What is a particular runner has had issues getting caught allegedly cheating in the past based on Strava/GPS data (e.g., Letsrun thread: "Another marathon cheater, this time it’s a lady cutting courses and riding her bike for 2:45 marathons," dated November 3, 2018)?
What's the likelihood that person makes the same mistake again and has GPS data readily available? Alternatively, that person has past experience, and has an better understanding of how to better manipulate the data (say, for example, if you're running with a co-conspirator, handing off the watch and making sure you're co-conspirator is running at a similar heart rate/cadence, etc.).
I'm all for second, third, and fourth chances, as long as you do the time for committing the crime. However, the perception changes if you've been caught multiple times.