rojo wrote:
Are you joking with this post? Rupp is waering the CHEATER's shoes.
John Kellogg is standing right next to me. I asked him, "What is worth more in terms of time? The shoes or the 2011 Boston wind?"
John, "The shoes."
Since Rojo is in a bad mood today and ripping on me for running workouts in shoes that I own but don't quite like enough for racing in, I'm going to call out Rojo/JK for this unbelievably wrong statement, one which shows that you have no basic understanding of math.
Let's follow the logic. The effect of wind on running is quite well understood. Boston 2011 had approximately a 20 mph tailwind. Now, we know that wind speed follows a roughly logarithmic profile vs height. So, that 20 mph, which was measured at 10 m, would correspond to, on average, 10 mph at ~1 m of height, where it would have an effect on the athlete. Let's be conservative and say that, on average, half of this wind was eaten up by surrounding competitors in the pack. That leaves the average runner in the pack with a 5 mph of net tailwind. This would be worth just over 10 seconds per mile per Daniels, and this effect is not dependent on the distance being run (unlike other factors like altitude, which you and JK have a history of misunderstanding and misinterpreting to hilarious and obviously ridiculous effect).
10 seconds per mile in a marathon would be worth 4:22 in a marathon or 2:11 in a half marathon. That would put Mutai's time at 2:07:24. This would have won all other years of the Boston Marathon until that point except 2010, so I don't think the 4:22 is a terrible estimate.
Now, let's compare to the modern age of Vaporflys / Alphaflys. You and JK just claimed that "CHEATER SHOES" have a bigger impact than a Boston 2011 tailwind. This would mean at least 4:23 in a marathon and at least 2:12 in a half marathon. Prior to "CHEATER SHOES", the world records in the marathon and half marathon were 2:02:57 and 58:23, respectively. Therefore, by your and JK's logic, these performances are worth no slower than 1:58:34 and 56:11 in "CHEATER SHOES". However, the current records are only 2:01:39 and 58:01. Therefore, you and JK are concluding that Dennis Kimetto, Wilson Kipsang, Patrick Makau, Haile Gebrselassie, Paul Tergat, and Khalid Khanouchi are vastly superior to Eliud Kipchoge in the marathon, since all their times would be superior to his current "CHEATER SHOES" record. By your logic, Ronaldo de Costa's 2:06:05 1998 world record (so long ago that I wonder if you even remember who he is) would be very close to Kipchoge's current world record. Moving to the half, your logic leads to the conclusion that Leonard Komon's DEBUT half of 59:14 would be worth 59 seconds better than the current "CHEATER SHOES" world record. Hmm. Based on your logic that "CHEATER SHOES" have more effect than a 2011 Boston tailwind, we would anticipate a 56:11 current world record if athletes weren't progressing since 2010. However, given that they are progressing in other road distances like 10k and marathon without "CHEATER SHOES", 55:xx would be a safe bet. Oddly, any method of best fit for the half marathon progression from 1960 to 2010 would anticipate a sub-58 min record right now. However, even with "CHEATER SHOES", the rate of progression has actually slowed, and we're stuck at 58:01.
Man, it's a real shame that all of the current athletes suck so much. By the Rojo/JK logic, everyone before CHEATER SHOES was SO MUCH BETTER than everyone right now.
Rojo, a bit of advice: quantification isn't your strong suit, and JK isn't an expert you make him out to be. Making ludicrous claims like makes the website seem less legitimate, and it makes me embarrassed to admit that I actually read these forums. You do a good job of reporting news, so how about you stick to that.