://twitter.com/YardleyShooting/status/1331917586221719552
What was it Atticus Finch said?
https://www.outsideonline.com/1915506/why-do-gorillas-have-such-small-genitalsHarambe wrote:
seek ye the truth wrote:
This one's for you Harambe.
Harambe was Hunter Biden level hung, haven’t you seen the photos? RIP