Official 2018 NXN Discussion Thread

I agree, but Easton Allred in the top 3 along with Sprout and Anderson on the boys side.

And it looks like yet another crap weather weekend for NXN

By most accounts Oosting should be right in the mix on the boys side. On the girls side assuming Tuohy is ok (which I think she is) she is clearly the favorite, but the next 6-8 spots look pretty close. Could be very tight team races on both sides.

Colorado sweep for the boys individual race. Sprout, Allred, Vancil

Is beating GO.

I can't see a big difference between GO and FM (boys) teams

FM will beat GO. GO will be racing without one of their critical runners who normally finishes first or second for the team

Add Matt Strangio on the list for boys' individuals platform runners. He won California Div 1, the 3rd overall time, when he had been sick since the Thursday before the meet. He finished 15th last year at NXN as a soph.

These are my predictions. One prediction is based on the runners from each team matching their PR at NXN, and the other is based on the runners having their average performance from the whole season.

The prediction for Central Valley will likely not hold true, because I heard that their #1 runner decided to skip NXN and do Footlocker instead.

Micro wrote:

The prediction for Central Valley will likely not hold true, because I heard that their #1 runner decided to skip NXN and do Footlocker instead.

That is dumb should run both.

taken her side wrote:

And it looks like yet another crap weather weekend for NXN

NXR SE was run in 40 degree downpour for hours. Portland is balmy compared to the north east. Maybe to kids from FL, TX or CA that's crap, but I'd bet the rest of the country would call Portland weather "another training day, but above freezing."

Micro wrote:

https://micro.runnerspace.com/profile.php?member_id=173603&do=photos&photo_id=940800

These are my predictions. One prediction is based on the runners from each team matching their PR at NXN, and the other is based on the runners having their average performance from the whole season.

This is really cool data. It'd be great to see a third "actual scores at nxn" bar next week, to see who landed where. It'll be an interesting test of coaches getting kids ready. To see who does the best job getting PRs out of their kids.

To be fair, are you really predicting by "kids run best times", or is this "just" data?

NXN 2018 wrote:

With the at-large bids about to be released, I thought I would start this thread :)

Boys Teams:

1. LV

2. FM

3. Dakota Ridge

Boys individuals:

1. Cole Sprout

2. Liam Anderson

3. Cole Hocker

Girls Teams:

1. Summit

2. Naperville North

3. Mountain Vista

Girls individuals:

1. Katelyn Tuohy

2. Emily Covert

3. Kelsey Chmiel

Tuohy is injured and just using the race as a workout. She hasn't actually raced a race in 2 years. It's all just one big workout. Even the 5000 on the track, just a workout fellas!

West Ranch from CA might be a danger for a top 5 finish. Their top 4 beat Great Oak’s top 4 at CA state and their #5 is improving every race. Their #3 also is a sophomore who hasn’t started running until the last track season so he could be improving as well. If they do well, you heard it here first!

Should probably add that this is on the boys side

Micro wrote:

https://micro.runnerspace.com/profile.php?member_id=173603&do=photos&photo_id=940800

These are my predictions. One prediction is based on the runners from each team matching their PR at NXN, and the other is based on the runners having their average performance from the whole season.

Cool little graph, but there are some definite flaws (Hersey for example). I don't know much about the team (Hersey), but just by looking at the results from regionals they seem like a definite top 10 team.

-They won their regional

-Top runner finished second overall

-Their number 2 through number 5 all finished within 11 seconds of each other. That's a pretty nasty pack

That sounds like a pretty solid squad. Obviously they have no shot at winning, but I think they'll be top 10 forsure.

Yes, there are many flaws in my calculations at this point. I too noticed that the Hersey values seemed most suspect, for the reasons you mentioned. I've been able to predict local races now for several years (check out my predictions for 3A and 4A State Championships for Washington State), but I haven't gathered enough data yet to apply the same level of rigor to the nation-wide calculations. I'm a bit premature in releasing this, but I threw caution to the wind and thought I'd give it a shot anyway. It takes a lot of time to do these types of calculations, but I'd like to partner with Dyestat or Athletic.net to make the calculations available to the world throughout the season. This will require the services of a computer programmer to harvest the data from Athletic.net so that I can run the calculations.

Once the calculations are done, runners can compare their performances across the nation without many of the drawbacks of comparing raw times.

There were many calculations involved in determining each runner's best performance. I haven't included my opinion in any of the calculations, but I know that I've likely made many mistakes, especially on teams outside of Washington. With more data, I'll refine the calculations to be more accurate. Then, the rankings (based on fact, not opinion) will help all people to visualize how they really compare with their team(s) of interest.

So many variables impact running performance, and there are some variables that I haven't solved yet.