Here's my predictions (honestly though too close to even make accurate predictions):
1. Taylor Ewert
2. Zofia Dudek
3. Marlee Starliper
4. Abby Vanderkooi
5. Katelynne Hart
6. Sydney Masciarelli
Might be a little biased considering I'm from the midwest though... regardless of the result it should be a good race!
Foot Locker 2019 wrote:
Ditto!
Dude I'm going to tell you something, Katelyn Tuohy is the greatest High School distance runner ever male or female
She has the course record at every course she has ever run at!
No other Runner is even close to doing this
Not only does she have the course record... but she has the top several times at all the courses she's run at more than once!!!
Including historic cross-country courses like Manhattan in Bowdoin Park
Manhattan she has the top two times ever!
Bowdoin Park is one of the most famous cross-country courses in New York state
She has the fastest eight times ever run there!
She has won every race from start to finish for the past 3 years
No one has ever done this before
Nico young had a great race but he raced with the pack for the first half mile
Tuohy has taken the lead from the gun at every cross-country race she has run for the last 3 years and except for one time she has won all the Races by at least 17 seconds
In three years time she had one close race, 1-17 second, and then every other race was greater than 20 seconds and usually upwards of 40 seconds to a minute and that's when top Elite Talent is in the race
We witnessed a once-in-a-lifetime achievement! No other Runner will ever dominate for three years straight like she did.
Yes she might have some Growing Pains, or track times might be a little down this season. But no one else has ever dominated distance running the way she has for the last three years male or female in the United States High School!
How many times has she won Footlocker nationals?
Jedsdead wrote:
THese kids are not showing up at a regional meet (where they often are traveling for hours, paying hotels, etc etc) and not giving a real effort to win. If that's the case, why are they trying to win any race except for states and nationals?? None of the rest really matter do they?
Runners of the class to compete at the top level of Footlocker Nationals are not so concerned about "winning" a qualifying race. I'm fact it's a better strategy to gauge one's effort and take note of how the competition is doing, to be able to use that information in the final when it counts.
[quoteI raced...and I always tried to win...every time. The kids I've coached have tried to win every race, every time.[/quote]
I bet the kids you coach are forced and coerced into doing it YOUR way, or else you berate them endlessly. People like you should not be coaching.
Tuohy stan wrote:
Tuohy ran slower at nxn because of the stress, not because of a physical reason
Indeed. wrote:
She would really have been stressed in San Diego, which is why she chose to not run there.
runnerdave wrote:
Are you the same un-registered troll that's been bashing Tuohy through this whole thread? It's interesting that all the girls who "could've" beaten Tuohy haven't run against her. Why? Because Tuohy has never lost. What other girl has never lost? Now brush your teeth and go to bed.
No, that was my first comment about Tuohy. The fact is that if Tuohy was so confident about winning this weekend, she would be running in San Diego, instead of turning down the invite she received. I'm sure that she's much more aware of her current capabilities then you are.
Rockland wrote:
A lot of the individual qualifiers at FL Reg's and NXR's are smart enough to run "just to qualify" for nationals. Given they often have 6-8 consecutive weeks of hard racing , it's important to know when to give a max effort, and when to leave something in the tank. Sometimes they will talk about this in post race interviews and sometimes not. A great example of this is Graydon Morris, who pretty consistently just qualifies at FL South, but perfectly peaks for a strong finish at FLN. I also believe at FLMW girls race, the front 4 had a big gap on the field, so Hart cruised into the finish knowing she had qualified, "survive and advance".
There is some risk in this, as if you cruise a race and finish 11th, that's a bummer. Also the second tier kids are all giving max efforts to try to get those last spots.
This isn't really making an excuse for someone, it's just their race plan.
I'm not disagreeing with you...I fully realize that part way through a race a runner has to determine what is best for them. If the leaders are out of reach, then there is no need to push...just qualify. But they will not know this until near the end of the race, so the first 3/4 of the race is full out. And I have never seen a racer give up when they have a good chance to win. Hart and Dudek were a great example. At NXR you also have that odd mix of team and individual qualifying, so it can be confusing as to where you and your team stand.
Anyway...looking forward to the race...
Starliper
Dudek
Hart
Ewert
Masciarelli
Vandercooi
Now you really are making no sense. Some of these girls could run 4:50 for the first mile but they are running 5:15 in an effort to conserve energy for the latter part of the race. When they get to the 1/2 way point in a pack of 6-8 runners, it is pretty easy to coast home in a 5:40 to maintain 8th place instead of running an all out 5:20 at that point.
After rewatching the race and reviewing the stats, I am convinced that Tuohy would only finish about 3rd this week and Hart will be out of the top 5. Both have started a slow slide. It is unfietunate but happens to most elite high school runners. While this was happening, a HS soph won the 800 at the BU meet. She is my pick as a future NCAA great in the 800, 1500, and XC. But some of you can assume that Tuohy will be the best forever just you thought about Cain.
Indeed. wrote:
Tuohy stan wrote:
Tuohy ran slower at nxn because of the stress, not because of a physical reason
Indeed. wrote:
She would really have been stressed in San Diego, which is why she chose to not run there.
runnerdave wrote:
Are you the same un-registered troll that's been bashing Tuohy through this whole thread? It's interesting that all the girls who "could've" beaten Tuohy haven't run against her. Why? Because Tuohy has never lost. What other girl has never lost? Now brush your teeth and go to bed.
No, that was my first comment about Tuohy. The fact is that if Tuohy was so confident about winning this weekend, she would be running in San Diego, instead of turning down the invite she received. I'm sure that she's much more aware of her current capabilities then you are.
Um, she is running the USATF National meet instead. Running at a higher level.
Jedsdead wrote:
D3 is slow wrote:
Some people don't understand what a qualifying meet is. Ever watch a qualifying heat of a 1500 and everybody jogs the first 1100? We don't then say that a 4 minute 1500 finisher got dropped by finishing 2nd while he looked back and forth while maintaining his spot. He runs 4 flat in the qualifier then runs 3:38 in the final. How did that happen?
Comparing a Regional XC meet to to a track and field heat is silly. Running 100m heats to get to the finals is a completely differnt story than running a cross country race. THese kids are not showing up at a regional meet (where they often are traveling for hours, paying hotels, etc etc) and not giving a real effort to win. If that's the case, why are they trying to win any race except for states and nationals?? None of the rest really matter do they?
I'm not saying that they are going to kill themselves at the end of the race to finish 5th rather than 6th...but these kids actually have some pride and are there to compete. I raced...and I always tried to win...every time. The kids I've coached have tried to win every race, every time.
Listen to Masciarelli's interview...her and Starliper had broken away, they were surging, Marlee took a hill and Syd couldn't match her....doesn't sound like someone who wasn't hoping to win.
I was at the MW meet. Those 4 were way way out front about 1 mile into the race. The course was a mess. They were together through at least 2 miles.
Given their age and knowledge of what they had coming...
Vanderkooi - sophomore had nothing until FL Finals
Dudek - senior racing euros the next week
Ewert - senior racing NXN the next week
Hart - senior racing NXN the next week
I'd guess maybe the seniors who had another race weren't necessarily interested in grinding it out on a tough course while the sophomore is a sophomore who had nothing for a few weeks.
Dudek ran over 1 minute faster than Vanderkooi at the Michigan State finals on the same course and same day. Now it sounds like Vanderkooi had low iron then and is better now so maybe she has closed the gap but I kind of doubt that Dudek was pushing the whole way at MW.
It's going to be interesting, not sure what to think of Hart, hoping it was just 1 off day which happens and all 4 of these girls and more really go after it. Could be exciting.
No, that was my first comment about Tuohy. The fact is that if Tuohy was so confident about winning this weekend, she would be running in San Diego, instead of turning down the invite she received. I'm sure that she's much more aware of her current capabilities then you are.[/quote]
Turning down her invite....didn't realize FL started giving out invites...
First comment about Tuohy...yep, sure....
batting a 1000% on this one
Race walk to obscurity wrote:
Now you really are making no sense. Some of these girls could run 4:50 for the first mile but they are running 5:15 in an effort to conserve energy for the latter part of the race. When they get to the 1/2 way point in a pack of 6-8 runners, it is pretty easy to coast home in a 5:40 to maintain 8th place instead of running an all out 5:20 at that point.
you are saying that these girls can run a 4:50 first mile...but they are holding back to 5:15...friend you are watching very differnt races than me....
Your comment was that the first 3/4 of the race is all out. If all out at the mile, the top girls would be 4:40. They will only split 5:15 tomorrow. So no, we don't know what race you will be watching where the girls run all out at the start.
Tuohy has never received an invite to Foot Locker, that's a yearly urban legend. Nike offers at large invites to Foot Locker runners, but it does not work the other way around. The only way for Tuohy to make Foot Locker is to qualify at FL Northeast, which sadly is the same day (and time) as the Nike NXR NY Northeast regional.
Tuohy has always gone the Nike route, because her team was usually in the running for an at large invite to NXR. This year North Rockland finished 3rd at NXR NY, but did not earn an at large bid. It was her team's best race of the year, and her buddy H Morales, managed to grab an individual spot as well in her best race, so I'm pretty sure she was very happy with her decision to support her team.
I respect her decision. There is no path to get her to Footlocker. But had she been able to run both, she would lose tomorrow.
by your own theory, wouldn't the sophomore 800 runner you have now tabbed for NCAA greatness go through the same slow slide during her own senior year?
here we go:
A rejuvenated Hart and Starliper will push the pace. The lead pack will include VanderKooi, Dudek, Ewert and Masciarelli lurking at the back. At about 2 miles Hart and Starliper will finally break away followed by Dudek and Masciarelli. With about 400m to go Starliper will fall off the pace, and Dudek and Masciarelli will catch Hart. Masciarelli wins another long sprint finish. The top 3 all break 17 minutes.
1 - Masciarelli
2 - Dudek
3 - Hart
4 - VanderKooi
5 - Ewert
6 - Starliper
The pundits have written off Masciarelli based on Mayor's Cup (illness) and Foot Locker NE (2nd place on par with last year's time/fitness). I was impressed with her strategy at FL last year, she made her move over the entire last mile accelerating into the sprint finish. She also proved that she is a reliable competitor when she won the 5k and 2 mile at NBON last year.
7 - Appleton
8 - David
9 - McNatt
10 - Parks
Breakout races for Appleton, David and McNatt. Parks runs her best XC ever to fully capitalize on her "at large" invite.
They are kids - not servants wrote:
Jedsdead wrote:
THese kids are not showing up at a regional meet (where they often are traveling for hours, paying hotels, etc etc) and not giving a real effort to win. If that's the case, why are they trying to win any race except for states and nationals?? None of the rest really matter do they?
Runners of the class to compete at the top level of Footlocker Nationals are not so concerned about "winning" a qualifying race. I'm fact it's a better strategy to gauge one's effort and take note of how the competition is doing, to be able to use that information in the final when it counts.
[quoteI raced...and I always tried to win...every time. The kids I've coached have tried to win every race, every time.
I bet the kids you coach are forced and coerced into doing it YOUR way, or else you berate them endlessly. People like you should not be coaching.[/quote]
So the runners of the class to complete at FL are not trying to win the regionals? They are taking it easy, and just doing enough to qualify? If that's the case, then it would reflect in their speed ratings being lower for the NXN/FL regional qualifiers than their other races where they were trying to win, correct?
In 2019 for the top FLN attendees, at the time of the regional qualifier (so not counting NXN), 6 or the top 10 boys had their highest speed rating at a qualifier, and 9 of the top 10 girls. For many of these racers, that speed rating was the highest of their career. Looks like they were actually racing to me.
I'm not debating that runners don't hold back at the end once they know they have qualified. But these kids are competitive...they want to win. They want to place higher than other runners.
As for the coaching issues you raise above...wow, thanks for the personal attack. But I volunteer coached at a country school many years ago- junior high and high school. We travelled by pickup to other communities within 1 - 2 hrs away. No States, no Regionals, nothing but racing for fun and pride. Most of the time was actually spent raising funds as there wasn't even a track. The kids just ran around a football field which was in terrible shape. Our message to the kids was simply 'always show respect, never give up'. Sorry if you find that offensive and inappropriate.
Jed is dumb wrote:
Your comment was that the first 3/4 of the race is all out. If all out at the mile, the top girls would be 4:40. They will only split 5:15 tomorrow. So no, we don't know what race you will be watching where the girls run all out at the start.
the first 3/4 is run full out, as in at 5k XC race speed....not a full out 1 mile sprint...they are running the best race they can for the first portion of the race to ensure they qualify and hopefully win/place as well as they can.....what the frick are you talking about....good lord!!
pre diktor wrote:
here we go:
A rejuvenated Hart and Starliper will push the pace. The lead pack will include VanderKooi, Dudek, Ewert and Masciarelli lurking at the back. At about 2 miles Hart and Starliper will finally break away followed by Dudek and Masciarelli. With about 400m to go Starliper will fall off the pace, and Dudek and Masciarelli will catch Hart. Masciarelli wins another long sprint finish. The top 3 all break 17 minutes.
1 - Masciarelli
2 - Dudek
3 - Hart
4 - VanderKooi
5 - Ewert
6 - Starliper
The pundits have written off Masciarelli based on Mayor's Cup (illness) and Foot Locker NE (2nd place on par with last year's time/fitness). I was impressed with her strategy at FL last year, she made her move over the entire last mile accelerating into the sprint finish. She also proved that she is a reliable competitor when she won the 5k and 2 mile at NBON last year.
7 - Appleton
8 - David
9 - McNatt
10 - Parks
Breakout races for Appleton, David and McNatt. Parks runs her best XC ever to fully capitalize on her "at large" invite.
Wow, that's a pretty detailed prediction...I have to agree that lead pack will be fun to watch. And I do hope for Hart to have a strong bounceback race. Was really happy to see Parks get in after the Regional disappointment...to bad Cochran was injured through.
Respectful in NY wrote:
I respect her decision. There is no path to get her to Footlocker. But had she been able to run both, she would lose tomorrow.
Look, didn't I tell you to go to bed? Now, go to your room, you little brat!
