The worry is that kids can contribute to community spread. Say what you will about the risk to the actual kids (I'd say very low), but the concern is prolonging/expanding the virus' spread by opening schools.
Again, I'm all for having school in areas with low positivity rates. Israel may be a cautionary tale for places in the Southeast if it causes another surge in cases and deaths.
The main reason there will be a huge waive of foreclosures and evictions is because there is a lot of money to be made in that kind of environment. There is a lot of cash out there waiting for the price of multifamily and single family real estate to crater.
Providing relief for people affected by the virus is actually relatively easy and inexpensive compared to other "stimulus" programs. Interest rates are insanely low. The government should require mortgage lenders to refi anyone who is behind and give them forbearance until they are back to work. The government can throw in some money to the lenders to make it worth their while (to the extent the banks haven't already received funding). For renters, same idea. Renegotiated leases with some government money to balance out arrears.
The alternative is mass evictions and foreclosures with massive amounts of homelessness. And the potential for some 2008 style market crashes as banks and big multifamily companies rack up huge loses.
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Tone%20TrollLead Foil Hat wrote:
interested reader wrote:
(1) I have a pretty good clue. Whether you feel I do is of no concern to me.
(2) I didn't call you stupid. But you did me just now.
No, you did not call me stupid, you just insinuated an arrogant prejudice against an entire group of good and smart hardworking Americans that disagree with your world view.... and essentially called the stupid:
"I look down on the conspiracy theory-spouting, science-denying, anti-public health, "liberty above all," "party in close contact because we all gotta die eventually amiright...?" crowd."
Precious Roy wrote:
The main reason there will be a huge waive of foreclosures and evictions is because there is a lot of money to be made in that kind of environment. There is a lot of cash out there waiting for the price of multifamily and single family real estate to crater.
Providing relief for people affected by the virus is actually relatively easy and inexpensive compared to other "stimulus" programs. Interest rates are insanely low. The government should require mortgage lenders to refi anyone who is behind and give them forbearance until they are back to work. The government can throw in some money to the lenders to make it worth their while (to the extent the banks haven't already received funding). For renters, same idea. Renegotiated leases with some government money to balance out arrears.
The alternative is mass evictions and foreclosures with massive amounts of homelessness. And the potential for some 2008 style market crashes as banks and big multifamily companies rack up huge loses.
I think the main thing will be forbearance, not eviction. Few landlords want empty units right now. But it will be a spectrum of events.
One ideas I like conceptually for mortgages is to say 'ok you missed 4 months of mortgage payments - we'll just tack them onto the end of your mortgage.'
I like that conceptually but no freaking idea if it is legal or how it would be done in practice without giant legal costs for everyone involved.
Death reporting close back to normal distribution.
50% of reported deaths today are attributed to the past 7-days
25% of reported deaths attributed to 8-14 days ago
25% of reported deaths attributed to 15+ days ago
People criticized Georgia's reporting methods when they made the change a few months ago. Now most realize it is the correct method in order to get an accurate picture of the timing
and spread of the pandemic.
Wear a mask
Social distance
Wash your hands
GET TESTED
Precious Roy wrote:
The main reason there will be a huge waive of foreclosures and evictions is because there is a lot of money to be made in that kind of environment. There is a lot of cash out there waiting for the price of multifamily and single family real estate to crater.
Providing relief for people affected by the virus is actually relatively easy and inexpensive compared to other "stimulus" programs. Interest rates are insanely low. The government should require mortgage lenders to refi anyone who is behind and give them forbearance until they are back to work. The government can throw in some money to the lenders to make it worth their while (to the extent the banks haven't already received funding). For renters, same idea. Renegotiated leases with some government money to balance out arrears.
The alternative is mass evictions and foreclosures with massive amounts of homelessness. And the potential for some 2008 style market crashes as banks and big multifamily companies rack up huge loses.
This is true. We made a lot of money during the recession cashing in on foreclosed and dirt-cheap properties. We could have made a lot more, but we didn't have the capital. Ever since we've increased our cash and easily liquidated assets in the event another real estate opportunity came about again. It is coming. BTW, there is MUCH more money to be made in multi-unit housing than single family housing. Also, commercial is a crap-shoot (plus, it's out of my wheelhouse).
Wear a mask
Social distance
Wash your hands
GET TESTED
Unfortunately our leadership is too weak to ever consider implementing any of this. The United States is a failed country.
Democrat media screams that coronavirus is surging.
It’s not.
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1288539472129404928?s=20
agip wrote:
[quote]Precious Roy wrote:
The main reason there will be a huge waive of foreclosures and evictions is because there is a lot of money to be made in that kind of environment. There is a lot of cash out there waiting for the price of multifamily and single family real estate to crater.
Providing relief for people affected by the virus is actually relatively easy and inexpensive compared to other "stimulus" programs. Interest rates are insanely low. The government should require mortgage lenders to refi anyone who is behind and give them forbearance until they are back to work. The government can throw in some money to the lenders to make it worth their while (to the extent the banks haven't already received funding). For renters, same idea. Renegotiated leases with some government money to balance out arrears.
The alternative is mass evictions and foreclosures with massive amounts of homelessness. And the potential for some 2008 style market crashes as banks and big multifamily companies rack up huge loses.
I think the main thing will be forbearance, not eviction. Few landlords want empty units right now. But it will be a spectrum of events.
Want to bet?
Is that what happened in 2009?
Loving the goalpost-moving. First it was “it’s the flu bro.” The deaths and excess deaths dwarf it, so now it’s they’re all old people who were going to die anyway. Real nice and compassionate. Also, let’s ignore all of the people dealing with long-term effects, lengthy hospitalizations, and the like because they didn’t die.
Also what’s this point of this antibody argument? Is it to say there’s herd immunity (clearly there’s not)? Or is it to encourage us to let it play out like NYC?
[quote]THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Loving the goalpost-moving. First it was “it’s the flu bro.” The deaths and excess deaths dwarf it, so now it’s they’re all old people who were going to die anyway. Real nice and compassionate.
In NY and MA and likely elsewhere over 60% of the deaths took place in nursing homes.
According to a 2010 study, the median stay before death in nursing homes in America is five months.
So I think it is safe to say:
1. Many of the 60% plus of the "covid" deaths would have occurred absent the covid;
2. Many others died a few months sooner due to covid.
Hardly makes sense to blow up the economy and make tens of millions homeless and bankrupt state and local governments to respond to this
Anonie wrote:
[quote]THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Loving the goalpost-moving. First it was “it’s the flu bro.” The deaths and excess deaths dwarf it, so now it’s they’re all old people who were going to die anyway. Real nice and compassionate.
In NY and MA and likely elsewhere over 60% of the deaths took place in nursing homes.
According to a 2010 study, the median stay before death in nursing homes in America is five months.
So I think it is safe to say:
1. Many of the 60% plus of the "covid" deaths would have occurred absent the covid;
2. Many others died a few months sooner due to covid.
Hardly makes sense to blow up the economy and make tens of millions homeless and bankrupt state and local governments to respond to this
Even if we believe what you are saying, there would still be hundreds of thousands of people dying worldwide. I believe this is enough death for us to do something as little as wearing a mask in public when around others we aren't living with.
Anonie wrote:
[quote]THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Loving the goalpost-moving. First it was “it’s the flu bro.” The deaths and excess deaths dwarf it, so now it’s they’re all old people who were going to die anyway. Real nice and compassionate.
In NY and MA and likely elsewhere over 60% of the deaths took place in nursing homes.
According to a 2010 study, the median stay before death in nursing homes in America is five months.
So I think it is safe to say:
1. Many of the 60% plus of the "covid" deaths would have occurred absent the covid;
2. Many others died a few months sooner due to covid.
Hardly makes sense to blow up the economy and make tens of millions homeless and bankrupt state and local governments to respond to this
This analysis indicates an extremely poor understanding of statistics and low intelligence. Sorry.
Anonie wrote:
[quote]THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Loving the goalpost-moving. First it was “it’s the flu bro.” The deaths and excess deaths dwarf it, so now it’s they’re all old people who were going to die anyway. Real nice and compassionate.
In NY and MA and likely elsewhere over 60% of the deaths took place in nursing homes.
According to a 2010 study, the median stay before death in nursing homes in America is five months.
So I think it is safe to say:
1. Many of the 60% plus of the "covid" deaths would have occurred absent the covid;
2. Many others died a few months sooner due to covid.
Hardly makes sense to blow up the economy and make tens of millions homeless and bankrupt state and local governments to respond to this
Most of us are trying to do our part to open the economy back up by wearing masks and social distancing. If we would have had a national strategy and national leadership we would be mostly done with this now, like most other countries.
The goal of those refusing to comply with basis precautions, like wearing masks, is to keep the economy closed down as long as possible. It defies belief.
Agreed. Full lock downs and stay at home orders are unproven and dangerous and should never have been considered in the first place.[/quote]
tell that to New Zealand.
logical thinkers agree wrote:
Democrat media screams that coronavirus is surging.
It’s not.
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1288539472129404928?s=20
This pretty much sums up the COVID debate. The post above this one has a tweet from Dr. Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins and one of the top experts in the US on infectious diseases and public health policy. And a relatively moderate figure politically having collaborated with the American Enterprise Institute to work on a policy for safe reopening with Bush appointees, Scott Gottlieb and and Mark McClellan.
And then you have a tweet from Alex Berenson. Berenson went from a respected business reporter at NYT to a complete quack writing a bizarre book on how smoking weed will turn everyone into violent psychopaths and now becoming an arm chair epidemiologist and COVID denier.
Lead Foil Hat wrote:No, you did not call me stupid, you just insinuated an arrogant prejudice against an entire group of good and smart hardworking Americans that disagree with your world view.... and essentially called the stupid:
"I look down on the conspiracy theory-spouting, science-denying, anti-public health, "liberty above all," "party in close contact because we all gotta die eventually amiright...?" crowd."
Hey look, I thought you were proud to be part of that group. I'm not sure why you think I'm suggesting you're stupid. All those things, yes, and sociopathic on top of it all, sure. But stupid? I don't know that and didn't suggest it. If you want to consider yourself stupid for being those things (you seem to be calling yourself stupid), that's on you...
To be clear, disagreeing with someone =/= calling them stupid. If you've read "you're stupid!" in what I wrote, that reflects your biases, not my words or intent.
07/29 Data
Very bad goings on in the US.
Rolling 7 day average of daily deaths.
US: New cyclical high by a lot - one of the sharpest rises I can remember seeing.
World: Scraping along on a 5-day-long plateau near cyclical highs.
FL: New all time high
AZ: Seems to be moving down the backside of the curve
CA: New all time high
TX: New all time high
Adding all four problem states into one: New all time high
This might be the worst fact: adding all four problem states into one not only hit a new high, but growth in that number has re-accelerated. The trend had been slowing growth, but with the bad news of 7/28 and 7/29 we're back to 19% growth week over week. Ouch.