Mr. Renato Canova: Could You Please Answer a Question About Effective Ways to Improve the Lactate Threshold?

double standard

According to your calculations, is up to you to justify why Paula never did yet a sub 30:00.

Besides your figures makes no sense for me, You relate male performances with female runners, as you use actual records with Junxia 1993 performance.

My answer is simpleand logic; Paula never did it because she don´t take such a potent drug than the Junxia.

osto wrote:

John Ngugi... I saw him in mid 1995 just when his appeal was finally going thought (remember he missed 2-3 years of training/racing). He was over weight and had not run at all, guessing he would never race again. So he started training, and as a way to “catch up on lost time” he was running up to 30km AM and PM. His knees could not handle it after such a long period of no training and kept getting injured – it had nothing to do with him not being good without drugs

Yes, injuries and monster training - this is also a problem that the drugs can solve. Like steroids or testerone or nandralone. As Renato said, if i have someone that trains 40kilos and 1000m/2:28 etc. etc - or in the case of Junxia and the chinese women - they did that training stuff really - i don´t doubt - they were motivated to do so, or in obidience- but tye reason why his body handle that is... ?

Sir Lance-alot wrote:

How ON EARTH could they produce those female times, but not do the ANYTHING in men's distance running????

There is only one point I disagree with Antonio on: the possiblity of clean 29:30 by a women. I think it is quite possible. But it won't be a chinese women, it won't be Paula Radcliffe, but it will be an East African women. It will be a female version of a Tergat or a Bekele or a Geb. A female version of one of them will do it, and there IS a female version of them out there, I am sure.

The reason they produce females is because that woman in China have a lower social status than the man. To prove so, the number of abortions among couples that they find the woman is pregnant with a future girl. The woman is made to obey and not complain. To suffer passively and not rebellion.

Of course that one day ...a woman will break that 29:30. But not today, and ther´s no chance that she may have done that 15:04+14:26. A girl that used to train hard for so long, that´s very good, but never did less than 15:10 in 5000m, suddently runs a 10000m with the first 5000m in his PB and then the second part in 5000m WR (14:43 at that time i guess). NO WAY ! or that the track is short, or that she did just 24laps and not 25 - inicially i did include that chance - or that she did that with a bike, but Ma Juren "blood turtle" and hard schedules that´s not enough to justify that perfromance in the time they did that. Only one chance - she did that with drugs.

I believe Wang Junxia's times and admire her greatly as a runner and a person.

did you watch her running 10000m in 30.01.9 alone and with a bad weather ?

It was during the european championship 2002 and ask your compatriot what she thinks about.

She was on the same race as here and was not able to follow her pace.

A better condition and someone with her ( at least until 5k), she will beat the WR.

Having had a chance to spend time with the Chinese women biathletes, I have am quite convinved that the track times can be clean. The biathletes were training remarkably hard, are dedicated in away that most athletes are not and now they have worked their way into the top group. There is no reason why the athletes could not have done the same if they were training properly and full time.

The main question though is why anyone should base your analysis of Chinese drug taking against the results of Paula. Paula is remarkable in that she has produced her results by hard work and application. She is not the most genetically talented athlete and her running technique at speed stinks. I am inclined to say that based upon the performance of Paula, the world record for 10k could and should be even faster than it is. I still see no hard evidence that the Chinese took drugs. (and you cannot read across swimmers to athletes or shall we read across cyclists in Western Europe to athletes too? Also you cannot use the men and women argument. UK is in that situation now!) I see lots of evidence that the Chinese women trained at levels that most western men athletes do not even dream about.

The Chinese women may have been on drugs, but they also could have run those times by hard work. The times are only unbelievable to people who have not seen ruthlessly professional and hard training.

Glen wrote:

The Chinese women may have been on drugs, but they also could have run those times by hard work. The times are only unbelievable to people who have not seen ruthlessly professional and hard training.

A lot of people have seen or done "ruthlessly hard" training. And consider that Paula Radcliffe, whose 2:15:25 WR is so utterly dominant that the nearest person is THREE MINUTES, 22 SECONDS BEHIND (like Tergat having 2:04:55 and the 2nd fastest person EVER having 2:08), and even she cannot break that record. The people who think the record is clean ignore the OVERWHELMING evidence she, and MANY other Chinese athletes, were dirty. Some guy said she CONFESSED on the BBC! She confessed to it; where is your argument?

Its very hard to believe the Chinese records but I always give the benefit of the doubt and so respect the times until proven otherwise. I admire Renato's statistical arguments and find them compelling. What right have we to be surprised when a country with 1 million dedicated, selected athletes produce a small number of amazing runners with the right, hard training? How can a country (US) where 40% of women are obese and another 40% starve themselves compete with this?

Glen's tounge-in-cheek remark caps it for me. I have to confess i hadnt thought about it before but the pseudo-evidence that because China hasn't produced any male runners of note the women must be on drugs can very easily be applied to British distance running. With Paula setting huge records, Kelly winning two golds in Athens, Yelling winning the euro cross and the men doing...ummm, nothing perhaps it time to throw blanket suspicion over British athletics. PR uses emu oil, Qunxia uses turtle blood, notice the similarities?

Your stats are bogus.

40% U.S. women obese? Wrong. 40% anorexic? Dead wrong.

In general, women are on a far more level playing field than men, with a wider distribution of national talents in the distances (reference Deena's and Paula's successes, though non-Kenyans).

England: Cram, Coe, Ovett, Yates, East, Whiteman, Keska, Mayock, Brown, and probably others I am forgetting.

There are quite a few men.

As for supplements, no one is saying emu oil or turtle blood is some sort of drug. The point is, it is humorously noted that turtle blood or "reindeer milk" type concontions have often been used by athletes suspected of or convicted of blood doping.

As for presumption of innocence, many of those who think Wang was dirty are all for assuming everyone else is innocent until proven guilty.

But this is different. The record is so far out there, the circumstances are so bizarre (a 2 day period in September 1993, and another few day period in 1997, both meets in China, unmeasured tracks, no way to verify if laps were counted correctly, no drug testing, and on and on), and the way in which it was achieved simply not believable.

An examples was already given: are you saying that if Bekele did 25:50 with the second half in 12:36 (under existing WR, as Wang did) you would believe this record?

How about if the Ethiopian federation held a 3 day trials event.

3 days before the race, Gebrselassie, Bekele, and Sihine go for 3 x 5,000m in 13:30 with 3 minute rest. Three days before.

At the meet, in 2 days, in the middle of Ethiopia, where there are no drug testers, no official track measurements, and no verification of correct lap counting (you can videotapes of every other WR out there; why can't you get a tape of the Chinese WR's? Becuase they don't exist!), and the results are the following:

Men's 1500m:

Some obscure Ethiopian runs 3:24

Men's 3000:

Bekele runs 7:12, way, way ahead of previous record (as did Wang)

Men's 5000:

Sihine runs 12:35

Men's 10,000:

Bekele runs 25:50, with first half in 13:15, second half in 12:35

Would you believe the results of this meet?

Because that is what happened, adjusted for women's times, in China.

And if you believe in that type of "showing," there are several hundred million people out there eager to con you into buying some piece of land that doesn't exist.

I read this way back on page 27 about Antonio speaking about Marius Bakkens' poor place at Athens, but it was never answered. So, if Marius reads this at all, he said that one does not lose shape in 10 days of resting/training. But to him; what happened in Athens that made you go from 13:06 to 13:36? Was it all a bad feeling, or a fall, or what else? Thanks too to Antonio for his great contribution.

JonD, yes i made up those stats but the point is that the cultural divide is massive between the US and China. American women are (very generally) less likely to commit to a program like the one run in China in the early 90s.

Truthfully, I do find myself being suspicious of the womens times but I also think its very hypocritical to accuse the Chinese women of drug taking and not also suspecting athletes like Paula, Deena, Ndereba and co. Its also hypocritical to assume the innocence of Gebr & Bekele & Komen. After all a 12'59 second 5k in a 10k is pretty astounding considering the caliber of athlete who could never do it once. Has anyone even come close to 7'20 for 3k since Komen ran it?

I realise the circumstances were bizarre but China is a big country and has every right to hold their own meets. Suspicions of faulty lap counting are unfair. Are we to believe every in the stadium that week was in on the con and that none have spoken about it since?

Lastly, the Brit issue (women v men) was a tongue-in-cheek remark but the point is that at the moment, there are no Brit men competing at the international level (ex. Brown) and plenty of women.

In any case 'insitutional doping' has a way of becoming public eventually. East German & Russian athletics, Juventus football club, cycling etc. Time will tell.

The only reason Chinese women could commit to that intensity and volume was because they used illicit means to recover from it!

Yes, El Guerrouj did 7:23.09, Gebrselassie ran many 7:25's, Kipchoge did 7:27, and Morceli did 7:25. The 3K is seldom run for record purposes. Only El Guerrouj (once) and Gebrselassie (5-6 times) tried for the record.

As for the 12:57 second half, Bekele's PR is 12:37. That is perfectly believable. Wang ran faster than her and anyone's PB for the second 5,000! And Bekele's first 5000 was 13:52, very slow for him. Wang did 15:05 for the first 5000, a 30:10 pace!

China is a communist nation. There is not outside intervention or verification. The situation is without parallel.

The men have made some amazing jumps too.

I remember being VERY surprised when Geb took the 5k from, correct me if I'm wrong....12:55 to 12:44? Wow!!!

And now, we have second half of 10ks in under 13min. Much faster than Moorcroft 5k WR in 1982.

Can it not be conceivable that the jumps for women will be much greater, due to 5k and 10k at the world level being much newer for them?

Cheers

GILT

He suffered of stomach problems days before OG in Athens.

GILT wrote:

The men have made some amazing jumps too.

I remember being VERY surprised when Geb took the 5k from, correct me if I'm wrong....12:55 to 12:44? Wow!!!

And now, we have second half of 10ks in under 13min. Much faster than Moorcroft 5k WR in 1982.

Can it not be conceivable that the jumps for women will be much greater, due to 5k and 10k at the world level being much newer for them?

Cheers

GILT

You are very much missing the point.

Gebrselassie debuted in 1993, I believe, in his first really big race at International level with a 13:05 in Europe right before the 1993 World Championships in Gothenburg. He caught all sorts of fiery crap from his federation for disobeying their stupid orders, but they let him run because his time was so good. He was doing workouts faster than Fita Bayissa and everyone in his group, and he did a 13:03/27:46 silver/gold double. The next year he was getting smacked by Skah in 13:10 type races, but he set a 12:56.96 WR at Hengelo. In 95 he took it to another level with 26:43, 12:44, and a WC gold at 10K. This was perhaps one of his best years ever. 25.1 for the last 200 of a 27:12 10,000, great competition, 22 years old...he was unstoppable. The progression is believable; less than 1 second per lap off his previous best.

Also, note in all interviews over the years, Gebrselassie always speaks about "training harder" or "increasing his training." It is likely in earlier years he did not train nearly as hard as he trained in later years. His training gave him the progressions, so earlier times were run more of talent and general aerobic base. In 1996 he never ran faster and lost a few times, even over 5K to Komen. In 1997 he brought it lower by a few seconds, lower again in 1998 (12:39.36) and then no more improvement after that ever. So 4 improvements taking off 17 seconds in a 10 year long career on the track. Perfectly reasonable. Then you have Wang. I do not know anything of her past results, but it would be interesting to see what she did beforehand. All Geb's races were in Europe in the public eye. Wang runs 29:31 for 10K, second half UNDER THE CURRENT 5K WORLD RECORD, LAST 3K IN 8:16, IN THE MIDDLE OF A FOREST IN CHINA!!! Are you kidding me? No drug testing. Geb was tested. No videotape of that race. All Geb's races you can see with your own2 eyes. No government sympathetic to Western media sources; all European races have tons of reports on WR's. Finally, if we are to believe what some have already said, Wang might have admitted she used drugs!!

Are you going to deny it if someone pulls up a link where Wang says she used drugs! Some crazy, crazy crap went on in Ma Junren's camp. Read this article, particularly the last section, where scientists discuss this "caterpillar fungus" nonsense and point out it may actually be a performance enhacing drug!:

Sir Lance-alot wrote:

Are we to believe that in a matter of 5 days, Wang CLEANLY and LEGITIMATELY ran 3:51, 8:06, 8:12, and 29:31?????

The statistical probablity of that occuring, while beyond my capacity to actually calculate, has to be nearly 0% chance. I'm talking about hundreds if not thousands of standard deviations away from the mean on a normal distrubution plot. Each time, by itself, has a much better chance at being legit. I.e., a 3:51 isn't that crazy if that is the only effort in question. However, when all four of those marks were run in a span of 5 days, and when the other top marks in the world are taken into account... the results are statistically significant enough to deem them impossible.

A similar case is the analysis of Barry Bonds' record-breaking 73 home run season in 2001. During 1998, 99 and 2000, Bonds hit a home run in 8.65% of his times at bat. During 2001, he batted 476 times. Considering his home run count as a binomial random variable with n = 476 and p = 0.0865, what is the probability of 73 or more home runs? The answer roughly 0.00% chance, using the binomial model of: x is B(476, 0.0865). µ(subx) = 40.7 and sigma(subx) = 6.10 --> the z score = (73 - 40.7)/6.1 = 5.30 (the number of standard deviations from the mean), which correspondes to a probability of 0.0000, or essentially zero chance - yet it did happen, meaning that something was different that 2001 season than in previous seasons

In contrast, Mark McGwire's 1998 record of 70 home runs was far more likely - by using the same format, he had a probability of 6.55% chance at hitting 70+ homers.

Trackhead:

Good comments! Email when you get a chance. Tinman @

runfastcoach@hotmail.com

Sure, one can lose "shape" in 10 days of rest. Drops in one's blood volume are found after 5 days, so max VO2 and 5k time is worsens. Tinman

Tinman wrote:

Sure, one can lose "shape" in 10 days of rest. Drops in one's blood volume are found after 5 days, so max VO2 and 5k time is worsens. Tinman

10 days of rest as in lighter training before a big competition.