NCAA Predicted Women's Individual top 10

Was there any real precursor this year that had Orton winning? In retrospect she is in the right age group (23-24) and given the course layout her strong 5000 time clearly came into play the last km. The wildcard was health. But all predictions were a bit of a guess.

Ezrun wrote:

Stopwatcher wrote:

I will be paying attention when this gentleman speaks!

If I didn't understand physics and know that psychic stuff is nonsense, this guy could easily take all my money and critical thinking abilities!

I don't have many heroes in this world, until now.

astro wrote:

Was there any real precursor this year that had Orton winning? In retrospect she is in the right age group (23-24) and given the course layout her strong 5000 time clearly came into play the last km. The wildcard was health. But all predictions were a bit of a guess.

I don't think Orton winning should be surprising at all. If she was fully healthy in the spring, there's a reasonable chance that she would have won that race (she was the leader through 5K before faltering in the last kilometer). With the Florida State course being significantly easier than the Oklahoma State course was, I thought Orton probably should have been the pre-race favorite, though I certainly understand giving deference to Chelangat as the defending champ.

I kind of think the guy going on and on about Dudek last year, or starliper this year was a little more out there. I mean who knew with Orton, she missed two races and did win the other ones but look at who she beat and where they placed, and it wasn't exactly obvious that she was saving it up for Nationals.

bbg95 wrote:

astro wrote:

Was there any real precursor this year that had Orton winning? In retrospect she is in the right age group (23-24) and given the course layout her strong 5000 time clearly came into play the last km. The wildcard was health. But all predictions were a bit of a guess.

I don't think Orton winning should be surprising at all. If she was fully healthy in the spring, there's a reasonable chance that she would have won that race (she was the leader through 5K before faltering in the last kilometer). With the Florida State course being significantly easier than the Oklahoma State course was, I thought Orton probably should have been the pre-race favorite, though I certainly understand giving deference to Chelangat as the defending champ.

She only ran 2 races but won them both, and by all accounts she was healthy so I am not shocked, tho I only put her 3rd in the contest.

Stopwatcher wrote:

show me the money wrote:

Nice!

I will be paying attention when this gentleman speaks!

Why? Terrible pics

Chmiel was 6th (not 4th) and Tuohy was 15th (not 14th).

and NC State won by 38 (not 22)

Where to watch wrote:

and NC State won by 38 (not 22)

I don't know it seemed pretty impressive. To get Camille Touhy and Steelman all within one and two points of their exact place, especially when a lot of people were saying Steelman was going to be in the top 10... I didn't see anyone else lay down the top three runners of any team with that kind of accuracy...

show me the money wrote:

Where to watch wrote:

and NC State won by 38 (not 22)

I don't know it seemed pretty impressive. To get Camille Touhy and Steelman all within one and two points of their exact place, especially when a lot of people were saying Steelman was going to be in the top 10... I didn't see anyone else lay down the top three runners of any team with that kind of accuracy...

There was a team thread with place predictions....I missed on the NC State 4/5 as they ran incredible today. Just based on watching the results of all teams all year.

Even Context who had some very good predictions thought Orton was being overestimated. Like I said in retrospect it makes perfect sense that she won, but I fully get not predicting it.

Both Dudek and Starliper are navigating a very tricky age for female distance runners. Try to get through the maturation stage that seems to hit around 18-21 in decent health and see what happens. Hopefully Starliper gets healthy and we see her on the track soon, but we know what can happen if runners in that age group are in too much of a hurry.

It does however recall all the special pleading that went with that 2019 Foorlocker race. All the variables aside its the runners that produced high school results year after year that I was more confident in. Both Kelsey and Katelyn AAed in their first two years of eligibility. (Technically Katelyn AAed twice as a freshman eligible runner, which will likely never happen again). And nice to see Covert AA.

Stopwatcher wrote:

I kind of think the guy going on and on about Dudek last year, or starliper this year was a little more out there. I mean who knew with Orton, she missed two races and did win the other ones but look at who she beat and where they placed, and it wasn't exactly obvious that she was saving it up for Nationals.

Or what about those 3 hs girls who were going to break 930 for the 2 mile... that was realistic....

In an interview Coach Henes said that Katelyn fell around the mile mark. So she has to expend a lot of energy to get back to the front group, which you can see in the splits. Cost her any shot at the top ten but 15 was still in the expected range.

astro wrote:

In an interview Coach Henes said that Katelyn fell around the mile mark. So she has to expend a lot of energy to get back to the front group, which you can see in the splits. Cost her any shot at the top ten but 15 was still in the expected range.

so nervous about katelyn falling to the 47 spot, but she looked poised and just naturally worked her way to the front in just 1 km, that was so impressive .. climbed 30 spots

video below - 2:06 - coach henes said katelyn fell on the mile mark and praises her for not panicking and working her way back to the front group

show me the money wrote:

I don't know it seemed pretty impressive. To get Camille Touhy and Steelman all within one and two points of their exact place, especially when a lot of people were saying Steelman was going to be in the top 10... I didn't see anyone else lay down the top three runners of any team with that kind of accuracy...

that was impressive,.. it seemed like he perfectly predicted katelyn's spot + the fall .... coz katelyn would have ranked higher if she didnt fall

what happened to everyone's top 10 favorites grace forbes and sofia dudek?

nc state's fifth runner sam bush ranks higher than them

I think it happened approaching the 2000m mark. The race was moving fast but she kept her composure and worked her way back up although that cost energy. Someone commented on the other thread hat she seemed a bit subdued after the race and I imagine she was not overjoyed falling at nationals, but it happens and she kept it together.

astro wrote:

I think it happened approaching the 2000m mark. The race was moving fast but she kept her composure and worked her way back up although that cost energy. Someone commented on the other thread hat she seemed a bit subdued after the race and I imagine she was not overjoyed falling at nationals, but it happens and she kept it together.

I rewatched the race and you can see she is right with Chmiel, the camera goes to the drone, and then she is 30 spots back of her

One moment she is there and the next she was gone. And it happened in one of the dark areas so no one caught it. But you could tell by the splits and the change of position. It costs her a few places probably but overall still a good race and a team title.