Tokyo Olympics - Not looking good / "Stop the fear porn" says Rojo

a regular guy wrote:

No they cant delay. You have no clue on how Olympics work to make such a naive claim. Contracts for the Village use, contracts for the use of the Venues, employees of the organising committee who will be leaving in July as the Games are finished, many sports with events already scheduled on those dates, etc etc.

The IOC announced almost exactly a year ago today that the Games would be postponed until this year.

So what you're claiming makes absolutely no sense. If they postponed at this time last year, they can postpone two more months now.

Taro wrote:

a regular guy wrote:

No they cant delay. You have no clue on how Olympics work to make such a naive claim. Contracts for the Village use, contracts for the use of the Venues, employees of the organising committee who will be leaving in July as the Games are finished, many sports with events already scheduled on those dates, etc etc.

The IOC announced almost exactly a year ago today that the Games would be postponed until this year.

So what you're claiming makes absolutely no sense. If they postponed at this time last year, they can postpone two more months now.

No. False. It took them an year to re-plan the event and renotiate all the contracts, some of which are still issues (the Olympic Village for instance), as well as to hire people to deliver the event and substitute those who left last year. There is no way this could be delayed for two more months. The show you watch on TV does not happen by magic.

a regular guy wrote:

No. False. It took them an year to re-plan the event and renotiate all the contracts, some of which are still issues (the Olympic Village for instance), as well as to hire people to deliver the event and substitute those who left last year.

Specifically what contracts did they have to renegotiate? The Japanese media report on every aspect of the Games in excruciating detail, and I've seen no reporting in the Japanese media on any of the supposed problems you mentioned (I live in Japan).

To have any credibility, you'll need to document these contract problems with some credible links.

But if postponing the Games by another 60 days really isn't possible because of contracts, they'll have to be canceled, as most Japanese and virtually all Japanese medical experts are demanding.

After all, they're called games for a reason.

with all due respect, the "regular guy" is right. there is no way the Olympics could be postponed for another two months, or moved to the US as some have suggested (I am not sure that is a serious suggestion). it is not possible for a number of reasons. 1. Olympic Village - the apartments were sold to the Japanese public. They were expected to move in 2020. These people, they own the apartments. It is a very complicated negotiation to keep them out of the apartments they have purchased. You don't move that for another two months. 2. There are contracts related to the use of the venues. Some are private venues. Some are public venues. Others are public/private. Think if you are the owner of a certain venue, that has been approved by the International Federation, according to all the demanding standards to organise OG. Then you want to extend the contract for another two months. Right, but I am the owner of the venue, and I have signed other contracts of use after the Olympics is finished. I can't just cancel all my contracts because you need to postpone your event for another two months. Sorry, I need my venue in October. You need to honour your contract to use my venue in July and leave it afterwards. Oh, you need to postpone your event? Great, go find another venue. Good luck on having it changed, approved, communicated and with operations planned for all the stakeholders involved in two months. 3. People. Staffing. Lots of staffing required to organise and operate the Games are International. Full time employees of the organising committee in Japan. Some of them left in 2020, but the situation was more or less controlled - the event was postponed for a year. There was time to renegotiate contracts, or hire new employees. Postponing for another two months? Forget it! These individuals will leave Japan. Without them you simply don't operate the Games. 4. You also don't deliver the Games without volunteers. Really, you don't. Have you been to the Olympics before? There are 50,000 of them. Many are International individuals since language is a key factor. Especially in Japan. How do you expect to get language-skilled volunteers available for your event for nearly 30 days on such a short notice - "sorry, you had committed to volunteer for us in July, surprise, we now need you in October!!". It becomes a huge operational problem. (yes, 17 days of competition, but everyone arrives a week or two before and leave up to a week after competition is finished). These examples do not even scratch the surface of all the reasons for why it is, simply put, impossible to postpone the Olympics for two months.

Taro wrote:

a regular guy wrote:

No. False. It took them an year to re-plan the event and renotiate all the contracts, some of which are still issues (the Olympic Village for instance), as well as to hire people to deliver the event and substitute those who left last year.

Specifically what contracts did they have to renegotiate? The Japanese media report on every aspect of the Games in excruciating detail, and I've seen no reporting in the Japanese media on any of the supposed problems you mentioned (I live in Japan).

To have any credibility, you'll need to document these contract problems with some credible links.

But if postponing the Games by another 60 days really isn't possible because of contracts, they'll have to be canceled, as most Japanese and virtually all Japanese medical experts are demanding.

After all, they're called games for a reason.

It's misleading for LRC to state:

"Japan's COVID Rate Is Currently 50% Less Than the Rate in the US"

without also stating:

Japan's COVID Vaccination Rate of 5.3% Is Currently 87% Less Than the Rate in the US of 40.4%

(Google "Japan vaccination rate" and "united states vaccination rate")

Rojo- Since you cited the graph showing death rate differences between US and Japan, could you comment on the fact that since early April, Japan’s death rate has increased nearly 500% and does not show significant signs of slowing?

To remind you, you posted that data here to make it easy to find:

https://www.letsrun.com/news/2021/05/stop-the-fear-porn-the-olympics-should-go-on-japans-covid-rate-is-currently-50-less-than-the-rate-in-the-us/

Taro wrote:

a regular guy wrote:

No they cant delay. You have no clue on how Olympics work to make such a naive claim. Contracts for the Village use, contracts for the use of the Venues, employees of the organising committee who will be leaving in July as the Games are finished, many sports with events already scheduled on those dates, etc etc.

The IOC announced almost exactly a year ago today that the Games would be postponed until this year.

So what you're claiming makes absolutely no sense. If they postponed at this time last year, they can postpone two more months now.

You and I both know if they postpone the olympics until October people will still be screaming “it’s too soon!”

olympic insider wrote:

with all due respect, the "regular guy" is right.

So you're saying that NBC's insistence on holding the Games in mid-summer has nothing to do with any of this? That's implausible, to say the least.

Regardless, even if all of what you say is true -- and I'm skeptical, to say the least, about most of it, especially the supposed difficulty of renegotiating apartment move-in dates by 60 days -- then the IOC is simply incapable of holding the Games under the such dire circumstances. So be it. Cancel them.

LIfe/death vs. profit and possibly an inspirational against-all-odds story? No contest.

energeticlotuseater wrote:

You and I both know if they postpone the olympics until October people will still be screaming “it’s too soon!”

Certainly not the medical experts, if enough people were vaccinated. In that case, any screamers really wouldn't have an argument, would they?

The Japanese PM says 1 million people/day can be vaccinated.

If that's true, another 60 days would mean another 60 million vaccinated, which is just less than 50% of the population of Japan. So nearly everyone would be vaccinated by then.

Taro wrote:

energeticlotuseater wrote:

You and I both know if they postpone the olympics until October people will still be screaming “it’s too soon!”

Certainly not the medical experts, if enough people were vaccinated. In that case, any screamers really wouldn't have an argument, would they?

The Japanese PM says 1 million people/day can be vaccinated.

If that's true, another 60 days would mean another 60 million vaccinated, which is just less than 50% of the population of Japan. So nearly everyone would be vaccinated by then.

We have about 50% of American adults vaxxed and there are still a substantial amount of people arguing against gatherings & events due to variants or for the children (since many aren’t vaccinated yet).

olympic insider wrote:

there is no way the Olympics could be postponed for another two months . . .

it is not possible for a number of reasons . .

And another thing: When the IOC announced the one-year postponement in late May of 2020, neither it nor anyone else knew when vaccines would be available.

Most initial estimates said it would take around 18 months, which would have meant the earliest vaccines would have been available would have been around September 2021.

So you'd think some flexibility would have been built into the renegotiated contracts to allow for that uncertainty, no?

As it turns out, of course, molecular biologists are much more competent than politicians and bureaucrats , so vaccines became available much earlier than expected. Given that good fortune, the IOC now needs to do its part and adapt to the circumstances.

Vaccination rates have picked up in Japan in the last few weeks. They're now doing over 400k per day and that rate is increasing.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

The Olympics will happen in some capacity. There will be plenty of sensationalist media in the meantime.

Hardloper wrote:

The Olympics will happen in some capacity. There will be plenty of sensationalist media in the meantime.

There's nothing sensationalistic about reporting the fact that parts of Japan are currently overwhelmed by covid -- with a major international event scheduled to start in two months.

Nor is it sensationalistic to report that most Japanese want the Games canceled or postponed because they would be the ones at risk of illness and death. The opinions of those who would just sit at home and be entertained are irrelevant.

energeticlotuseater wrote:

We have about 50% of American adults vaxxed and there are still a substantial amount of people arguing against gatherings & events due to variants or for the children (since many aren’t vaccinated yet).

If Japan can vaccinate 1 million people/day, as the PM claims, then around 120 million will have been vaccinated at least once by early October. That's the entire population of Japan above the age of 12.

That would largely prevent new variants from developing, and I have no doubt that the Japanese medical experts would consider that adequate protection.

Concerns over variants etc are real. Conduct the Olympics if it can be done safely.

New variant just discovered in Vietnam. Japanese medical officials are already talking about the possibility of an "Olympic variant" if the Games are held. Predictions about the next variant and where it will be found?

Announced today that venues will have up to 50% spectator capacity, wearing masks and encouraged to clap, not shout. The atmosphere should be better than we expected.

gregmacd wrote:

It's misleading for LRC to state:

"Japan's COVID Rate Is Currently 50% Less Than the Rate in the US"

without also stating:

Japan's COVID Vaccination Rate of 5.3% Is Currently 87% Less Than the Rate in the US of 40.4%

(Google "Japan vaccination rate" and "united states vaccination rate")

F*cking Japanese anti vaxxers, bunch of Trump loving racists! Take your freedom somewhere else and get the jab! TRUST THE SCIENCE!!!!