We've closed this thread to new posts. Please discuss this topic in a new thread given the fact she just won the race outright in 2023. Does that mean that the 2022 cheating allegations definitely have no merit?
I think the twins were actually triplets. They were hiding one in the Sprinter van, so while Ashley rested in the van they could still have a second body out on the course. The second twin probably looked more similar to Ashley, including the hair color.
Or maybe not, but that's how I would do it fam.
Well, as far as conspiracy theories, I think it’s more plausible than them fabricating a gpx file. If they were running the Badwater 135 Shuttle Van Service, when did it start its service? Was it shuttling Ashley around the course throughout the first 122 miles in daylight hours. Was it doing it during the first 72 miles when Ashley would have been easily visible to Harvey’s crew and race officials?
Harvey could see her for most, if not all, of the first 72 miles (to Panamint), and probably some after that, so any funny business probably would have happened in daylight hours. MI mentions the 'incident 6-8 miles past Panamint' with the sprinter van and again on Portal Rd.
Posting this again as it really is bonkers. The gap got crazy between Panamint and Darwin, and even crazier on Portal. Mileage is a rough estimate.
Furnace Creek (17.5) : Ashley 2 mins ahead Stovepipe Wells (42.2): Ashley 1 min ahead Towne Pass (59): Ashley 16 mins (~1.5 mi) ahead Panamint Springs (72.7): Ashley 8 mins (~0.75 mi) ahead Darwin (90.6): Ashley 42 mins (~3 mi) ahead Keeler (108.0): Ashley 36 mins (~2.5 mi) ahead Lone Pine (122.7): Ashley 49 mins (~4 mi) ahead Portal Road (131.1): Ashley 2 hour 17 mins (8-10 mi) ahead Finish (135): Ashley 3 hours 7 mins (~10 mi) ahead
Did she get really good at hills, with Ryan Hall's help? Most of her experience is on downhill marathon courses. Not sure about the IM courses. If there was a sprinter van, why? Like what was the purpose of a whole ass other large vehicle?
No trying to offend the ultra community here, but it frankly comes off that some of you are grasping at straws to inflate your super niche place in the running community.
Everything presented against this runner has been pure conjecture and innuendo. "She's just a solid marathoner that's completed faster marathons and full distance triathlons than most of the ultra community. She couldn't possibly transfer that skill set to an ultra."
Endurance running is endurance running.
There are articles about how the ultra community has effectively kept segments of the running community out of ultras. Throw serious money at professional road runners and they'll come in and start to dominate the ultra scene.
Do better than X-Files level "I want to believe" she cheated.
Well, as far as conspiracy theories, I think it’s more plausible than them fabricating a gpx file. If they were running the Badwater 135 Shuttle Van Service, when did it start its service? Was it shuttling Ashley around the course throughout the first 122 miles in daylight hours. Was it doing it during the first 72 miles when Ashley would have been easily visible to Harvey’s crew and race officials?
Harvey could see her for most, if not all, of the first 72 miles (to Panamint), and probably some after that, so any funny business probably would have happened in daylight hours. MI mentions the 'incident 6-8 miles past Panamint' with the sprinter van and again on Portal Rd.
Posting this again as it really is bonkers. The gap got crazy between Panamint and Darwin, and even crazier on Portal. Mileage is a rough estimate.
Furnace Creek (17.5) : Ashley 2 mins ahead Stovepipe Wells (42.2): Ashley 1 min ahead Towne Pass (59): Ashley 16 mins (~1.5 mi) ahead Panamint Springs (72.7): Ashley 8 mins (~0.75 mi) ahead Darwin (90.6): Ashley 42 mins (~3 mi) ahead Keeler (108.0): Ashley 36 mins (~2.5 mi) ahead Lone Pine (122.7): Ashley 49 mins (~4 mi) ahead Portal Road (131.1): Ashley 2 hour 17 mins (8-10 mi) ahead Finish (135): Ashley 3 hours 7 mins (~10 mi) ahead
Did she get really good at hills, with Ryan Hall's help? Most of her experience is on downhill marathon courses. Not sure about the IM courses. If there was a sprinter van, why? Like what was the purpose of a whole ass other large vehicle?
I don’t think the increased gap between Harvey and Ashley from Lone Pine (122 mi) to the finish means anything. Harvey was obviously walking it in at ~24 min/mile (more than 2 hours slower than he’s been on this section before). Not that his overall result is bad. If nothing inappropriate happened before Panamint at 72 mi, that means she ran faster than him in the heat for 72 miles, including much faster up the climb to Towne Pass. Not bad for a just a “lowly” Olympic Trials marathoner. The leg from Panamint to Darwin up the climb where she gained 34 minutes on Harvey is faster than him, but I think it has to be put in the context of what Eric Spencer said about better conditions after Panamint for the first three runners (Yoshi, Ivan, Ashley) and worsening conditions for Harvey and runners further back. Yoshi, for example, ran that leg only 7 minutes slower than his course record-setting leg and the 6th fastest the leg has ever been run (and 29 minutes faster than Ashley). Ivan was only 6 minutes slower than Ashley. Harvey, on the other hand, was well over an hour slower than the fastest he’s run that leg (for whatever reason). I’m not saying the time gap changes prove she didn’t cheat. I just think the time gap changes can’t really demonstrate anything at this point. They’d have to have a very talented hill runner who is used to running in hot temps hiding in that van. They would have to coordinate the pace and heart rate so that there weren’t any unexplained differences as they switched off. Very well-planned and executed if this was the case.
Harvey could see her for most, if not all, of the first 72 miles (to Panamint), and probably some after that, so any funny business probably would have happened in daylight hours. MI mentions the 'incident 6-8 miles past Panamint' with the sprinter van and again on Portal Rd.
Posting this again as it really is bonkers. The gap got crazy between Panamint and Darwin, and even crazier on Portal. Mileage is a rough estimate.
Furnace Creek (17.5) : Ashley 2 mins ahead Stovepipe Wells (42.2): Ashley 1 min ahead Towne Pass (59): Ashley 16 mins (~1.5 mi) ahead Panamint Springs (72.7): Ashley 8 mins (~0.75 mi) ahead Darwin (90.6): Ashley 42 mins (~3 mi) ahead Keeler (108.0): Ashley 36 mins (~2.5 mi) ahead Lone Pine (122.7): Ashley 49 mins (~4 mi) ahead Portal Road (131.1): Ashley 2 hour 17 mins (8-10 mi) ahead Finish (135): Ashley 3 hours 7 mins (~10 mi) ahead
Did she get really good at hills, with Ryan Hall's help? Most of her experience is on downhill marathon courses. Not sure about the IM courses. If there was a sprinter van, why? Like what was the purpose of a whole ass other large vehicle?
If you're going to compare her splits to another runner, you need to look at what that other runner was doing at the same time. From Panamint Springs to Darwin, what did this Harvey guy do? Did he maintain pace, or even accelerate? Or did he slow down, even stop to rest, refuel? The same goes for the segment from Lone Pine to Portal Road.
If he slowed down, or stopped to refuel while she kept chugging along, picking up huge chunks of time is no surprise at all. If he maintained pace or accelerated, but she still picked up huge chunks of time, that's more unusual.
Has he released his GPS data?
What the other runner was doing during those segments is critically important in knowing how unusual, or normal, the other runner's performance was, relative to the runner you're comparing to.
Harvey could see her for most, if not all, of the first 72 miles (to Panamint), and probably some after that, so any funny business probably would have happened in daylight hours. MI mentions the 'incident 6-8 miles past Panamint' with the sprinter van and again on Portal Rd.
Posting this again as it really is bonkers. The gap got crazy between Panamint and Darwin, and even crazier on Portal. Mileage is a rough estimate.
Furnace Creek (17.5) : Ashley 2 mins ahead Stovepipe Wells (42.2): Ashley 1 min ahead Towne Pass (59): Ashley 16 mins (~1.5 mi) ahead Panamint Springs (72.7): Ashley 8 mins (~0.75 mi) ahead Darwin (90.6): Ashley 42 mins (~3 mi) ahead Keeler (108.0): Ashley 36 mins (~2.5 mi) ahead Lone Pine (122.7): Ashley 49 mins (~4 mi) ahead Portal Road (131.1): Ashley 2 hour 17 mins (8-10 mi) ahead Finish (135): Ashley 3 hours 7 mins (~10 mi) ahead
Did she get really good at hills, with Ryan Hall's help? Most of her experience is on downhill marathon courses. Not sure about the IM courses. If there was a sprinter van, why? Like what was the purpose of a whole ass other large vehicle?
I don’t think the increased gap between Harvey and Ashley from Lone Pine (122 mi) to the finish means anything. Harvey was obviously walking it in at ~24 min/mile (more than 2 hours slower than he’s been on this section before). Not that his overall result is bad. If nothing inappropriate happened before Panamint at 72 mi, that means she ran faster than him in the heat for 72 miles, including much faster up the climb to Towne Pass. Not bad for a just a “lowly” Olympic Trials marathoner. The leg from Panamint to Darwin up the climb where she gained 34 minutes on Harvey is faster than him, but I think it has to be put in the context of what Eric Spencer said about better conditions after Panamint for the first three runners (Yoshi, Ivan, Ashley) and worsening conditions for Harvey and runners further back. Yoshi, for example, ran that leg only 7 minutes slower than his course record-setting leg and the 6th fastest the leg has ever been run (and 29 minutes faster than Ashley). Ivan was only 6 minutes slower than Ashley. Harvey, on the other hand, was well over an hour slower than the fastest he’s run that leg (for whatever reason). I’m not saying the time gap changes prove she didn’t cheat. I just think the time gap changes can’t really demonstrate anything at this point. They’d have to have a very talented hill runner who is used to running in hot temps hiding in that van. They would have to coordinate the pace and heart rate so that there weren’t any unexplained differences as they switched off. Very well-planned and executed if this was the case.
So, how do we know Harvey wasn't cheating? The way he slowed down suddenly like that seems suspicious 🤔
No trying to offend the ultra community here, but it frankly comes off that some of you are grasping at straws to inflate your super niche place in the running community.
Everything presented against this runner has been pure conjecture and innuendo. "She's just a solid marathoner that's completed faster marathons and full distance triathlons than most of the ultra community. She couldn't possibly transfer that skill set to an ultra."
Endurance running is endurance running.
There are articles about how the ultra community has effectively kept segments of the running community out of ultras. Throw serious money at professional road runners and they'll come in and start to dominate the ultra scene.
Do better than X-Files level "I want to believe" she cheated.
This is clearly a post from someone that doesn't know anything about ultrarunning. Molly Seidel just finished as 8th woman in a regular old mountain race. Its not like there's a lot of money in professional road running for guys who say run 2:10-2:20 marathons. You're also ignoring her past. If Camille Herron (for example) did what Ashley Paulson did, everybody would be cheering with no questions. But Ashley failed a drug test before. She tried to claim a win in a race when she knew she didn't run the right course (we'll just say it that way), and in some of her social media posts she describes going off course in multiple races she won. Its that past behavior that left her open to the intense scrutiny.
The questionable splits to me (but that would be possible) are once the sun went down past Lone Pine. But, the key part there is that up until that point, she was within 0 to 2 miles of Harvey Lewis and Lee Whitaker...even coming into some checkpoints together. Didn't they see her run that first 15 miles within eyeshot? Couldn't they see she was happy, comfortable, and doing fine? So what then makes them think she wasn't legit as she gradually pulled away from them later - they watched it. Or was there some sort of monkey business somehow during the day right in front of them? The rest of all of this is speculation based on nothing absent public statements of what they saw all day long into Keeler. And if they saw nothing but its just 'there's no way she could have' then its sour grapes. When I look at her racing resume of triathlons, 100 marathons, many times in close proximity, I think she's got some of that Mike Wardian durability in her. There are people like that.
No trying to offend the ultra community here, but it frankly comes off that some of you are grasping at straws to inflate your super niche place in the running community.
Everything presented against this runner has been pure conjecture and innuendo. "She's just a solid marathoner that's completed faster marathons and full distance triathlons than most of the ultra community. She couldn't possibly transfer that skill set to an ultra."
Endurance running is endurance running.
There are articles about how the ultra community has effectively kept segments of the running community out of ultras. Throw serious money at professional road runners and they'll come in and start to dominate the ultra scene.
Do better than X-Files level "I want to believe" she cheated.
This is clearly a post from someone that doesn't know anything about ultrarunning. Molly Seidel just finished as 8th woman in a regular old mountain race. Its not like there's a lot of money in professional road running for guys who say run 2:10-2:20 marathons. You're also ignoring her past. If Camille Herron (for example) did what Ashley Paulson did, everybody would be cheering with no questions. But Ashley failed a drug test before. She tried to claim a win in a race when she knew she didn't run the right course (we'll just say it that way), and in some of her social media posts she describes going off course in multiple races she won. Its that past behavior that left her open to the intense scrutiny.
The questionable splits to me (but that would be possible) are once the sun went down past Lone Pine. But, the key part there is that up until that point, she was within 0 to 2 miles of Harvey Lewis and Lee Whitaker...even coming into some checkpoints together. Didn't they see her run that first 15 miles within eyeshot? Couldn't they see she was happy, comfortable, and doing fine? So what then makes them think she wasn't legit as she gradually pulled away from them later - they watched it. Or was there some sort of monkey business somehow during the day right in front of them? The rest of all of this is speculation based on nothing absent public statements of what they saw all day long into Keeler. And if they saw nothing but its just 'there's no way she could have' then its sour grapes. When I look at her racing resume of triathlons, 100 marathons, many times in close proximity, I think she's got some of that Mike Wardian durability in her. There are people like that.
Sorry, bad typo - they ran with her for 15 HOURS, not miles.
So, how do we know Harvey wasn't cheating? The way he slowed down suddenly like that seems suspicious 🤔
Exactly. There are so many ways to look at a situation like this and certain people are choosing to look at it only from one angle.
Like I said a few pages back, Derek of Marathon Investigation is very thorough. Not that it makes cheating impossible, if he can't find it. But it makes finding it unlikely enough that spending inordinate amounts of free time on finding what he couldn't find, is probably a waste of time.
And no, mysterious hint-posts on social media are not evidence of anything.
So, how do we know Harvey wasn't cheating? The way he slowed down suddenly like that seems suspicious 🤔
And no, mysterious hint-posts on social media are not evidence of anything.
And he still hasn't confirmed (or denied) that his post is about her.
The time differentials seem to show that he slowed to a walk, she didn't, and he got blitzed in those sections. The evidence isn't that she got in a van or used a doppleganger. The evidence is that he slowed to a crawl.
We need some real cheater threads. Come on cheaters, get out there and do some cheating. We're filling the void with an Olympic trails qualifier who has a resume consistent with her performance. There's no real evidence of cheating but some splits look sorta kinda almost suspicious and the result might be maybe a little better than expected.
The time differentials seem to show that he slowed to a walk, she didn't, and he got blitzed in those sections. The evidence isn't that she got in a van or used a doppleganger. The evidence is that he slowed to a crawl.
I never said you said you ran a time like Ashley's. I said you have claimed many many times in this thread that you have insight into what's possible for her on this course. If you're a much slower runner, good for you. But in that case don't claim expertise and insight you don't have. That's like me saying an elite marathoner couldn't possibly run sub-14 minutes for the final 5km of a marathon because that feels unfathomably fast to me based on my experience of many many 2:30-2:40 marathons - pure arrogance.
I can't touch her in the marathon. But it's pretty easy to see what she is as a 100 runner with the progression of her PRs. I know there's speculation that she backed off late in her 17:26 but a good 100 isn't run at a hard pace like a marathon or something shorter and if you're cruising with an easy-ish run at 9 p.m. and are possibly going to be done at 10 or 11, you're not just gonna say "hey, I think I'll just make this easy run even easier and stay out here until midnight". I feel pretty strongly that she was not capable of faster than 17, and that's being generous.
If you look at how her times trend from shorter to longer distances, look at all the times on her Ultrasignup, you know who she is as an ultra runner. She's good, but the quality of her times drop off with longer distances. Marathon is her distance. She could probably turn in a similar performance to Sally, I think they could both have a good day and break 30. The difference from 24 to 30 on that course is like 2:10 to 2:45 in the marathon. It's a huge gap that takes the leap from very good to elite and there's zero to indicate that she's that good. Also just to be clear I will never be capable of a 2:45 in the marathon or a sub-30 at Badwater. So disqualify my opinion if you want.
Given her track record, knowing she never showed any signs of being elite at 100+ (she's not gonna get there from 17 and change in half a year) and knowing that she made two unfathomable bursts on extremely difficult climbs when she'd be very fatigued. Sure, it's possible, I guess, but extremely unlikely. She's a good athlete, but it's not like she's a world-class Olympian. Also seems odd that she establishes herself as one of the best ultra runners ever and she says her immediate next focus is returning to the marathon.
It's tedious trying to compare races of different distances. But I'm a sleuthing loser up for the challenge. So I used this tool to predict 100 mile races at a BW elevation profile based on some of the top BW finishers' 100 mile PRs. Then I tacked on 35 miles based on their average pace for the last 35 miles of BW.
I didn't think the tool would end up being accurate, but if you look at Harvey, Yoshihiko and Patrycja's BW predicted times from the tool vs their actual BW PRs, it's pretty damn close.
Who sticks out here? Well, Ashley. But in her defense this breakout could be explained by 1) her marathon speed 2) heat training 3) Ryan Hall effect. What's also clear is that Harvey didn't have a stellar race this year, and that later heat, as someone else said, probably got to him.
At this point I think you have to conclude, as I'd hoped, that Harvey is too mature to stoop to internet sniping so isn't going to respond to that comment one way or the other. Which of course also implies that all of the vague posts that could be read as critiques of Paulsen if you squinted really hard, but could also just be regular somewhat inspirational running pablum ("there are no shortcuts" - well duh), are almost certainly the latter.
We need some real cheater threads. Come on cheaters, get out there and do some cheating. We're filling the void with an Olympic trails qualifier who has a resume consistent with her performance. There's no real evidence of cheating but some splits look sorta kinda almost suspicious and the result might be maybe a little better than expected.
We need us some real cheaters.
Or, you know, fill that void with anything other than obsessing about potential race cheats.
Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win a LetsRun t-shirt.Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win one of 10 LetsRun t-shirts.