My point still stands. Oliver did well in closing the gap by 9 secs on a relatively more easier course. Oliver is young and has more opportunity to grow and he still needs to get 20 secs faster on the Woodward course from his 16:10 time from Clovis invite. Running anything over 16:00 at state kills a teams chance to make it to NXN especially since SC is tightening the screws and honing in. Oakdale will be difficult to handle in a more condensed field. If Dana wants to perform well at NXN they need to keep their 1-5 gap under 50 secs.
Couple other notes:
-Evan slightly underperformed at OC. He was about 10 secs slower.
-You can definitely see the impact the previous head coach of Dana, Coach Butler has had on San Clemente. When he was coaching at Dana, his teams would not perform to expectation during September but once OC champs came around, Dana would start clicking and really start proving their preseason rankings. Luckily Coach Dunn is back ant Dana and you’re starting to see the same upward trajectory that San Clemente is showing, that Dana also known for. Dana is the blueprint.
San Clemente's 5th last year was 16:02 at State. Seemed to work out okay for them.
If Dana has a sub 50 second scoring gap, they aren't going to qualify for NXN, they are going to win NXN.
Region and their individual runner's speed ratings boys - California Region - 1,3,4,9,17,22,47,62,67,70,72,85,94,100 Southwest Region - 6,13,32,69,71,75,77,78,80, Northwest Region - 15,58,66,89, Southeast Region - 7,10,11,18,...
My point still stands. Oliver did well in closing the gap by 9 secs on a relatively more easier course. Oliver is young and has more opportunity to grow and he still needs to get 20 secs faster on the Woodward course from his 16:10 time from Clovis invite. Running anything over 16:00 at state kills a teams chance to make it to NXN especially since SC is tightening the screws and honing in. Oakdale will be difficult to handle in a more condensed field. If Dana wants to perform well at NXN they need to keep their 1-5 gap under 50 secs.
Couple other notes:
-Evan slightly underperformed at OC. He was about 10 secs slower.
-You can definitely see the impact the previous head coach of Dana, Coach Butler has had on San Clemente. When he was coaching at Dana, his teams would not perform to expectation during September but once OC champs came around, Dana would start clicking and really start proving their preseason rankings. Luckily Coach Dunn is back ant Dana and you’re starting to see the same upward trajectory that San Clemente is showing, that Dana also known for. Dana is the blueprint.
San Clemente's 5th last year was 16:02 at State. Seemed to work out okay for them.
If Dana has a sub 50 second scoring gap, they aren't going to qualify for NXN, they are going to win NXN.
SC got in as an at large so if anything you reinforced my point. If you wanna make it to NXN as an auto, you need your fifth runner under 16:00. Why take the risk of hoping for an at large berth. Every year is different and California doesn’t always get a 3rd let alone a 4th at large bid. If Dana wants to go to NXN they will need their fifth under 16:00. They may get an at large if the get 3rd but then again why risk it.
San Clemente's 5th last year was 16:02 at State. Seemed to work out okay for them.
If Dana has a sub 50 second scoring gap, they aren't going to qualify for NXN, they are going to win NXN.
SC got in as an at large so if anything you reinforced my point. If you wanna make it to NXN as an auto, you need your fifth runner under 16:00. Why take the risk of hoping for an at large berth. Every year is different and California doesn’t always get a 3rd let alone a 4th at large bid. If Dana wants to go to NXN they will need their fifth under 16:00. They may get an at large if the get 3rd but then again why risk it.
Okay, well then you’ll have to excuse me for misinterpreting your point (though perhaps from your phrasing you can understand why). I agree a 5th man slower than 16 minutes is not ideal, but as San Clemente showed last year (and other teams in the past as well), it’s certainly not a death knell for either qualifying for NXN or doing well there.
I still think your point about a 50 second spread is a little bonkers. Do you understand how good Evan Noonan is?
SC got in as an at large so if anything you reinforced my point. If you wanna make it to NXN as an auto, you need your fifth runner under 16:00. Why take the risk of hoping for an at large berth. Every year is different and California doesn’t always get a 3rd let alone a 4th at large bid. If Dana wants to go to NXN they will need their fifth under 16:00. They may get an at large if the get 3rd but then again why risk it.
Okay, well then you’ll have to excuse me for misinterpreting your point (though perhaps from your phrasing you can understand why). I agree a 5th man slower than 16 minutes is not ideal, but as San Clemente showed last year (and other teams in the past as well), it’s certainly not a death knell for either qualifying for NXN or doing well there.
I still think your point about a 50 second spread is a little bonkers. Do you understand how good Evan Noonan is?
Not really. My phrasing was pretty straight forward. Maybe you just lack reading comprehension.
Yes I understand how good Evan is and my point is that I want Dana to be top four at NXN.
Also I never said anything about doing well at NXN. I stated to get to NXN you need a sub 16:00 fifth man. There’s a world of difference between 16:02 and 16:10 at state. For ever second over 16:00 at state, it’s 5-10 places per second. You can’t do well at NXN if you don’t even qualify.
MileSplits official Varsity Results formatted results for the 2023 Front Runner Athletics Chattanooga Area Championship, hosted by Baylor School in Chattanooga TN.
In 2019, they gave 3 extra individual at-larges to the northeast. southwest,northwest,california got none and significantly outperformed the northeast region. so hopefully the committee will look for some individuals in the west this year
Rocky Mountain beats Boise at districts on both genders, the girls by 2 points, and the guys pretty comfortably at 33 points.
I don't think the Boise guys will be a serious threat in the NW, and now the Rocky girls should be considered up there with Boise, Jesuit, Lincoln, and some other teams.
Also I never said anything about doing well at NXN. I stated to get to NXN you need a sub 16:00 fifth man. There’s a world of difference between 16:02 and 16:10 at state. For ever second over 16:00 at state, it’s 5-10 places per second. You can’t do well at NXN if you don’t even qualify.
Correct. And when I pointed to a very recent example that showed your statement to be inaccurate, you told me I didn't know how to read.
I actually agree with you. Dana does need their fifth man to improve, but that could be said of every cross country team in America.
I'm just perplexed by your somewhat bizarre moving goalposts. (Is it sub 16? Or sub 15:50? Or sub 50 second compression?)
Also I never said anything about doing well at NXN. I stated to get to NXN you need a sub 16:00 fifth man. There’s a world of difference between 16:02 and 16:10 at state. For ever second over 16:00 at state, it’s 5-10 places per second. You can’t do well at NXN if you don’t even qualify.
Correct. And when I pointed to a very recent example that showed your statement to be inaccurate, you told me I didn't know how to read.
I actually agree with you. Dana does need their fifth man to improve, but that could be said of every cross country team in America.
I'm just perplexed by your somewhat bizarre moving goalposts. (Is it sub 16? Or sub 15:50? Or sub 50 second compression?)
Pick a story and stick to it, dude.
You’re compounding my points my guy. It’s simple:
Oliver needs to run 20 secs faster which in turn would mean 15:50ish on the Woodward course. Thus 15:50 definitely aligns with “under 16:00 mins to qualify at NXN.” That would put the team gap around 50 secs since I doubt that Evan runners faster than his Clovis time without competition. I’d put him at 14:50-14:55 at state. Dun Duh Dun.
