Wow: G Dibaba has entered Doha DL women's 800 where she'll clash with Semenya, Niyonsaba and Wambui

Your numbers are wrong. Dibaba can run a 49.5 400m.

OK, your great prediction which you did (I don't want to check if true) 2 years before it finally (according to you) happened was what? Exactly: wrong. I should have mentioned it before, but you stated your "fact" so securely that I not even thought about it. For sure Elvan Abeylegesse never was close to breaking 30 minutes for 10000m. I slowly get an impression what 100% means for you.

I wouldn't read too much into these predictions. And, you write: "if she maintains her 3:50 ability". She is far from this at the moment. But, much more important for me, Genzebe Dibaba just is a "miler". Ayana has destroyed her over 5000m, and 14:15.41 really is weak compared to 3:50.07.

If she improves to 13:50? Well, 25 seconds over 5000m in WR territory should be an easy task. I really would like to see her over 10000m, but I think she has much better chances to excel over 800m. Not really a chance for the WR, but around 1:55.

My statement was made when Wag was the only sub 30 minute 10000m. Two years before Tirunesh ever ran a 10000m and when Evan pub was only 32 low.

Funny earlier this year Genzebe was quoted as wanting to do the 5000m÷10000m double at 2017 Worlds.

To the sub 50 for 400m for Dibaba, which was discussed in this thread: I really don't know if this was meant to be serious. This really would be strange in a running forum (OK, it's letsrun), but if so: why not discussing the chances for Dibaba for breaking FloJo's 10.49, or Kostadinova's 2.09 or even Gabriele Reinsch's 76.80m in the discus? If Dibaba learns how to swim, Katie Ledecky should be afraid if her WRs will survive for a while.

said88 wrote:

I wouldn't read too much into these predictions. And, you write: "if she maintains her 3:50 ability". She is far from this at the moment. But, much more important for me, Genzebe Dibaba just is a "miler". Ayana has destroyed her over 5000m, and 14:15.41 really is weak compared to 3:50.07.

If she improves to 13:50? Well, 25 seconds over 5000m in WR territory should be an easy task. I really would like to see her over 10000m, but I think she has much better chances to excel over 800m. Not really a chance for the WR, but around 1:55.

They aren't predictions. They are calculations. Because they are calculations, you should read much into them.

Ayana is irrelevant to this discussion. Dibaba ran a 14:15. However, analyzing her lap times shows that she was close to 14:00 shape that day.

14:00 to 13:50 is not 25 seconds. It is 10 seconds. I didn't say it was an easy task. But a 10 second improvement over 5000m has been done by other runners at her level, no?

Dibaba has run her 14:15 two weeks before she did her close to unbelievable 3:50.07; she has had the best pacemaker you could think (Ayana) until the last lap, didn't lead a single meter. Yes, the Kilometers were not perfectly distributed (someting like: 2:55; 2:45; 2:57; 2:52; 2:47). It was a great race from her, probably close to her potential at the time. Maybe a few seconds yes, but 15 seconds?!? Yeah. At the moment she is far from this 3:50 form and concentrating on her 800m debut, yet you are going with 14:00! I don't know what are her plans for the 5000m at the Moment, but I'm sure Sub 14:30 is impossible.

And because the times you have listed are "calculations" they are as true as any mathematical statement, correct? No, I don't read too much into them, also I "should" in your opinion.

Jap wrote:

EPOpia wrote:

Yeah, you're totally right. Those viles filled with EPO plus both used and unused syringes found in her coach's (Jama Aden) hotel room in Spain during his arrest were most assuredly not used on any of his athletes like Dibaba, Souleiman or Makhloufi.

Those viles didn't have EPO and didn't belong to him, shthead, that's why he was never charged. Also, Genzebe has been isotope tested more than any athlete in history since that BS sting. You lose, dumbahss

said88 wrote:

Dibaba has run her 14:15 two weeks before she did her close to unbelievable 3:50.07; she has had the best pacemaker you could think (Ayana) until the last lap, didn't lead a single meter. Yes, the Kilometers were not perfectly distributed (someting like: 2:55; 2:45; 2:57; 2:52; 2:47). It was a great race from her, probably close to her potential at the time. Maybe a few seconds yes, but 15 seconds?!? Yeah. At the moment she is far from this 3:50 form and concentrating on her 800m debut, yet you are going with 14:00! I don't know what are her plans for the 5000m at the Moment, but I'm sure Sub 14:30 is impossible.

And because the times you have listed are "calculations" they are as true as any mathematical statement, correct? No, I don't read too much into them, also I "should" in your opinion.

The predicted times from that calculator are actually ok, the issue is the 13:50 number entered. I don't understand why calculo and now stats gangsta do this. Just enter realistic figures!

400 0:54.28

800 1:55.43

1000 2:27.48

1500 3:50.0

1-mile 4:08.35

3000 8:10.35

2-mile 8:49.30

5000 14:15.0

10000 30:13.72

Those numbers look right to me.

Right for WHO? Any runner who ist capable of 3:50 and 14:15 is capable to run 30:13? This just can't be true.

Dibaba has tremendous speed and just could manage to run with this an also great 5000m (but still really far from her 1500m level which she had). But 5000m just already is too long for her and in the 10000m she would suffer badly. Still great compared to most of her competitors but very weak for her own unique level over the middle distances.

Can't wait to see her over 800m.

said88 wrote:

Stats fan wrote:

The predicted times from that calculator are actually ok, the issue is the 13:50 number entered. I don't understand why calculo and now stats gangsta do this. Just enter realistic figures!

400 0:54.28

800 1:55.43

1000 2:27.48

1500 3:50.0

1-mile 4:08.35

3000 8:10.35

2-mile 8:49.30

5000 14:15.0

10000 30:13.72

Those numbers look right to me.

Right for WHO? Any runner who ist capable of 3:50 and 14:15 is capable to run 30:13? This just can't be true.

Dibaba has tremendous speed and just could manage to run with this an also great 5000m (but still really far from her 1500m level which she had). But 5000m just already is too long for her and in the 10000m she would suffer badly. Still great compared to most of her competitors but very weak for her own unique level over the middle distances.

Can't wait to see her over 800m.

They look right for Dibaba from 400 to 5k. Not sure about the 10k.

Stats fan wrote:

The predicted times from that calculator are actually ok, the issue is the 13:50 number entered. I don't understand why calculo and now stats gangsta do this. Just enter realistic figures!

I don't understand what you don't understand. Maybe I was not being very clear so I will explain again. I used realistic figures to show what she was capable of running in 2015 or 2016. Those realistic figures were 3:50 and 14:00.

Next, someone was wondering if she could run sub-29 for 10000m. So I found the 5000m time necessary for her to be able to run sub-29 (while maintaining her 3:50 ability). That 5000m turned out to be about 13:50.

I'm not sure why you call these times unrealistic. Do you really think a 10 second increase in 5000m fitness is unrealistic?

said88 wrote:

Dibaba has run her 14:15 two weeks before she did her close to unbelievable 3:50.07; she has had the best pacemaker you could think (Ayana) until the last lap, didn't lead a single meter. Yes, the Kilometers were not perfectly distributed (someting like: 2:55; 2:45; 2:57; 2:52; 2:47). It was a great race from her, probably close to her potential at the time. Maybe a few seconds yes, but 15 seconds?!? Yeah. At the moment she is far from this 3:50 form and concentrating on her 800m debut, yet you are going with 14:00! I don't know what are her plans for the 5000m at the Moment, but I'm sure Sub 14:30 is impossible.

And because the times you have listed are "calculations" they are as true as any mathematical statement, correct? No, I don't read too much into them, also I "should" in your opinion.

Your logic is flawed. If the pace was not perfectly distributed, then Ayana was clearly not the best pacemaker she could have had. The pace varied from 4:00 pace to 4:40 pace. That is horrible pacing. That is worth more than just a few seconds. The calculator shows this pacing distribution is worth about 15 seconds.

I'm not talking about her current ability. I am talking about her ability 1-2 years ago when she ran 3:50 and 14:15. I'm not talking about her shape today. I do not know what her shape is today.

Yes, the calculations are as true as any other mathematical statement because... the calculations are math. They are not based on probability or statistics. They are not predictions.

said88 wrote:

Right for WHO? Any runner who ist capable of 3:50 and 14:15 is capable to run 30:13? This just can't be true.

Dibaba has tremendous speed and just could manage to run with this an also great 5000m (but still really far from her 1500m level which she had). But 5000m just already is too long for her and in the 10000m she would suffer badly. Still great compared to most of her competitors but very weak for her own unique level over the middle distances.

Right for everyone running those times. Why do you think that can't be true? If all of the other times between runners are equal, why wouldn't a 3rd time also be identical?

The 5000m is NOT too long for her. She had horrible pacing in her 14:15. From the lap times I saw, her pace ranged from about 4:00 to about 4:40. That is horrible pacing.

I agree that she wouldn't be quite as competitive in the 10000m based on last year's fitness. Her fitness is almost a minute behind Ayana's Olympic 10000m performance.

stats.gangsta_the_real_1 wrote:

Stats fan wrote:

The predicted times from that calculator are actually ok, the issue is the 13:50 number entered. I don't understand why calculo and now stats gangsta do this. Just enter realistic figures!

I don't understand what you don't understand. Maybe I was not being very clear so I will explain again. I used realistic figures to show what she was capable of running in 2015 or 2016. Those realistic figures were 3:50 and 14:00.

Next, someone was wondering if she could run sub-29 for 10000m. So I found the 5000m time necessary for her to be able to run sub-29 (while maintaining her 3:50 ability). That 5000m turned out to be about 13:50.

I'm not sure why you call these times unrealistic. Do you really think a 10 second increase in 5000m fitness is unrealistic?

I see.

13:50 is only 10 seconds quicker than 14:00, correct. However it is 25 seconds quicker than what she actually ran.

Whilst I accept your premise that the pacing was not optimal in that 14:15, I don't agree with the notion that the performance was worth 15 seconds less than the finishing time. Perhaps 7s at most.

Said88

Elvan ran 29;:56 at the Olympics on August 15, 2008. So I guess you can't read or not very knowledgeable in track history.

Vipam wrote:

Said88

Elvan ran 29;:56 at the Olympics on August 15, 2008. So I guess you can't read or not very knowledgeable in track history.

I can read and I'm definitely very knowledgeable in track history. But in this one I was very stupid, and I admit to this. I was more concentrating in the Snooker final in Sheffield - but still I should not have written such nonsense, sorry.

But when someone is writing such a nonsens which you did ("I'm 100% sure they will run under 29 minutes...") then sometimes it's little bit difficult for me not to overreact. But still - my bad.

A woman running sub 29 minutes for 10k, proof again that the drug testing is not working.

I predict a 1:58 flat or little under 1:58 for Dibaba. You heard it from me first!