State, 5, 12 , 20, 35, 48
BYU 7, 14, 18, 32, 58
NM 22, 28, 32, 38, 46
All raw scores.... NC state in a nail biter!!!
State, 5, 12 , 20, 35, 48
BYU 7, 14, 18, 32, 58
NM 22, 28, 32, 38, 46
All raw scores.... NC state in a nail biter!!!
NC State - 115
BYU - 130
New Mexico - 190
baby blue wrote:
NC State - 115
BYU - 130
New Mexico - 190
Pretty similar how about more detail though
put your money where your mouth is wrote:
State, 5, 12 , 20, 35, 48
BYU 7, 14, 18, 32, 58
NM 22, 28, 32, 38, 46
All raw scores.... NC state in a nail biter!!!
I agree on paper very tight. I would guess (team scores only):
NC St 5, 12, 19, 48, 52 for 136 30 sec 1-5 - recently 30 at ACC
BYU 2, 14, 24, 47, 56 for 143 45 sec 1-5 recently 40 at WCC
CO 4, 13, 33, 37, 60 for 147 35 sec 1-5 recently 40 at Pac 12
NM 22, 32, 35, 37, 53 for 179 15 sec 1-5 recently 9 at Mntn West
Maybe Hays for NC St and Frentheway for BYU place a little higher. Maybe NM all place 5 higher.
Field looks pretty deep and course won't kill anyone unlike March.
NM won't have that much spread. They will have 5 from 25-35.
big bopper wrote:
NM won't have that much spread. They will have 5 from 25-35.
I went with my guess based largely on the Joe Piane and Nuttycombe results - in both meets their pack started about 15 seconds behind Tuohy, and was behind Steelman or where Steelman would have been. At Joe Piane and Nuttycombe, Bush of NC St was in the middle of the NM pack - and she was just their 5th runner at ACC championship. Also the CO St runner who was 8th at the Big Sky championship (right behind the NM pack) was 35th at Nuttycombe - just behind the NM pack. But, it is still a guess, and just my guess.
big bopper wrote:
NM won't have that much spread. They will have 5 from 25-35.
More competition at Nationals, I bet they have bigger spread, probably 25 to 45
ContextisKing wrote:
big bopper wrote:
NM won't have that much spread. They will have 5 from 25-35.
More competition at Nationals, I bet they have bigger spread, probably 25 to 45
fwiw here is how I rank the top 45 runners, by tiers, with nominally 5 seconds between the tiers.
For example, I have Lauren Gregory in tier 2 which would be places 3-8
No doubt I will tweek it some after Friday - especially the Mountain Regional meet.
BYU Whittni Orton 1
Alabama Mercy Chelangat 1
West Virginia Ceili McCabe 1
Arkansas Lauren Gregory 2
Colorado Abby Nichols 2
NC State Kelsey Chmiel 2
Oklahoma State Taylor Roe 2
Michigan State Jenna Magness 2
Northern Arizona Taryn O'Neill 2
Alabama Flomena Asekol 3
Alabama Amaris Tyynismaa 3
BYU Anna Camp 3
Colorado Emily Covert 3
Florida State Lauren Ryan 3
Iowa State Cailie Logue 3
Minnesota Bethany Hasz 3
NC State Katelyn Tuohy 3
Arkansas Krissy Gear 4
NC State Hannah Steelman 4
Oklahoma State Molly Born 4
Syracuse Amanda Vestri 4
Alabama Esther Gitahi 5
BYU Aubrey Frentheway 5
Furman Bethany Graham 5
Liberty Adelyn Ackley 5
Liberty Calli Doan 5
Michigan Ericka VanderLende 5
Minnesota Megan Hasz 5
Minnesota Abby Kohut-Jackson 5
New Mexico Stefanie Parsons 5
Portland Anna Pataki 5
Colorado India Johnson 6
Colorado Rachel McArthur 6
Georgia Tech Nicole Fegans 6
New Mexico Emma Heckel 6
New Mexico Amelia Mazza-Downie 6
New Mexico Gracelyn Larkin 6
North Carolina Brynn Brown 6
Northern Arizona Pipi Eitel 6
Northern Arizona Elise Stearns 6
Oklahoma State Kelsey Ramirez 6
Ole Miss Sintayehu Vissa 6
Ole Miss Anna Elkin 6
Oregon State Kaylee Mitchell 6
BYU Lexy Halladay 6
I feel validated by this thread. Before Conference Week I got scolded for putting Colorado and New Mexico in the same conversation as NC State and BYU. I'll add in CU to humor myself...
NC State: 7-8-14-30-54 (113)
BYU: 2-13-22-49-73 (159)
Colorado: 4-19-34-51-75 (183)
New Mexico: 15-40-50-55-63 (223)
No. They will have 7 together at 3k and 5 together at 5k.
I second that. I think they will have the best 4-5 duo of any team and that's why they will be so dangerous/such a wild card. Also wouldn't be suprised if one or two of the lobo ladies cracked the top 20.
It's hard to see CU in the top three, as their top two are not well and beyond NCSU's and BYU's low sticks and they don't seem so consistently packed together.
That said, I find it hard to bet against NCSU's favoritism and their top three; they NEVER seem to falter and have just looked amazing.
1. NSCU
2. New Mexico
3. BYU
4. CU
And it isn't really the 4-5 but the 1-7 being interchangeable. One woman may be off but their 6th will finish 35th and push other teams 5th runners.
Yeah, 100% agree, but I think it will likely play more of a role in the battle for second. It probably won't matter to NC State, unless one of their top 3 has on off day (they don't seem to have those lol) or some bad luck.
I have a feeling it will go NM, BYU, NC State. It is only a feeling because it would take one NC State woman having an off day.
My suggestion for all of you who are trying to predict this is to wait to see what happens in regionals. Results of nationals will be affected by effort expended in regionals.
I understand that the top 4 or 5 teams will obviously be at nationals but I just think many don't understand the connection between regional effort and national results. (Just a suggestion so hopefully there is no outrage from random posters about it.)
Given the depth in the Mountain Region I thought I would take a look at that on the Women's side. Way too close to call. I come up with
BYU 53
CO 54
NM 56
Based on
1
Let's try again
Given the depth in the Mountain Region I thought I would take a look at that on the Women's side. Way too close to call. I come up with
BYU 53
CO 54
NM 56
NAU 72
Based on
1 Orton BYU
2 Nichols CO
3 Oneal NAU
4 Camp BYU
5 Covert CO
6 Pray S UT
7 Frentheway BYU
8 Parsons NM
9 Heckel NM
10Larkin NM
11 Johnson CO
12 McArthur CO
13 Mazza-Downie NM
14 Eitel NAU
15 Stearns NAU
16 Halladay BYU
17 Goldstein NM
18 Venters UT
19 Musselmann BYU
20 Lee BYU
Feel free to exit this thread if you don't like predictions.
big bopper wrote:
Feel free to exit this thread if you don't like predictions.
*claps*
NC, NM, BYU, CO
NC state is 1st because I can see Chimel / Tuohy / Steelman in the top 15. Chimel can even challenge for the win.
NM has the better spread but I can't see any of them winning or in the top 10 , which will drag down the score.
BYU has Camp and Orton as top 10 contenders, but the rest of them are slighly weaker.
CO has Nicholas as their star, the rest are slightly weaker.