USA men’s 5k- hardest team to make for Tokyo?

1500m is the hardest team to make imo

NJ fan wrote:

Exactly. People like to forget just how good Rupp was/is. He was a BEAST in both the 5k and 10k.

If he did cheesy time trials like the Lomong/Kincaid race, he was fit enough to run sub 12:50 and likely 26:30 in his peak.

In his current 5k and 10k personal bests, he had to deal with a lot of traffic, making moves, passing people, the pace slowed towards the end when he was feeling fine before kicking. He ran much of his 5k PR in lane 2/3. He finished them both with MASSIVE kicks. If you can close a 12:58 race in a 1:57, you are fit enough to run around 12:50 in a time trial setting.

Galen Rupp’s 5000m prime was between 2010-2015 in that span he had plenty of opportunities to run 13 flat or better

2010:

9th place 13:10 at Gateshead in a race where 5 guys ran 13:02 or better

DNF at Stockholm with a 1000m left in the race where Solinsky ran 12:55 (6 guys ran 12:58 or faster)

12th place in 13:07 at Zurich again in a race Chris Solinsky ran 12:56 (6 guys also ran 12:58 or faster)

2011:

DNF at Monaco where the American record was set by Lagat at 12:53.60 (7 guys ran 12:59 or faster)

2012:

*finally runs under 13 minutes at pre classic in 12:58.9

in peak form at Zurich only manages 13:09.50 to finish 9th in race where the top 3 ran comfortably under 13 minutes

2013:

6th at prefontaine in 13:08.69

13:05 for 6th in probably his best opportunity to ran low 12:50s. Top 2 finishers 12:51 and another 2 at 12:56 and 12:59

5th in 13:01 at Brussels again top 3 ran 12:59 or better

2014:

4th place in 13:05.97 at Stockholm Top 3 at 12:59 or better (race won by Muktar Edris in 12:54)

4th place at Paris in 13:00.99 race won in under 13 minutes

3rd place at Oslo in 13:03.35 race won in 13:01

*probably his best year in the 5K

2015:

10th place in 13:08 at Brussels, race won by Kejelja in 12:53 just ahead of gebriwhet 12:54, another two under 13 minutes.

As good as Rupp was, he was never even in low 12:50, let alone sub 12:50 shape. It's okay to appreciate how great he was without making up assumptions that are not supported by the facts

nickels wrote:

As good as Rupp was, he was never even in low 12:50, let alone sub 12:50 shape. It's okay to appreciate how great he was without making up assumptions that are not supported by the facts

The "who is better" question is settled by world rankings. Rupp was world ranked 7, 8, 4, 10. The only Americans arguably better were Lagat (10, 9, 4, 2, 6, 2, 5), Chelimo (3, 4, 3, 10), Liquori (3, 1, 2), Prefontaine (10, 4, 5, 6, 9), Maree (3, 10, 9, 6, 5), and maybe Padilla (5,9, 2). I guess you have to add Schul (1).

zzzz wrote:

nickels wrote:

As good as Rupp was, he was never even in low 12:50, let alone sub 12:50 shape. It's okay to appreciate how great he was without making up assumptions that are not supported by the facts

The "who is better" question is settled by world rankings. Rupp was world ranked 7, 8, 4, 10. The only Americans arguably better were Lagat (10, 9, 4, 2, 6, 2, 5), Chelimo (3, 4, 3, 10), Liquori (3, 1, 2), Prefontaine (10, 4, 5, 6, 9), Maree (3, 10, 9, 6, 5), and maybe Padilla (5,9, 2). I guess you have to add Schul (1).

I don’t really know about that. Being ranked 1 in the world in 2019 was significantly harder than 1 in 1960s-70s in any event

No, I didn’t forget anything. I can assure you that the 26:44 race was specifically set up for Galen.

tenkrunner wrote:

I think several of you are not understanding the point of this thread...it's not that the US 5k is the most competitive relative to the rest of the world...it's that there isn't a clear 3...probably 8-10 guys with a realistic shot of making the team...assuming that many people can hit the standard.

This is exactly why it's an EASIER team to make. Lots of runners have the opportunity to make it because the top 3 aren't super strong. A hard team to make would be if there are a definitely top 3 to 5 that are world beaters, giving you no chance unless you run a world top 10 performance. In the 5k based on your list you can be borderline top 10 in the USA and still have a chance. It might be the EASIEST running event to make team USA.

No way Chelimo is a real gold medal threat, and he probably wouldn't be favored to even medal. The Ethiopians are so good right now. They have 5 guys better than Chelimo--2 that are well, well out of his league (Barega, Kejelcha) and two that are out of his league when they are on but are less consistent (Gebhriwet and Edris), and then Bekele, who has a 12:52 to his name. They're all significantly younger than him. There's also Abadi Haddis (12:56 @ 22yo). In Tokyo obviously they only run 3, but I doubt Chelimo does better than beating one of them. At WCs they can run 4 with Edris getting the auto bid.

But that's just one country. If Cheptegei runs he's worlds above Chelimo, and there's Balew, Ingebrigtsen(s), and a bunch of other guys right there. I doubt he medals ever again. He's 29 and will be out of his prime. He may move up successfully, though, I like his form.

I think the team will likely be Chelimo, Lomong, and either Kincaid, McGorty, Fisher or Jenkins. I give Jenkins a real chance if he's training with Engels who has been on a roll. Hill, Mead, and True will be close but it'll be tough for them to kick for the team at this point based on recent results.

These are who I think have a chance (if they run):

Chelimo

Lomong

Centro/Kincaid/Fisher/McGorty/Mead/Jenkins/Hunter

I don't think Ryan Hill or Ben True have a shot - their time has passed. I wouldn't include Hunter either if it weren't for his good 1500m speed that might help him sneak in if the race is slow.

I personally don't like Chelimo very much, but seriously, don't underestimate him like this. Apparently you completly forgot his 2016 and 2017 season (+some more races like Pre Classics last year where he actually beat Barega and finished just 0.05s behind Cheptegei), when he's in top shape he has absolutely no problems to compete with the best of the best. Also 29 doesn't seems very old when you consider that Mo Farah won his first world title at the age of 28.

Also Abadi Hadis died in February, so not very wise to include him in your list.

Rupp was never at the level of Chelimo in a 5k, and he's not even assured of making the team. The 5K is more deep than it's ever been...up front, it might not be as great as 2010-2012, with Lagat, Solinsky, and Rupp, but it's close.

12:58 isn’t bad for the first 5k of the season.