I think people are underestimating Kessler's chances at a medal. In February he ran the fourth fastest all time indoor mile. He is probably more fit now than he was then. Most importantly, a 2- or 3-second personal best during the peak of an age 21 season would not be unusual. His tactics have been sharp almost all season, he's become an expert at joining frontrunners, and his closing speed has improved. I wouldn't bet on a medal, necessarily, but I wouldn't count him out either.
I think people are underestimating Kessler's chances at a medal. In February he ran the fourth fastest all time indoor mile. He is probably more fit now than he was then. Most importantly, a 2- or 3-second personal best during the peak of an age 21 season would not be unusual. His tactics have been sharp almost all season, he's become an expert at joining frontrunners, and his closing speed has improved. I wouldn't bet on a medal, necessarily, but I wouldn't count him out either.
I don't know if he's being counted out but the facts are that Jakob, Kerr, Nuguse, Hocker, Cheruiyot, and Komen all have a stronger argument for a medal if the race plays out roughly according to expectations. Kessler is a fantastic runner and will be a serious threat in LA but it says a lot that a 2-second PB to 3:29 with a good close will probably not get him on the podium (and that's an absolute best case scenario).
I think people are underestimating Kessler's chances at a medal. In February he ran the fourth fastest all time indoor mile. He is probably more fit now than he was then. Most importantly, a 2- or 3-second personal best during the peak of an age 21 season would not be unusual. His tactics have been sharp almost all season, he's become an expert at joining frontrunners, and his closing speed has improved. I wouldn't bet on a medal, necessarily, but I wouldn't count him out either.
I don't know if he's being counted out but the facts are that Jakob, Kerr, Nuguse, Hocker, Cheruiyot, and Komen all have a stronger argument for a medal if the race plays out roughly according to expectations. Kessler is a fantastic runner and will be a serious threat in LA but it says a lot that a 2-second PB to 3:29 with a good close will probably not get him on the podium (and that's an absolute best case scenario).
As the biggest Kessler shill on here, I would say this is fair.The one thing that would overly encourage me and a prediction upward, is he has looked really solid in his rounds..no real straining, no real panic buttons hit. He closed his slower first race in 1:49.5 , if he can punch down sub 40.00 last 300, he might get close to medals.
You have to wonder how much Jacob took out of the other runners legs in that semi. To me, that's exactly what he was trying to do. You could tell he was gauging how uncomfortable that effort was making everyone feel. Beat them down in the semi, then beat them down some more in the final. i'd imagine that's the way he wants to win, showcasing he's the strongest runner.
That’s exactly what he did. Did you see everyone else not named Jakob, Kerr, and Hocker? Komen was fighting for his life that last 250, and he is known to be able to close hard. The semifinal #1 time was a second slower than #2, but it was a much harder close and I’m sure it zapped their legs more.
Why has he gone from finishing outside the top 3 regularly to dominating then?
He hasn't. He has won two races, narrowly beating an ill or injured Jakob, running at reduced capacity. There is no regularity to what he's doing, two moderately decent races against weakened opposition, that's it.
Come on, calling a 3:29.38 closing in 53.xx to win the WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP and running 3:45.34 leading the last 600 to beat a stellar field “two moderately decent races” is being really biased and unfair. These are two phenomenal athletes at the top of their game.
Your insistence that Kerr can’t be in better than 3:28-mid/3:28-high form is silly. I think it’s pretty obvious that he’s on a completely different level than when he ran 3:29.05 in 2021. I highly doubt he’s capable of running 3:26.73 like Jakob has, but if Jakob makes the final lightning fast, Kerr will run a significant PB and something pretty high on the all-time list. I’d be willing to bet that if Jakob ran an even-paced 3:28.25 (with no real kick—just a hypothetical) Kerr would outkick him, and Jakob might not even take silver. It’s the race that all these men are trying to peak for, on a fast track, in what seems like a golden era of fast 1500 running. I could easily see Jakob 3:27.6/Kerr 3:27.8 with 4 other guys under 3:29 in a fast race.
He hasn't. He has won two races, narrowly beating an ill or injured Jakob, running at reduced capacity. There is no regularity to what he's doing, two moderately decent races against weakened opposition, that's it.
Come on, calling a 3:29.38 closing in 53.xx to win the WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP and running 3:45.34 leading the last 600 to beat a stellar field “two moderately decent races” is being really biased and unfair. These are two phenomenal athletes at the top of their game.
Your insistence that Kerr can’t be in better than 3:28-mid/3:28-high form is silly. I think it’s pretty obvious that he’s on a completely different level than when he ran 3:29.05 in 2021. I highly doubt he’s capable of running 3:26.73 like Jakob has, but if Jakob makes the final lightning fast, Kerr will run a significant PB and something pretty high on the all-time list. I’d be willing to bet that if Jakob ran an even-paced 3:28.25 (with no real kick—just a hypothetical) Kerr would outkick him, and Jakob might not even take silver. It’s the race that all these men are trying to peak for, on a fast track, in what seems like a golden era of fast 1500 running. I could easily see Jakob 3:27.6/Kerr 3:27.8 with 4 other guys under 3:29 in a fast race.
I could not see 4 more guys under 3;29.00
I expected the semis to be solidly above faster than most
Come on, calling a 3:29.38 closing in 53.xx to win the WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP and running 3:45.34 leading the last 600 to beat a stellar field “two moderately decent races” is being really biased and unfair. These are two phenomenal athletes at the top of their game.
Your insistence that Kerr can’t be in better than 3:28-mid/3:28-high form is silly. I think it’s pretty obvious that he’s on a completely different level than when he ran 3:29.05 in 2021. I highly doubt he’s capable of running 3:26.73 like Jakob has, but if Jakob makes the final lightning fast, Kerr will run a significant PB and something pretty high on the all-time list. I’d be willing to bet that if Jakob ran an even-paced 3:28.25 (with no real kick—just a hypothetical) Kerr would outkick him, and Jakob might not even take silver. It’s the race that all these men are trying to peak for, on a fast track, in what seems like a golden era of fast 1500 running. I could easily see Jakob 3:27.6/Kerr 3:27.8 with 4 other guys under 3:29 in a fast race.
I could not see 4 more guys under 3;29.00
I expected the semis to be solidly above faster than most
Too many good guys
6 under 3:29.00 in final??
I would take the under on that
I would take the under no question without knowing how the race will play out. If I knew Jakob was going to run a fairly even 3:27-mid, I would expect 4-6 guys under 3:29.00.
I think the margin of error is going to be very tight and a difference of 2 seconds can leave one of the big guns out of a medal. Here's how I see the results depending on the winner's time.
1. Sub 3:27 - Jakob is a heavy favorite as the fastest in the field, but this will require a pacer. Potato Tim could serve the purpose, but I highly doubt he will take the risk because unlike Tokyo the field has several fast runners who could leave him out of a medal. No one else will be pacing anywhere near 3:27. If it ends that fast, I predict Jakob-Kerr-Goose.
2. 3:27 - 3:28 - I think the only way we see this time run is with Jakob pushing from early on, and the only runner in shape to hang onto him and snipe him is Kerr. Unless Kerr has to surge and fight for positioning behind Jakob, I favor him heavily in this range. I know Jakob can handle the fast time, but I just don't see him having another gear at the end if he's doing all the work. In this time range, I predict it'll be Kerr-Jakob-Goose. 3rd place is a bit of a toss up here, with potential for Tim, Kessler and Hocker if they can run very clean races.
3. 3:29 - 3:32 - Assuming Jakob takes the lead after 400 and squeezes the field through the end, I think it plays into Hocker's hands as no one can match his kick off a manageable pace. He can drop a 53 but will need to be within striking range. Kerr will be glued to the front and secures a medal. I would boldly predict Hocker-Kerr-Jakob, with Kerr just sniping Jakob at the line. Depending on how clean he runs, I think Kessler may very close to bronze.
4. 3:33 or slower - the only way this happens is if by some miracle Jakob decides to roll the dice. This would be total carnage. We would see surges, elbows, runners getting boxed in. It would be a toss up, but here I give Hocker the edge if he can stay out of trouble. Tim would be a contender as well but he doesn't run cleanly. It's a toss up, but would say Hocker-Kerr-Kessler.
I see #2 as the most likely scenario. Jakob will go to the front, but he won't commit early enough to be able to run so fast as to take the kick out of everybody. I think he is overly confident about his fitness and speed and just doesn't see any other way to run this race. I do think he is afraid to go WR pace from the gun. It's just too risky. Plus Jakob has been planning for exactly this scenario since last summer and I think it'll go as planned. Kerr is just too laser focused and confident in championship racing. He knows this is the formula to win. IMO I think Jakob is mentally preparing for a silver even if he's pumping himself up to go hard.
I will start with the runners who in my opinion have almost zero chances to medal:
Nillesen, Arese, Gourley, Laros, Nordaas and (sorry THOUGHTSLEADER) Komen and Tim.
They had to go all in in the semifinals and especially the first mentioned have PBs far away from the top runners.
Laros time will possibly come but for now he isn´t fast enough.
Nordaas only just managed to qualify and his performances this season don´t indicate that he will be able to hang on to the top guys.
Komen and Tim didn´t look as they had fully recovered from the heat. Komen qualified well but he really had to work just to be close to Jakob and Kerr who were only cruising. And Tim did not have the strenght to hang on to Nuguse struggling all the way just to qualify.
So left as real medal contenders are the 3 Americans, Kerr and Jakob.
There have been a lot of discussion on this and other threads about Kerr´s PB at 3:29. I think it is quite clear that he in the Bowerman Mile 2024 was in sub 3:28 shape and if he has improved further - what would be normal - he could be in low 3:27 shape tomorrow (in a Monaco like paced race under good conditions provided Kerr doesn´t have to take over after the pacemakers drop out; if Kerr HAS to front run the last 500m he could possibly run low 3:28)
Jakob ran 3:26.73 in DL Monaco less than a month ago. I think he might have improved further so he could be in low 3:26 shape. So perhaps 2 second faster than Kerr in a paced DL race under equal conditions.
Nuguse looked strong in his semifinal and might be back in his Bowerman Mile 2023 shape: around mid 3:27. Mid 3:28 if he should front run after the pacemakers drop out.
Both Hocker and Kessler looked strong but it is uncertain how fast they can go in a really fast final. 3.28?
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I agree with the posters on this thread who argue that Nuguse could benefit from taking it out hard, for example with a 56 first lap or perhaps even a 84 first 600m. In that way he could secure to have Jakob´s back if the latter as expected take over to finish the race fast. He would then have the position he had in the Bowerman Mile 2023 and a chance both to outsprint Jakob in the finish and hold off Kerr in a ideal scenario. Perhaps Nuguse will even get help from Hocker and Kessler to hold off Josh if these 2 hang on to him (Nuguse) as they hang on to the leaders in their respective semifinals (and as they hang on to Nuguse in the US trial final).
If no one takes it out fast Jakob has to decide if he wants to front run most of the race with Kerr and/ or Nuguse on his shoulder or if he should wait some laps before he goes to the front. I would chose the last solution since frontrunning most of the race will annilate the difference between Jakob´s and Kerr´s and Nuguse´s potential PBs.
I think it is difficult to say who will win when the top guys look to be at the peak of their careers (at least so far) and when the potential of the top 3 seems to be quite close, especially when the supposed fastest guy is expected to front run most of the race.
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By the way: Kerr´ closest supporters (Trollminator, Sledge-Hammer and more) are certain that Kerr is the better championship racer, despite being beaten by Jakob in 4 out of 5 Worlds or Olympics finals. And despite Jakob winning numerous Euros finals indoor and outdoor starting winning double 1500m and 5000m gold at the age of 17.
And: Almost everyone here consider Kerr the superior finisher despite Jakob easily outsprinting Kerr twice last year (even though Kerr got pace from start to finish) whereas Kerr only has beaten Jakob narrowly twice in the same period.
The thing is that it does not matter if the final time is 3.30 or 3.27, or 3.32 for that matter. I think that Nuguse will make sure it is a quick first lap, ensuring an incredible fast time, but if it is a slow first lap then Jakob will make that last 1000 so hard and fast in the end that Kerr simply will not be able to overtake him. He managed to fight Kerr of through the final bend in Budapest while sick, and Kerr's 3.45 is still significantly behind Jakobs 3.26. Kerr will have to go wide through the final bend and run extra distance.
Don't get me wrong, Kerr has made an extremely impressive effort, and it is a fantastic Rocky Balboa moment if he actually gets the gold, but Jakob is that much better in my opinion. Kerr has improved massively, but so has Jakob.
If you believe that Jakob was sick in Budapest and that Kerr beat him in pre because Jakob was fresh off injury then you have to keep Jakob as the clear favorite in any plausible scenario come Tuesday.
Why would Nuguse or anyone else take it out hard when they know with certainty that Jakob will do the work for them?
As for Budapest, no I do not believe Jakob was sick. As for the performance at Pre I think Kerr is also faster now. He has been able to peak perfectly every year so I do not think he peaked early just to beat Jakob at Pre. It is a cold hard fact that Jakob has closed their PB gap.
It would be so much nicer to have this discussion if you didn´t have to drop the "dont believe he was sick" stupid af line.. it was sooooo evident from his extremely pale face and the doctor confirming it.
Anyways, even though he WAS sick, Kerr has improved more than Jakob since last year, and even though Im 100% sure Jakob would have won last year if he wasnt sick, Kerr would still be very close and has improved more than Jakob this year, so it is definitely not easy to say who will win this time around. Going to be an awesome race.
I brought it up because I distrust the conversion, given how far Nuguse has ever been from such a 1500m time. If converted mile PRs are far better than, actual 1500m PR, they are suspect.
Admittedly, 3:28.79 isn't that unrealistic, but I think I saw some people claiming it was well below 3:28.
I have higher opinions about the athletes, then, and I think lying about this is beyond the pale. Also, Jakob criticizes himself harshly, so doesn't fit the 'narcissist' bill. Large ego, sure, but also self-critical.
I didn't find it credible because 1) we didn't hear about it before the final, 2) he lined up to race so clearly he believed he was ready to win, 3) he crushed that 5k convincingly. A sick runner would not have gotten better and looked that good after running rounds and giving it all in a final. 4) he is a narcissist and naturally sought to cover his ego.
For what it matters: The Norwegian doctor for the Athletics team confirmed during Budapest that Jakob was sick after the 1,500 meter final and said he also run the 5000 m heat with a slight fever. I dont see a reason for the National team doctor to lie to the public about something like that (He is not Jakob's personal doctor)
My criticism of Jakob is that he never credits his opponents. If I were mildly sick it's not something I would highlight to a reporter when I get beaten in a championship race. I think it's strategically dumb also because that's the sort of perceived disrespect that fuels the competition. With Kerr for example he has helped to create a monster. I'm not fond of Kerr's outsized ego either but I can give the benefit of the doubt as long as someone is walking the talk. With these two sadly, someone is going to go home devastated, even with a silver.
I need this Jakob L so badly man because everybody else is disrespecting the competition so much right now it's annoying. I hope they box him in and somehow get him out of medal contention so I can hear the crying and excuses on here.
In a 3:33+ race: there is no favorite, but I would expected Hocker, Kessler, and Kerr to factor in the most.
Given the most likely outcome is a 3:28-3:29 race, Jakob and Kerr can be considered co-favorites overall. To me, it's as simple as this.
I highly doubt the race will be slower than 3:30, but this post made me think. We all talk about how a slower race opens the door up for the people who we label as kickers (Hocker, Kessler, Kerr, etc..). But Jakob is now a 3:26 guy. If he can run low 40s last 300 with his 3:26, I’d imagine he has much more left in a 3:32 race, as opposed to the kickers who pr’s are closer to 3:32. Jakob ran an insane last 400 at the Budapest semi finals and was waving at the crowd. Kerr barely beat him when he was sick in the final last year, so I don’t really understand why everyone labels as Kerr to be such an amazing kicker compared to Jakob. Jakob has out kicked Kerr before plenty of times. Rabat last year was a slower race, but blew away from Nuguse and Hoare the last 150. I can’t help but think that Jakob’s kick is extremely underrated. Yes, he has lost in the final kick to Wightman and Kerr the past two world titles, but he has shown to have wheels.
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We have enough Youth, What we need is a Fountain of Smart.
My thinking is this: We really don't know what these guys are capable of running timewise. Just like Nuguse last year, he hadn't given us any indication that he could actually pull off a 3:43 mile. And then he did! Of course, he had a perfect rabbit in Jakob.
Likewise, I think all of these guys are in close-to-top form. I would not give that to Nuguse. I think he's a step off this year. I don't think Jakob is going to let this go without a fight, obviously. I don't think he'll press in lap 1, but rather, as he did in the Semi, allow Lap 1 to develop, and then press at 3:25-26 pace. If that first lap is honest, say 56-57 (and I think Nuguse could be innocently beneficial honest), then I think we'll see something special. For sure an Olympic Record. 3:26mid to 2:27mid.
I still believe Kerr has the advantage here because he'll just sit on Jakob the whole way and kick 250 meters out. Don't fix what ain't broke, right?
The sleeper, and many have pointed it out, is Hocker. I think Hocker is poised to do what Nuguse did last year when there was no reason to think he could run a 3:43. I think Hocker looks comfortable at 3:31 pace and I believe he has more to give.
So, for me, if it's 3:28 or lower, I'm going with what I've seen so far this season, and that is Kerr-Jacob-Hocker. if it's over 3:28, I'm going with Hocker-Kerr-Jakob. I don't see Jakob in gold medal position this time around. And, I think a scare for the Men's American Record will be in play. Although, I don't see an American record happening because we don't have a true first-lap rabbit.
Let's be honest though: there are a thousand ways this race could go from a strategic standpoint. There are opportunities for getting boxed in (and I think this could be the Achilles Heel for Hocker). Anyone can have an off day. The dream, of course, is everyone being in top form with no niggles, and we have a race for the ages.
In a 3:33+ race: there is no favorite, but I would expected Hocker, Kessler, and Kerr to factor in the most.
Given the most likely outcome is a 3:28-3:29 race, Jakob and Kerr can be considered co-favorites overall. To me, it's as simple as this.
I highly doubt the race will be slower than 3:30, but this post made me think. We all talk about how a slower race opens the door up for the people who we label as kickers (Hocker, Kessler, Kerr, etc..). But Jakob is now a 3:26 guy. If he can run low 40s last 300 with his 3:26, I’d imagine he has much more left in a 3:32 race, as opposed to the kickers who pr’s are closer to 3:32. Jakob ran an insane last 400 at the Budapest semi finals and was waving at the crowd. Kerr barely beat him when he was sick in the final last year, so I don’t really understand why everyone labels as Kerr to be such an amazing kicker compared to Jakob. Jakob has out kicked Kerr before plenty of times. Rabat last year was a slower race, but blew away from Nuguse and Hoare the last 150. I can’t help but think that Jakob’s kick is extremely underrated. Yes, he has lost in the final kick to Wightman and Kerr the past two world titles, but he has shown to have wheels.
It's not that Jakob can't kick, it's that he has more of an advantage in a fast race. He has never lost a race that was won under 3:29 in his career. But he has lost several that have been won in 3:29+. The fact he can run 3:26 starts to matter less and less the farther you get away from 3:26 pace, because you're basically running a shorter race at that point (with a high-intensity warmup). As the real race distance decreases, the margins also decrease, meaning starting with a positioning advantage starts to matter more. Rio is the ultimate example: a 400-500m race won by the guy who was leading at the bell and would likely have won (or been close) if they had just raced an open 400 instead. There is zero question that Jakob would lose to some of his competitors in an open 800 race (Kessler being at the top of the list this season) so it stands to reason that the closer it becomes to an 800 race physiologically, the harder it gets for Jakob.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.