We also will be doing a live watch praty and reaction show starting 5 minutes before the race (so 1:55 pm ET) and then going on for as long as we need to afterwards:
Any Dartmouth alums on here? I know they used to run a downhll mile at the end of the season. How much downhll is it?
I am going to talk to weldon and encourage LetsRun to sponsor a downhill women's mile at the end of season. Get some cash. I really want a woman to break 4:00 so for the rest of eternity in every article, every wikipedia page, they'll have to write, "*** was the first female to break 4 for the mile. She did it on a downhill course at the 2025 LetsRun.com mile in ***."
If you look at the men's progression, it took approximately 20 years to go from 4:07 to sub-4, but just 10-12 years to go from 4:03 - 4:04. Interestingly enough, it only took 4 years after breaking 4 to drop another 5 seconds.
Therefore, if she does beat her previous time by 2-4 seconds, it can change the conversation.
This is very nice and thanks for providing it. However it is incomplete because it does not include much of the world where the 1500 was the primary distance, especially during the war where Hagg's 1500m times conversions put him closer to 4:00 (drawing from memory of doing the conversions decades ago I think he had gotten down to 4:01, and a dozen years to get down to 3:42.1 ~3:59.9 is trivial development.
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My 1500 PR is literally 3:49.04 and my mile is 4:07 mid, so I feel like I am pretty qualified to answer here. If I came through 1000 in 2:29, I think I could get to the 1209 in 3:01 and then would totally explode. Let’s say I was able to get everything out of myself even though it’s demotivating to feel like you are rigging the last lap of a race, I think I’d run a 67/8. Admittedly, I don’t have Faith’s mindset (or pacers) so who knows?
Great post. What do you think you would have run with eleven pacers breaking the wind for you? What if you had been offered $100,000 Dollars? How much faster could you have run? We all have to question, on some level, the notion that we really gave 100%. Could you have gone 1 second faster for a million Dollars? Maybe?
I think perfect pacing would be maybe a second. Don’t know what to say about the wind resistance stuff.
I don’t think $1 mil would have made any difference in motivation, but I think there are some internal mindset things, like trusting going with a move midrace or kicking from 500 out that distinguish champions like Faith from people like me.
My 1500 PR is literally 3:49.04 and my mile is 4:07 mid, so I feel like I am pretty qualified to answer here. If I came through 1000 in 2:29, I think I could get to the 1209 in 3:01 and then would totally explode. Let’s say I was able to get everything out of myself even though it’s demotivating to feel like you are rigging the last lap of a race, I think I’d run a 67/8. Admittedly, I don’t have Faith’s mindset (or pacers) so who knows?
“Literally” 3:49.04?
Yes, because that is “literally” the same time to the 100th as Faith’s PR/WR
Had anyone heard which lane she will run in? If you're going to make any significant drafting benefits, it would make sense to run in lane 4 with a perfect V formation as per breaking 2?
This is a natural question given our experiences in races. However if you look at the graphic the placement of the pacers ahead, assisted by the ones behind seems designed to get a flow of air that is superior, probably using wind tunnels. And running at someone's shoulder allows tighter placement work less risk of "getting out of step". It also allows Faith to get close drafting effects while providing her with greater visibility
I wonder how much they have played with a wind tunnel for the basic configuration and then adjusted it with trial and error that takes keeping the configuration in place and the losses when it gets out of sync. These factors might be important but most of the comments are about what changes are necessary to the pace and when she will too tired. Also there is a share of irrelevant comments.
My 1500 PR is literally 3:49.04 and my mile is 4:07 mid, so I feel like I am pretty qualified to answer here. If I came through 1000 in 2:29, I think I could get to the 1209 in 3:01 and then would totally explode. Let’s say I was able to get everything out of myself even though it’s demotivating to feel like you are rigging the last lap of a race, I think I’d run a 67/8. Admittedly, I don’t have Faith’s mindset (or pacers) so who knows?
I think you’re optimistic about that last lap. You’re suggesting you’d go through way ahead of pace at 3 laps and finish within 1.5s of your mile PR. I think your last 400 would go 34-38 for a 72.
Weather looks suboptimal. 27C and gusts over 20mph. I think they'll just use this as a sort of proof of concept and try again later in the summer.
I'm not against this sort of exhibition of what humans can potentially achieve. It's not what I love the sport, but it's an interesting goal for an athlete that has nothing else to achieve on her event. I wouldn't want to see Jakob doing this as he still has WRs to chase, but Kipyegon is already the GOAT, so what's left for her?
If you're not into it then simply don't watch or read about it, no one's forcing it on you. And it's not like this I taking opportunity from someone else or distracting from other performances at a DL or some other meet.
They have the option to post-pone it. I think they had like a 3 day window.
ALex Hutchinson said they want they are "hoping for wind speeds of less than about 7.5 miles per hour, humidity of less than 50 percent, and somewhere between 20 and 60 percent cloud cover."
Well Apple weather says it will be 7 mph winds at 8 pm. If they even waited a couple hours the wind would be even less. Humidity will be 62% and dew point 62.
I guess that dew point is higher than normal but it's only a mile and John Kellogg always repeats to me - Moist air is lighter and less dense than dry air.
Some of the greatest performances in track and field history have come right after major storms - Mexico City.
On NPR, Rodger Kram from CU Boulder this morning expressed concern about the wind. They discussed the possibility of pushing it back later in the evening or to Friday or Saturday, but noted the problem of getting fans excited and losing enthusiasm for the event if they change at the last minute.
He also suggested they could call it off after two laps if she’s not on ideal pace. Hadn’t thought of that damp squib of a possibility.
Lol. This turning into amateur hour. They've had the weather forecast for days. Push it back an hour or two and the wind isn't an issue. Postpone it untl tmw.
But le me be clear about one thing - you don't call it off after 2 laps.
If someone falls or the pacing is off on the first lap, sure stop and start again.
Zero percent chance she quits at 800. That honestly would be embarrassing. Now if you want to stop it at 2 laps and then re-do tmw, ok. But quitting at 800? Embarrassing.
Don't use Apple weather, it's notorious for being wildly inaccurate. Try either AccuWeather or BBC. You're looking at 11mph winds with 26mph gusts. It's hot, but they've got 90% cloud cover and 50% humidity. Those gusts are a killer
My 1500 PR is literally 3:49.04 and my mile is 4:07 mid, so I feel like I am pretty qualified to answer here. If I came through 1000 in 2:29, I think I could get to the 1209 in 3:01 and then would totally explode. Let’s say I was able to get everything out of myself even though it’s demotivating to feel like you are rigging the last lap of a race, I think I’d run a 67/8. Admittedly, I don’t have Faith’s mindset (or pacers) so who knows?
I think you’re optimistic about that last lap. You’re suggesting you’d go through way ahead of pace at 3 laps and finish within 1.5s of your mile PR. I think your last 400 would go 34-38 for a 72.
Well, I asked him the question and appreciate the answer, but I also wonder if he would "only" miss his best by 1.5 or 2 seconds (around 4:09) after holding sub 4:00 pace for so long.
You think that a 4:07.5 runner trails off to 4:13 or so, after holding sub 4:00 pace through about 1200 meters.
I can definitely see that happening in a lot of cases (and worse in a lot of cases).
I'll guess:
If she runs slower than the intended pace but benefits from the pacing, she will set a PB.
If she runs at the intended pace for 1200 meters, she will slow dramatically and NOT set a PB.
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I really want to be optimistic but I'm really having a hard time. She hasn't run the mile a lot because it's a weird distance but she's run the 1500m a lot. She's gone below 3:50 twice, and if she went 3:49 through the first 1500 she'd have to run basically a world record final hundred meters (plus). It just feels like asking for a lot, because those 3:49s would have been on perfect days too, and on any given day you could only feel 90%, or the weather could be slightly imperfect, etc.
Right starting point but doesn't consider all the factors that make this attempt different. Even the shoes and other factors seem to make 4:01 guys into 3:58 guys and pick other times in middle distances. You could look at the tenth best and 25th best and the 50th best and see what the benefits are. Unfortunately this is complicated because 2025 does not have a full season and it's missing the peak. Adjusting to those best for June 26th or from X weeks before the Championships. Also lady year people had planned for the Olympics set up training for that etc.
I think you’re optimistic about that last lap. You’re suggesting you’d go through way ahead of pace at 3 laps and finish within 1.5s of your mile PR. I think your last 400 would go 34-38 for a 72.
Well, I asked him the question and appreciate the answer, but I also wonder if he would "only" miss his best by 1.5 or 2 seconds (around 4:09) after holding sub 4:00 pace for so long.
You think that a 4:07.5 runner trails off to 4:13 or so, after holding sub 4:00 pace through about 1200 meters.
I can definitely see that happening in a lot of cases (and worse in a lot of cases).
I'll guess:
If she runs slower than the intended pace but benefits from the pacing, she will set a PB.
If she runs at the intended pace for 1200 meters, she will slow dramatically and NOT set a PB.
Actually, I’m just remembering a time when I was probably in slightly off PR shape (say 4:09), but I went out in 3:03 through 1209 and wound up running 4:13, so you’re probably right, though I might’ve been able to close 1-2 seconds faster with better grit.
Right starting point but doesn't consider all the factors that make this attempt different. Even the shoes and other factors seem to make 4:01 guys into 3:58 guys and pick other times in middle distances.
But this narrative suggests she hasn't been taking advantage of these things already? Today is not the first time she is running with wavelight or lacing on a "super" spike.
2021 was year that both wavelight and superspikes at the pro level became available and mainstream. Her 1500m PR prior to 2021 was 3.54.22. Starting 2021 her seasons bests are 3.51.07, 3.50.37, 3.49.11 and 3.49.04 (which btw, the clustering of these times and her age would suggest she is approaching her physiological ceiling).
So "all the factors" are really reduced to one - the drafting. Nike has done a good job propagating the footwear and apparel improvement myths, but they ultimately have a spike that is 30g lighter than what she has been previously wearing, and a race suit with aerodynamic nodes - the one issue being at 15mph (4min pace) the drag coefficient is barely differentiable to jogging at 5mph (because vs speed it's not a linear graph and you really don't start seeing it ramp up until 40-50 km/h for any object. With respect to the spike weight we know 30g = 0.3% improvement in v02 max efficiency/running economy - but over this distance her v02max isn't really a factor as she is going to have to be as close and just under her anaerobic threshold as possible.
The question is simply, is a pace bubble "protecting her" from wind resistance enough. Rodger Kram and the Nike sports science lab have convinced enough people in her team it is. Honestly, I really hope the wind completely dies and we have perfect conditions - the last thing we need is this to go a certain way and the first thing to come out of it is "well the weather wasn't good enough". Otherwise the next attempt should just be on the indoor runway of BU (probably should be anyway if they really wanted her to run under 4).