Is the 2017 Chicago Marathon being set up so Galen Rupp is almost guaranteed to win it?

Precious Roy wrote:

Chicago pretty much resigned itself to being a second tier marathon major after it dropped pacers.

^This

Chicago should not be considered a "world" major marathon anymore.

rupp-certified saladbra wrote:

rojo wrote:

The average person thinks a win in Chicago, New York, hell even the Marine Corps marathon is prestigious. When my brother won the Marine Corps marathon, his co-workers were asking him if he'd win New York or Boston.

And the average runner (as compared to person) cares a lot more about a Chicago Marathon win than they do a 2:05 loss in some marathon they've never heard of. I do as well.

Rojo is 100% right.

A WIN means much more than a 2:06, 2:05 or even 2:04 to the general public ($$$).

And since Rupp has never WON a major international race in his career, he must want one bad at this point.

Even if he wins Chicago he won't be the best US marathoner of the 201X era, though.

I think if Rupp can win one major international he will immediately retire while he's on top.

So please ***don't*** open up a legitimate field in Chicago. Let's get this "win" over with, so we can move on. It's like letting a kid win at checkers so you can put them to bed.

rupp-certified saladbra wrote:

I think if Rupp can win one major international he will immediately retire while he's on top.

Chicago is not that race. Years ago it was. But not now.

rupp-certified saladbra wrote:

rupp-certified saladbra wrote:

Rojo is 100% right.

A WIN means much more than a 2:06, 2:05 or even 2:04 to the general public ($$$).

And since Rupp has never WON a major international race in his career, he must want one bad at this point.

Even if he wins Chicago he won't be the best US marathoner of the 201X era, though.

I think if Rupp can win one major international he will immediately retire while he's on top.

So please ***don't*** open up a legitimate field in Chicago. Let's get this "win" over with, so we can move on. It's like letting a kid win at checkers so you can put them to bed.

Thanks Rojo

Andrew Bumbalough FTW with a lean at the tape over Galen!

hahariiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight wrote:

rupp-certified saladbra wrote:

I think if Rupp can win one major international he will immediately retire while he's on top.

So please ***don't*** open up a legitimate field in Chicago. Let's get this "win" over with, so we can move on. It's like letting a kid win at checkers so you can put them to bed.

Thanks Rojo

I'm not rojo. And Rupp has never won a major race. Try and name one.

Galen Rupp will not have a breakthrough. If NOP being under fire for possible cheating is true, then he will stop taking whatever he was taking and slide back to 2:11:xx-2:13:xx for this performance. This argument is subjective. It does not mean, however, that it is entirely inaccurate.

TryThisMyManRojo wrote:

Galen Rupp will not have a breakthrough. If NOP being under fire for possible cheating is true, then he will stop taking whatever he was taking and slide back to 2:11:xx-2:13:xx for this performance. This argument is subjective. It does not mean, however, that it is entirely inaccurate.

2:11:xx-2:13:xx is a likely top 3 finish at has become of the Chicago marathon.

list of Good Press needed for Salazar to come out of the Shadows

Rupp Wins a Major Marathon (Chicago)

Hasey Wins Major Marathon or gets second (Chicago)

Craig Engels is a very likable personality in Track and Gives the NOP good Press

Clayton Murphy and Centrowitz are both Very likeable and give the NOP good press

In a watered Down London 2018 marathon Galen And Mo who in manufactured comeback story train together in a media build up and run 2:05 low ish (Recreates the 1 and 2 10k in london finish) and they both get there respective Nations Records for the marathon.

= Salazar back into the spotlight.

Njj wrote:

I don't think Meb had a lot of competition when he won 2014 Boston and 2009 NYC marathon. So that question is no different for him or any other runners out there.

Try again. We called New York in 2009 a "race for the ages" in our preview.

Here is who was in it:

Gharib- 2;05:27

Lel 2:05:15,

Makaua - 2:06:14

Kwambai - 2:04:27 (59:08 half 7 weeks before race)

Hall - 2:06:17

Ramaala 2:06:55

Robert Kipkoech Cheruyiot - 2:07:14 - 4 Bos titles.

Bouramdane - 2:08:20

dos Santos - 2:08:37 but two time NY champ)

That's 9 guys under 2:09.

As for Boston 2014, try again as well. 2014 Boston had 15 guys in it with PBs under 2:10 (7 under 2:06). Chicago has 3 under 2:10.

Dennis Kimetto 2:03:45 (Chicago 2013) CR Kenya

Lelisa Desisa 2:04:45 (Dubai, 2013) Ethiopia

Gebre Gebremariam 2:04:53 (Boston, 2011) Ethiopia

Markos Geneti 2:04:54 (Dubai, 2012) Ethiopia

Ryan Hall 2:04:58 (Boston, 2011) USA

Wilson Chebet 2:05:27 (Rotterdam, 2011) Kenya

Tilahun Regassa 2:05:27 (Chicago, 2012) Ethiopia

Frankline Chepkwony 2:06:11 (Eindhoven, 2012) Kenya

Micah Kogo 2:06:56 (Chicago, 2013) Kenya

Adil Annani 2:07:43 (London, 2012) Morocco

Paul Lonyangata 2:07:44 (Xiamen, 2013) Kenya

Joel Kimurer 2:07:48 (Gongju, 2013) Kenya

Lusapho April 2:08:32 (Hannover, 2013) CR South Africa

Abdi Abdirahman 2:08:56 (Chicago, 2006) USA

Mebrahtom Keflezighi 2:09:08 (Houston, 2012) USA

Proof:

and here:

LavenderScentedCandle wrote:

Rupp Wins a Major Marathon (Chicago)

Hasey Wins Major Marathon or gets second (Chicago)

Chicago is no longer a major.

I hope you read the post I just made. It amazes me that you are such a Rupp fan that you label an article calling out a World Marathon Major field with 3 sub-2:10 guys in it as weak as click bait.

It's the opposite of click bait. If I wanted to make money, do you really think I'd continue to make posts that many people view as anti-NIke - the #1 spender in our sport?

I didn't say anything about them not taking things seriously. They are trying to create nice storylines but their elite men's field is embarrasingly bad for a world marathon major.

You say a little weak. I say A LOT weak. Tokyo is often viewed as a weak major. It had 20 sub -2:10 guys on the start line this year and 10 sub 2:07. Berlin is often viewed as not very deep. Guess what? They had 10 sub-2;07 guys on the start line last year.

They could have a 200 Americans. That's not what I'm writing about. If the Yankees have an amazing triple AAA team, what does that have to do with anything?

Precious Roy wrote:

Shouldn't this be a "Rupp is ducking the competition" thread? Chicago pretty much resigned itself to being a second tier marathon major after it dropped pacers.

I like the race without pacers. There are only 2-3 guys who even think about the WR. Most guys care about getting paid.

Chicago has Tirunesh Dibaba.

Last year's men's race wasn't that deep but much deeper than this year's. To the guy who said they are investing in 2:14 Americans, well last year they had Estrada, Kibet, Puskedra, etc. as well.

Plus these elites;

Dickson Chumba Kenya 2:04:32 Defending champ was 3rd in Tokyo in February

Tsegaye Kebede Ethiopia 2:04:38 2012 champ was one of world’s best from ’08-’14 but last good marathon was in April ’14

Abel Kirui Kenya 2:05:04 2-time world champ was 5th in Tokyo in February

Abayneh Ayele Ethiopia 2:06:45 Barely edged out by Mo Farah for World Half bronze in March

Micah Kogo Kenya 2:06:56 4th in Paris in April; ’08 Oly. bronze in 10k

Paul Lonyangata Kenya 2:07:14 Won Shanghai in Nov., then 5th in Boston

Gideon Kipketer Kenya 2:08:14 Won Mumbai in January after starting race as a pacer

Koji Gokaya Japan 2:09:21 Ran PR in Tokyo last year but only 47th in 2:21 there in Feb.

Takuya Fukatsu Japan 2:09:31 Coming off 2+ minute PR at Lake Biwa in March

And Sambu

I mean that's not real deep with only 8 Africans but it's nothing like this year.

Hmmmm, interesting.

IF I could say about the 2 subjects (Chicago Marathon and Rupp "winning a watered-down marathon), here are my takes..........

A) CHICAGO MARATHON:

Yes, agree that it is no longer a major marathon, and if you like, a Tier 1 marathon.

To me, Tier 1 marathons are Boston, London, NYC, and Berlin.

You might argue a few others, but I just see those as being the major headline grabbing marathons. They have the money, large elite fields, and A LOT of other runners.

Chicago used to be up there, but then companies must have looked at NYC and realize they could get more there than at Chicago. OR they did not see any return on the investment in a marathon and left the sport altogether or went to other running races. Granted, Bank of American has a lot of money, but I just do not see them investing as much here as some other companies do at the big 4.

FWIW, to show my age and how long I have been running, remember these big 3 marathons: Boston, NYC, Fukuoka? I know Fukuoka still has TOUGH qualifying times, but still if you look at 2016 results it is not like the past when all the big male runners went.

B) RUPP AND HASAY AT CHICAGO

This is a bit harder to come up with why they are there.

I think it might be a combination of things:

a) If you look at the times, they seem matching, but Chicago is a faster course. It seems to be more attuned to track runners. I am not saying Rupp and Hasay could not run fast at NYC, maybe they could. But when you see Dathan Ritzenhein ran a 2hr07, they and, most notably, their coach (Alberto Salazar) must realize they can blize a time at Chicago than NYC.

I admit I have never run Chicago and have not see an elevation map of Chicago. But I have run NYC and you do not realize how those small hills add up, and 1st Avenue has the hardest surface I ever ran on (except for some cobblestone streets in my old home town).

b) This one might be pointed towards Hasay's and Rupp's agents/managers.

The money to appear at race at NYC Marathon might have not been there for Rupp and Hasay. Although Hasay has run 2hr23, she is still not really there with the top women marathoners....yet. Yes, Hasay did phenomenally great at Boston, but nothing yet on the 2 big marathons (Olympics and World Championships) as well as does not have a long list of marathon races. NYC Marathon people could have held back from offering her money to go there.

As for Rupp, yes, he did run a 2hr09 at Boston this year, but really, it is not as fast as others have run (even Rupp's coach ran a 2hr08). And like Hasay, Rupp does not have a lot of marathons to his name. So NYC Marathon people could have held back on the money for the appearance fee.

c) The perks for finishing could be another reason those 2 are going to Chicago.

Chicago Marathon is a IAAF Gold Label (like Boston, London, NYC and Berlin), so if Rupp and Hasay finsh well at Chicago they could get a nice bonus check from their sponsor (Nike). It is probably written in their contract under the "Performance" area. Finishing well at NYC would probably take a heck of an effort given the course and other runners.

Hard to say, but I think it is a combination of things that see Rupp and Hasay at Chicago than NYC.

Okay, I am tired and my eyes are killing me. Need to get up early as well for morning 5 miler.

Dude, you need to get a life. It's running...it's not that serious.

rojo wrote:

...My big fear is there are few people treating the sport of professional running seriously.....

Asterisk by Meb's wins too? wrote:

Njj wrote:

I don't think Meb had a lot of competition when he won 2014 Boston and 2009 NYC marathon. So that question is no different for him or any other runners out there.

That's not on the agenda.

New York 2009? You must be joking.

The fact is no one but ROJO seems to care. The fact is Chicago is basically the worst or tied for worst WMM now. Spotty weather, no pacers, no inspiring races in a while (though 2010 / Wanjiru's last race was great).

1. London

2. New York

3. Berlin

4. Boston

5/6. Chicago and Tokyo.

Up until this year I'd say Tokyo was the clear #6, but they've taken strides and Chicago has went backwards.

rojo wrote:

It sure looks that way.

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/08/2017-bank-america-chicago-marathon-watered-galen-rupp-can-win/

Is there a flaw in my logic? I'd love to hear it.

It might help to see were the top athletes are already committed to, yet still its decent field. The WMM is all about money, if there is a weak field somewhere, you can't keep athletes away.

You said the same thing immediately when Boston first said Rupp was running. So at least you are admitting your bias.

Boston ended up with a pretty good field and a good race with one of the top young kenyans defeating Rupp who ran well. Why immediately discredit the race and Rupp's effort? They will probably add other fast guys before it's all said and done and everyone knows Chicago is not London.

Plus, pacers make marathons boring unless there is a record attempt. I'd rather see a 2:09 race than a paced 2:06 run with no tactics until mile 22. Honestly, some of those 2:05 runs don't impress me more than other 2:06's.