First of all, thank you for taking the time to provide a detailed reply providing more insight into Clara Santucci, the marathoner, which prompted me to do further, insightful research. Clara is a serious marathoner with the Rio 2016 marathon focus. Everyone on that list, except for Sara Hall and Becky Wade, has already run a faster marathon that Clara. Wade had a great debut last December (like Clara did three years ago), and thus has unknown upside potential at the distance. Hall has the faster turnover promise, but unknown marathon potential. Clara HAS already demonstrated marathon consistency, but appears to have plateaued. Your info indicates there is progress occurring. If you look at Clara's times for shorter distances, she appear's to already be aerobically developed across all distances through the marathon. So now how does she get faster at the distance?I listened to Clara's post-Pittsburg interview; her softspoken nature reminded me of Bill Rodgers. Maybe there is a resonance there with a fellow east coast marathoner? After years of logging big volume, investigate the new stimulus in his training after which, he broke through and dropped his marathon times: he put in track training with Bill Squires' club. (Note, this is specifically for Clara, and not necessarily recommended for all on that list; for example, Sara Hall probably should now do months of what she was doing in Ethiopia this past spring: logging volume, easy, some hard, at high altitude.)
Training wrote:
Sciatica Road wrote:Currently at 27 yrs old, what do you think is happening with her training that is going to take her to the next level? Her recent half in March still puts her in the low 2:30's.
These are the reasons why I believe your analysis, and most others, underestimate someone like Clara's chances:
1. The race she ran to win at the Pittsburgh Marathon was right after the half you mentioned. Your model predicted a full marathon time that was almost exactly what she ran at Pittsburgh (which is extremely challenging compared to the flat half in Denmark). As mentioned by a few previous posters it's hard for a one size fits all model to identify those that will and won't translate well to the marathon.
2. The half you referenced was a 36 second pr (2nd half pr of 2014). When she was less experienced and still 24 at the 2012 trials she ran 2:30 for 7th place (right behind Deena), while never having broken 1:13.
3. Between 2011 and 2014 she's run 5 marathons, all between 2:29 and 2:33. So, while the flashy PR time might not be there yet, you have a combination of experience and consistency that many of the other names being tossed around simply do not have. I like experience and consistency for an event that requires you to perform on a certain day.
Who knows what the field will look like in Feibruary 2016, but outside of Desi and Shalane, right now I would put Clara right up there with anyone because of her combination of age, experience, consistency, promising results in 2014 at shorter distances (while increasing training volume and intensity), and genuine love of the marathon.
Just my opinion and in no way meant to be derogatory towards anyone else or the great things that are going on in US women's marathoning.