Tuohy will NOT win NXN

Covert has cut roughly 1:30 off her times for the same courses from two years ago.

Tuohy about 1:15. So Covert actually is the one improving the fastest.

Two years ago Tuohy was 5th at NXR NY and 13th at NXN which was 48 seconds from first.

Covert was 36th at NXR Heartland which was consistent with her other results.

MNrealist wrote:

Two years ago Tuohy was 5th at NXR NY and 13th at NXN which was 48 seconds from first.

Covert was 36th at NXR Heartland which was consistent with her other results.

If you know anything about Covert, you’d know she bombed at NXR Heartland in 2016. She averaged 1:00+ ahead of her teammate throughout the season. At NXR regional, they ran the same time. She crashed hard.

So in reality, no. She does not show ‘unheard of’ improvement; Tuohy has improved the same, or more, since 2016.

If you know anything about Covert, you’d know she bombed at NXR Heartland in 2016. She averaged 1:00+ ahead of her teammate throughout the season. At NXR regional, they ran the same time. She crashed hard.

So in reality, no. She does not show ‘unheard of’ improvement; Tuohy has improved the same, or more, since 2016.

I did not use the term "unheard of" and my rough estimate of a 1:30 improvement was based on all of her races at the same courses and not just Heartland. I just looked up the ratings to provide a more definitive answer.

Griak:

2016 19:19 - 130 rating

2017 18:13

2018 17:28 - 153 rating

MN section 6AA at Gale Woods Farm:

2016 18:51 - 121 rating

2017 17:40

2018 16:56 - 155 rating

MN state championship at St. Olaf College:

2016 18:35 - 129 rating

2017 17:30

2018 17:03 - 153 rating

Overall Covert has gone from 130 to 157.

While Touhy has gone from 151 to 177.

It will be interesting to see what ratings they get tomorrow.

I suspect Covert will bump up that 157.

Picking Covert to win IS biased. If you weren't from MN and/or didn't know her personally, you wouldn't pick her.

Being from MN, I am cheering for her to win, 100%!!! But, Tuohy is, undoubtedly, the favorite. Can't wait to see the race though, you never know for sure.

Don’t be surprised if you see a slightly different strategy from KT this year. She may have company at the mile which is unusual. But from there on in it will be business as usual.

SS and FM girls could have trouble cracking the top 10.

Presented without comment or opinion...

Five Milesplit editors made predictions. None of them have Covert in the top two.

Two have her 3rd, two have her 4th, and one has her out of the top five.

2nd place is split between Katelynne Hart and Kelsey Chmiel, with the 3-2 edge to Chmiel.

So Milesplit has it with either a NY 1-2, or a Katelyn(ne) 1-2. heh...

https://www.milesplit.com/articles/252691-milesplit-staff-predictions-for-nike-cross-nationals

What nobody knows is that Covert has only run hard enough to win this year. She is preparing for a 180 speed rating today. Tuohy will pull out at the mile limping off with a claimed hamstring issue. The fans on here will all claim that Tuohy would have easily won had it not been for injury.

Edina and Wayzata are working with Ping and Covert to sacrifice a true mid distance girl in the 1st mile. After Tuohy follows her in 2:19 at the 800, it will be all over.

Don't forget there are two Pings. Go Lauren!

(11th last year)

And don't sleep on Anna Fenske (10th last year)

MN girls bring it at Nationals.

Tuohy is running away from the field right now.

Ha, as expected.

Or not.

mntrackgeek wrote:

I'll admit to being quite MN biased, but hot take: Emily Covert wins NXN in a brutal final 800 meters to cap off an undefeated season. Though the at large individuals haven't been announced, Covert is the only runner who I can see beating Tuohy right now. And she has to be the favorite at Foot Locker too.

I’m sorry, Emily who???? ... oh would you look at that! Katelyn Tuohy not only dominated the field once again but she broke her own course record in the process! You are (and everyone else who betted against Touhy) an utter fool for thinking someone would actually take Tuohy down.

mntrackgeek wrote:

I'll admit to being quite MN biased, but hot take: Emily Covert wins NXN in a brutal final 800 meters to cap off an undefeated season. Though the at large individuals haven't been announced, Covert is the only runner who I can see beating Tuohy right now. And she has to be the favorite at Foot Locker too.

Dirtball wrote:

Tuohy is running away from the field right now.

She won by less than 20 seconds. She was going all out. She ran great, but so did 2nd place.

Didn't take long for people to come out and try to knock her down. Oh, she ONLY won by x seconds. She ONLY beat her time from last year by y seconds....

That was at the middle of the race.

reer wrote:

Didn't take long for people to come out and try to knock her down. Oh, she ONLY won by x seconds. She ONLY beat her time from last year by y seconds....

Learn to comprehend, moron.

Qualified Twice wrote:

reer wrote:

Didn't take long for people to come out and try to knock her down. Oh, she ONLY won by x seconds. She ONLY beat her time from last year by y seconds....

Learn to comprehend, moron.

I think you mean "moran".

reer wrote:

Qualified Twice wrote:

Learn to comprehend, moron.

I think you mean "moran".

And I would know. I'm just being an a$$, I got his point.