Here's the deal. I ran a time trial 5K in March of 18:48.
Since the beginning of March (or about a month before that time trial), I have averaged 55 miles or so per week. Done base work, hill work, speed work and then a marathon build.
The only blip--two weeks stuck in a quarantine hotel room.
The other blip-I ate too much for a while (long story) and despite great training am about 8 lbs. above what I consider race weight.
I have been training to do a 3:05 marathon. But that 5k predicts me at about 3:05 and it happened before my big training block of late March til now.
I just did a goal pace workout and for 12 miles did 7:02 without too much worry or strain. My Garmin is now predicting me at 2:49!!
So...should I go out conservatively trying to negative split and go for 3:05? Should I start faster?
My thought: go conservative and then if I feel really great around 15 miles I can push a bit more then really push at 18...then 20. As I was originally planning I would have to push at the end anyway.
Thoughts? I am lucky to be able to run a real race (here in Vietnam...assuming things don't change) and I am pretty excited. Oh yeah...I'm a 52 year old guy.