1500 men detailed predictions

Trollminator wrote:

I think the margin of error is going to be very tight and a difference of 2 seconds can leave one of the big guns out of a medal. Here's how I see the results depending on the winner's time.

1. Sub 3:27 - Jakob is a heavy favorite as the fastest in the field, but this will require a pacer. Potato Tim could serve the purpose, but I highly doubt he will take the risk because unlike Tokyo the field has several fast runners who could leave him out of a medal. No one else will be pacing anywhere near 3:27. If it ends that fast, I predict Jakob-Kerr-Goose.

2. 3:27 - 3:28 - I think the only way we see this time run is with Jakob pushing from early on, and the only runner in shape to hang onto him and snipe him is Kerr. Unless Kerr has to surge and fight for positioning behind Jakob, I favor him heavily in this range. I know Jakob can handle the fast time, but I just don't see him having another gear at the end if he's doing all the work. In this time range, I predict it'll be Kerr-Jakob-Goose. 3rd place is a bit of a toss up here, with potential for Tim, Kessler and Hocker if they can run very clean races.

3. 3:29 - 3:32 - Assuming Jakob takes the lead after 400 and squeezes the field through the end, I think it plays into Hocker's hands as no one can match his kick off a manageable pace. He can drop a 53 but will need to be within striking range. Kerr will be glued to the front and secures a medal. I would boldly predict Hocker-Kerr-Jakob, with Kerr just sniping Jakob at the line. Depending on how clean he runs, I think Kessler may very close to bronze.

4. 3:33 or slower - the only way this happens is if by some miracle Jakob decides to roll the dice. This would be total carnage. We would see surges, elbows, runners getting boxed in. It would be a toss up, but here I give Hocker the edge if he can stay out of trouble. Tim would be a contender as well but he doesn't run cleanly. It's a toss up, but would say Hocker-Kerr-Kessler.

I see #2 as the most likely scenario. Jakob will go to the front, but he won't commit early enough to be able to run so fast as to take the kick out of everybody. I think he is overly confident about his fitness and speed and just doesn't see any other way to run this race. I do think he is afraid to go WR pace from the gun. It's just too risky. Plus Jakob has been planning for exactly this scenario since last summer and I think it'll go as planned. Kerr is just too laser focused and confident in championship racing. He knows this is the formula to win. IMO I think Jakob is mentally preparing for a silver even if he's pumping himself up to go hard.

parisianbot wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

I think the margin of error is going to be very tight and a difference of 2 seconds can leave one of the big guns out of a medal. Here's how I see the results depending on the winner's time.

1. Sub 3:27 - Jakob is a heavy favorite as the fastest in the field, but this will require a pacer. Potato Tim could serve the purpose, but I highly doubt he will take the risk because unlike Tokyo the field has several fast runners who could leave him out of a medal. No one else will be pacing anywhere near 3:27. If it ends that fast, I predict Jakob-Kerr-Goose.

2. 3:27 - 3:28 - I think the only way we see this time run is with Jakob pushing from early on, and the only runner in shape to hang onto him and snipe him is Kerr. Unless Kerr has to surge and fight for positioning behind Jakob, I favor him heavily in this range. I know Jakob can handle the fast time, but I just don't see him having another gear at the end if he's doing all the work. In this time range, I predict it'll be Kerr-Jakob-Goose. 3rd place is a bit of a toss up here, with potential for Tim, Kessler and Hocker if they can run very clean races.

3. 3:29 - 3:32 - Assuming Jakob takes the lead after 400 and squeezes the field through the end, I think it plays into Hocker's hands as no one can match his kick off a manageable pace. He can drop a 53 but will need to be within striking range. Kerr will be glued to the front and secures a medal. I would boldly predict Hocker-Kerr-Jakob, with Kerr just sniping Jakob at the line. Depending on how clean he runs, I think Kessler may very close to bronze.

4. 3:33 or slower - the only way this happens is if by some miracle Jakob decides to roll the dice. This would be total carnage. We would see surges, elbows, runners getting boxed in. It would be a toss up, but here I give Hocker the edge if he can stay out of trouble. Tim would be a contender as well but he doesn't run cleanly. It's a toss up, but would say Hocker-Kerr-Kessler.

I see #2 as the most likely scenario. Jakob will go to the front, but he won't commit early enough to be able to run so fast as to take the kick out of everybody. I think he is overly confident about his fitness and speed and just doesn't see any other way to run this race. I do think he is afraid to go WR pace from the gun. It's just too risky. Plus Jakob has been planning for exactly this scenario since last summer and I think it'll go as planned. Kerr is just too laser focused and confident in championship racing. He knows this is the formula to win. IMO I think Jakob is mentally preparing for a silver even if he's pumping himself up to go hard.

How is JI not heavy favorite in all those scenarios???

willbeepic wrote:

Nobody is beating Jakob if it goes sub 3.28. Jakob will be leading the charge and there is no way that Kerr will manage to get past him on that pace. If you watch Budapest, Jacob managed to keep Kerr wide around the bend although he lost on the homestraight in the end.

I think Jacob looked a bit rough in the heat, but fantastic in the semi-final. He was barely out of breath when he talked to NRK right after and I kind of believe him when he says he is the favorite in any scenario. Looks fantastic and his form has been just as good as in his 3.26.

Got to respect Kerr for really putting in the effort, he looks incredible, but Jakob will prove why he is destined to become the goat. With his current shape Kerr would have demolished Jakob in Tokyo, but he is unfortunate to be in his prime simultaneously as Jakob.

If it is sub 3.29 I see Nordås snatching bronze, he said in his interview that he was hoping for a faster pace in the final so that he could get scraps on the homestraight.

willbeepic wrote:

Nobody is beating Jakob if it goes sub 3.28. Jakob will be leading the charge and there is no way that Kerr will manage to get past him on that pace. If you watch Budapest, Jacob managed to keep Kerr wide around the bend although he lost on the homestraight in the end.

I think Jacob looked a bit rough in the heat, but fantastic in the semi-final. He was barely out of breath when he talked to NRK right after and I kind of believe him when he says he is the favorite in any scenario. Looks fantastic and his form has been just as good as in his 3.26.

Got to respect Kerr for really putting in the effort, he looks incredible, but Jakob will prove why he is destined to become the goat. With his current shape Kerr would have demolished Jakob in Tokyo, but he is unfortunate to be in his prime simultaneously as Jakob.

If it is sub 3.29 I see Nordås snatching bronze, he said in his interview that he was hoping for a faster pace in the final so that he could get scraps on the homestraight.

Sledge_Hammer wrote:

willbeepic wrote:

Nobody is beating Jakob if it goes sub 3.28. Jakob will be leading the charge and there is no way that Kerr will manage to get past him on that pace. If you watch Budapest, Jacob managed to keep Kerr wide around the bend although he lost on the homestraight in the end.

I think Jacob looked a bit rough in the heat, but fantastic in the semi-final. He was barely out of breath when he talked to NRK right after and I kind of believe him when he says he is the favorite in any scenario. Looks fantastic and his form has been just as good as in his 3.26.

Got to respect Kerr for really putting in the effort, he looks incredible, but Jakob will prove why he is destined to become the goat. With his current shape Kerr would have demolished Jakob in Tokyo, but he is unfortunate to be in his prime simultaneously as Jakob.

If it is sub 3.29 I see Nordås snatching bronze, he said in his interview that he was hoping for a faster pace in the final so that he could get scraps on the homestraight.

Kerr has gotten so much strong this season with his 8:00. And he beat Jakob by taking the lead from 600 at Pre and still got a 3:28 equivalent time. He's only stronger now. If he has Jakob to sit on for 1300m at 3:27 pace, there's no way he can';t break 3:28 and most likely beat Jakob in the process.

willbeepic wrote:

The thing is that it does not matter if the final time is 3.30 or 3.27, or 3.32 for that matter. I think that Nuguse will make sure it is a quick first lap, ensuring an incredible fast time, but if it is a slow first lap then Jakob will make that last 1000 so hard and fast in the end that Kerr simply will not be able to overtake him. He managed to fight Kerr of through the final bend in Budapest while sick, and Kerr's 3.45 is still significantly behind Jakobs 3.26. Kerr will have to go wide through the final bend and run extra distance.

Don't get me wrong, Kerr has made an extremely impressive effort, and it is a fantastic Rocky Balboa moment if he actually gets the gold, but Jakob is that much better in my opinion. Kerr has improved massively, but so has Jakob.

If you believe that Jakob was sick in Budapest and that Kerr beat him in pre because Jakob was fresh off injury then you have to keep Jakob as the clear favorite in any plausible scenario come Tuesday.

Trollminator wrote:

willbeepic wrote:

The thing is that it does not matter if the final time is 3.30 or 3.27, or 3.32 for that matter. I think that Nuguse will make sure it is a quick first lap, ensuring an incredible fast time, but if it is a slow first lap then Jakob will make that last 1000 so hard and fast in the end that Kerr simply will not be able to overtake him. He managed to fight Kerr of through the final bend in Budapest while sick, and Kerr's 3.45 is still significantly behind Jakobs 3.26. Kerr will have to go wide through the final bend and run extra distance.

Don't get me wrong, Kerr has made an extremely impressive effort, and it is a fantastic Rocky Balboa moment if he actually gets the gold, but Jakob is that much better in my opinion. Kerr has improved massively, but so has Jakob.

If you believe that Jakob was sick in Budapest and that Kerr beat him in pre because Jakob was fresh off injury then you have to keep Jakob as the clear favorite in any plausible scenario come Tuesday.

Why would Nuguse or anyone else take it out hard when they know with certainty that Jakob will do the work for them?

As for Budapest, no I do not believe Jakob was sick. As for the performance at Pre I think Kerr is also faster now. He has been able to peak perfectly every year so I do not think he peaked early just to beat Jakob at Pre. It is a cold hard fact that Jakob has closed their PB gap.

yawn46885 wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

Why would Nuguse or anyone else take it out hard when they know with certainty that Jakob will do the work for them?

As for Budapest, no I do not believe Jakob was sick. As for the performance at Pre I think Kerr is also faster now. He has been able to peak perfectly every year so I do not think he peaked early just to beat Jakob at Pre. It is a cold hard fact that Jakob has closed their PB gap.

Why would Nuguse?

Perhaps because he wants to repeat the Bowerman Mile of 2023 and thinks the best way to create that is to start off fast so that Jakob doesn't have to lead from wire to wire?

Even if Kerr has improved by 2 seconds since Bowerman 24 -- a real if -- that puts him on par with Nuguse from Bowerman 23.

And Nuguse is basically on the same 1500 DL time trajectory as last year.

So it's reasonable to assume that Nuguse would think his best chance of beating Kerr (and maybe Jakob) is a 3:26/7-type race.

Yet as you've pointed out dozens of times, that's hard to do on your own. So Nuguse may conclude that Jakob needs a little help early on to create such dynamics.

Recall, too, that Jakob ran the last 700 meters of Bowerman 23 out front w/o a pacer...including from 700 to 600m to go into a headwind