From the time I was a Sophomore in high school to the time I was 30, I ran pretty regularly. During that time I would say I logged at least 25 miles most weeks and had no more than a couple months off due to injury, burnout, or simply being busy. During that time I ran the following PRs:
800m: 2:16 (age 25)
mile: 4:55 (age 25) - the distance i trained for and worked hardest to improve at during my early-mid 20s, trained 45-55 mpw with lots of intervals, tempos and fast reps to get there
5k: 18:42 (age 17) - on a hilly XC course
half-marathon: 1:30:41 (age 23) - after training of 40-50 mpw for a few months
full marathon 3:33: 41 (age 29) - on a greenway, by myself, in 65-degree temps, the day after missing the big-city marathon I trained for due to a stomach bug. Ran 40-55 mpw for 3 months prior to this race
But in the past year I had 8 months with virtually no running as I worked toward the completion of a physical therapy residency program. Now I'm done with the residency and am getting really excited to return to regular running. Part of what I find so exciting about this time is that I lost so much fitness in those 8 months that I feel like I have a fresh slate and can truly rebuild anew. Given what I've read from so many people here and elsewhere, I am interested in starting over as a runner by slowly building up my base over the course of a couple years. In order to keep myself in the right range, I will be using the MAF method and aiming to keep my HR under 149 for all of my runs, with the addition of strides at the end of a few runs per week. Once I've built up to 70 mpw and can cover that ground without feeling trashed, I'll start adding in workouts.
Given the PRs above:
1) Do you all think I have the ability to break 3 hours in the marathon? If so, what mileage do you think it would take?
2) Do you think I have the ability to break 18 mins in a 5k. Again, if so, what mileage do you think it would take?
Feel free to suggest true long-term training ideas. After all, it's not like there are any races coming up any time soon.
Any thoughts would be appreciated. Given that I'm not sub-14 in the 5k I know there will be some LetsRun haters, but I'm willing to wade through their BS for anyone who is interested in providing their opinion without being abusive.