NCAA Predicted Women's Individual top 10

I give Orton the benefit of the doubt as to being ready.

here is how I rank the top 45 runners, by tiers, with nominally 5 seconds between the tiers.

For example, I have Lauren Gregory in tier 2 which would be places 3-8

No doubt I will tweek it some after Friday - especially the Mountain Regional meet.

I only did team runners, but agree Grace Forbes could be in top 10 finishers. I don't see the NM runners getting into the top 20, but perhaps after Friday I will change my mind. I agree on Lauren Ryan - she had 1 great race at home, and two mediocre ones at ND (including Joe Piane)

BYU Whittni Orton 1

Alabama Mercy Chelangat 1

West Virginia Ceili McCabe 1

Arkansas Lauren Gregory 2

Colorado Abby Nichols 2

NC State Kelsey Chmiel 2

Oklahoma State Taylor Roe 2

Michigan State Jenna Magness 2

Northern Arizona Taryn O'Neill 2

Alabama Flomena Asekol 3

Alabama Amaris Tyynismaa 3

BYU Anna Camp 3

Colorado Emily Covert 3

Florida State Lauren Ryan 3

Iowa State Cailie Logue 3

Minnesota Bethany Hasz 3

NC State Katelyn Tuohy 3

Arkansas Krissy Gear 4

NC State Hannah Steelman 4

Oklahoma State Molly Born 4

Syracuse Amanda Vestri 4

Alabama Esther Gitahi 5

BYU Aubrey Frentheway 5

Furman Bethany Graham 5

Liberty Adelyn Ackley 5

Liberty Calli Doan 5

Michigan Ericka VanderLende 5

Minnesota Megan Hasz 5

Minnesota Abby Kohut-Jackson 5

New Mexico Stefanie Parsons 5

Portland Anna Pataki 5

Colorado India Johnson 6

Colorado Rachel McArthur 6

Georgia Tech Nicole Fegans 6

New Mexico Emma Heckel 6

New Mexico Amelia Mazza-Downie 6

New Mexico Gracelyn Larkin 6

North Carolina Brynn Brown 6

Northern Arizona Pipi Eitel 6

Northern Arizona Elise Stearns 6

Oklahoma State Kelsey Ramirez 6

Ole Miss Sintayehu Vissa 6

Ole Miss Anna Elkin 6

Oregon State Kaylee Mitchell 6

BYU Lexy Halladay 6

I think people are overestimating whitni Orton. Yeah obviously she's a really good runner but, since last may she hasn't run that well and I think she's going to be somewhere between 7 and 20.... also I think you're overestimating Callie Logue she's 125 last year and haven't seen any news that she's going to be top 10 Runner this year. Other than that I agree with your assessments

Also u have covert way too high, tuohy and Chmiel and vestri should be moved up a few spots each

Gregory, nichols, covert, and logue you have overestimated bigly... Orton a bit overestimated, and kameli bigly underestimated.... tuohy a bit underestimated.... a bigly fix is needed

Vestri hasn't run well at a nationals meet yet. Always seems to be there regular season but then a major drop off in championships. I expect her to be an all American this year (looks much stronger) but wouldn't consider her a lock for top 20.

ContextisKing wrote:

Gregory, nichols, covert, and logue you have overestimated bigly... Orton a bit overestimated, and kameli bigly underestimated.... tuohy a bit underestimated.... a bigly fix is needed

covert lacks experience on the national stage but I think is finally making a resurgence after a stellar end to her high school career. I don't think Nichols is overestimated, she won pre nats as well as PAC 12s with ease. Joyce Kameli is always solid so I will give you that, and Tuohy around the 8-10 range doesn't seem farfetched to me either.

Covert was 98 last year, she's improved but I'd be shocked if she cracks the top 20 and would probably Place her somewhere around 45 to 65. Anyway he has her way too high. Same with gregory and logue... maybe I'm wrong on nichols but not on most of the rest...

ContextisKing wrote:

Gregory, nichols, covert, and logue you have overestimated bigly... Orton a bit overestimated, and kameli bigly underestimated.... tuohy a bit underestimated.... a bigly fix is needed

Well, it is just my opinion, laid out bare. Other may differ. And of course, I may be wrong and no doubt I am on some of placements.

I have my doubts on Covert, but she has been right on Nichols heels all year, and Nichols I think is a proven runner. If you look at Pre Nats there was also O'Neal of NAU (another proven runner) in the top mix, and both Covert and Gregory were right there. Nichols time that day was also pretty fast at 19:46 . Perhaps the course was just exceptionally fast that day - I wish I knew.

I did look at how 25 runners from 4-5 teams performed relative to CO at preNats and NC St at ACC and almost all of them showed similar enough results for me to conclude Chmiel and Nichols were very close, as were Tuohy and Covert. The group averaged 62 seconds behind Nichols in the one race, and 66 seconds behind Chmiel in the other. Two individual exceptions were Lauren Ryan of Fl St who was very close to Nichols at pre Nats but beaten very badly by Chmiel at ACC, and Brynn Brown of UNC who did the opposite.

Lauren Gregory clearly had a bad race at SEC championship but I am assuming that was just one race as she was the teams 3rd runner that day after being the clear #1 all year.

As my list is team runners and I don't think Auburn or Rice teams will be there I did not include Forbes or Kimeli on my list, but yes both should finish place in the top 10 I would guess.

Rice looks like they made it so I will have to figure out a place for Forbes as a team runner

Chelengat has the numbers on her side for a solid win... chmiel, McCabe , roe, and Kimeli battling for the top 5..... anyone else look strong from conference to Regionals?

O'Neil is a top ten contender.

Not sure what wrote:

O'Neil is a top ten contender.

Yeah, top 10, but probably not past 7 or 8...

Update post Regionals - I dismissed a lot of Regional results as it seemed some were tactical races, and some were sort of going thru the motions. Again, Team runners only, broker into tiers nominally 5 seconds apart, though there is an argument the top two have their own tiers.

i am open to other opinions, but attacks are not needed

Alabama Mercy Chelangat hasn't really been tested

West Virginia Ceili McCabe easily outkicked whoever she raced

Arkansas Lauren Gregory I am still a believer

BYU Whittni Orton ditto

Colorado Abby Nichols

NC State Kelsey Chmiel strong finishes for someone without a lot of leg speed

Iowa State Cailie Logue

Northern Arizona Taryn O'Neill

Oklahoma State Taylor Roe

Arkansas Krissy Gear has got back into good form

Colorado Emily Covert perhaps a tad high

Michigan State Jenna Magness last 2 races not so good - but I still believe

Minnesota Bethany Hasz

NC State Katelyn Tuohy NC St top 2 look as good as anyones

Rice Grace Forbes Rice knocked out TX

Utah Emily Venters I assume she is ok after not running regional

Alabama Amaris Tyynismaa this is a bit of a guess

Alabama Flomena Asekol

BYU Anna Camp seems back in good form

BYU Aubrey Frentheway

Minnesota Megan Hasz

Minnesota Abby Kohut-Jackson

NC State Hannah Steelman

New Mexico Stefanie Parsons I moved up 2 of NM pack - tho there was no pack in regional

New Mexico Gracelyn Larkin

Ole Miss Sintayehu Vissa

Syracuse Amanda Vestri

Alabama Esther Gitahi

Colorado India Johnson

Florida State Lauren Ryan

Michigan State Lynsie Gram

NC State Alexandra Hays

New Mexico Emma Heckel

Notre Dame Maddy Denner not sure where she hid what she did at regional

Notre Dame Olivia Markezich ditto

Oklahoma State Gabby Hentemann

Oklahoma State Molly Born

Stanford Julia Heymach another guess - regional seemed too close to be fast

Utah Bella Williams

BYU Lexy Halladay

Colorado Rachel McArthur

Iowa State Ashley Tutt

NC State Samantha Bush has been quite consistent

U of Florida’s redshirt Freshman Parker Valby was 2nd in her Region, 4th at SECs and ran 10:10 for 3200 to break Betty Jo Springs 39 year old HS state record 2 years ago. She will be top 10 on a course she has run many times. FSU is the Florida HS state meet course

EastLake wrote:

U of Florida’s redshirt Freshman Parker Valby was 2nd in her Region, 4th at SECs and ran 10:10 for 3200 to break Betty Jo Springs 39 year old HS state record 2 years ago. She will be top 10 on a course she has run many times. FSU is the Florida HS state meet course

10:10 a year ago does not merit a top 10 at NCAA.

Chelengat will win by 5

Chmiel mccabe should be in top 5

Nichols won't be in top 10, maybe not 20

Covert won't be in top 25 maybe not 40 or even 50

Orton won't be in top 5 maybe not 10

NC state needs Steelman in top 40 and maybe top 25.,. otherwise NM might take it

EastLake wrote:

U of Florida’s redshirt Freshman Parker Valby was 2nd in her Region, 4th at SECs and ran 10:10 for 3200 to break Betty Jo Springs 39 year old HS state record 2 years ago. She will be top 10 on a course she has run many times. FSU is the Florida HS state meet course

Valby might crack the 25...

Personally, I am expecting Mercy and McCabe to be in a final sprint. Chmiel, Roe and Orton not far behind. Tuohy, Vestri, Steelman, Tyynismaa & Asekol to round out the top 10.

In my mind, Steelman is the only question-mark...she has seemed a little off this year (whether that is physical or mental), but hopefully having last week off will help her in the finals.

It would be nice to see Dudek challenge the leaders...if her fitness has caught up, she certainly could push them.

Gregory has the potential...but just hasn't shown it this year.

Will be interesting to see the build up during following 6 days!!

im quite concerned about nc state, they are my team but unfortunately their number 3 runner hannah steelman isnt as strong as last year (she finished 5th in the prev xc nationals)

its been only katelyn and kelsey who's been really tested this year, hannah has not ran much nor ran well (as to what is expected of her as a senior and as last year's 5th placer) their other seniors shaw and clairmonte has not ran well either