A closer look at EPO-era performances

In what other sports are East Africans good?

Kenya maybe in soccer and?

So all of those (well built population for distance running) millions and millions of kids are inclined to running.

Running is organized in training camps so only TOP guys are allowed to compete internationally AFTER careful selection.

That was the situation in former Eastern block sports where only selected athletes are allowed to compete.

Running in Eastern Africa is a profession and runners only need to eat, sleep and run which is not the case

in EU or US.

All of this above + non existing OOC testing = dominance.

Now with more testing and especially in OG and WC they will slow down as already was the case in Rio 2016 and London 2017.

Compare top 5 times in ABP era with those pre ABP era.

ALL CHEATERS wrote:

All of this above + non existing OOC testing = dominance.

Now with more testing and especially in OG and WC they will slow down as already was the case in Rio 2016 and London 2017.

Compare top 5 times in ABP era with those pre ABP era.

+1

But, Nike/UKAD/USADA protection help a bit in leveling the playing field.

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

The 1970s? I thought it was slower.

Good spotting, it was indeed slower, but only by a second. Corrected:

Decade by decade for non-African born male 5000 m runners, averaged over top-5 times (feel free to check the stats):

1960s: 13:22.5 -> some steroids, very few blood "dopers"

1970s: 13:13.4 -> -9s; unlimited blood transfusions + primitive steroids

1980s: 13:04.9 -> -8s; height of cold war doping era, unlimited blood transfusions, steroids virtually undetectable

1990s: 12:59.2 -> -6s; unlimited EPO, begin serious steroid testing

2000s: 12:56.3 -> -3s; begin EPO testing, partial ABP

2010s: 12:57.7 -> +2s; full ABP incl. steroid module - but still 2 years to go

Decade by decade for non-African born male 800 m runners, averaged over top-5 times (feel free to check the stats):

1960s: 1:44.6-> some steroids, very few blood "dopers"

1970s: 1:43.3 -> -1.3s; unlimited blood transfusions + primitive steroids

1980s: 1:42.2 -> -1.1s; height of cold war doping era, unlimited blood transfusions, steroids virtually undetectable

1990s: 1:42.8 -> +0.6s; unlimited EPO, begin serious steroid testing

2000s: 1:42.8 -> +/-0s; begin EPO testing, partial ABP

2010s: 1:42.8 -> +/-0s; full ABP incl. steroid module - but still 2 years to go

Like in the 5000:

- huge jumps in the 70s and 80s

- stagnation in this century

Unlike in the 5000:

- slowdown compared to increase in the 90s

- the 800 were fastest in the 80s (just as in the women's 800), and the 5000 in the 00s (mostly early 00s)

Did unlimited EPO but limited steroids boost the 5000, but not the 800? Maybe because steriods become less important with increasing distance?

Nah, probably coincidence.

Essentially rekruner is trying to say EPO doesn't work for white people. Kind of a refined Jon Orange hypothesis.

I appreciate the effort to look at performance data -- this is a step forward. I thought it would be interesting to look at performances by decade, and might have gotten around to it later. Look at this data, first we must ask, did unlimited EPO boost the 5000, point? Looking at the trend with each passing decade, it looks like the improvements are slowly and smoothly approaching some asymptote, with improvements diminishing each decade, despite the introduction EPO.

casual obsever wrote:

Did unlimited EPO but limited steroids boost the 5000, but not the 800? Maybe because steriods become less important with increasing distance?

Nah, probably coincidence.

I can't help what you understand, despite what is written, but there are problems with your tenses. I'm not speculating that EPO doesn't, or couldn't work, especially for the many C and B runners that are offered as counter-examples, since so few examples exist at the top. Rather, I'm showing a historical fact not subject to speculation: EPO *did not* lead to record times more than 1% (or less depending on event) faster for a group representing 85% of the world, across the board, for endurance events. That EPO didn't work is not subject to debate, but the interpretation of why not is. Since EPO works, we have to look for non-EPO explanations for this unexpected, and potentially contradictory, result.

but failing to prove it wrote:

Essentially rekruner is trying to say EPO doesn't work for white people. Kind of a refined Jon Orange hypothesis.

COAB

Of course EPO doesn't lead to unlimited improvements and performances level off.

casual obsever wrote:

Decade by decade for non-African born male 800 m runners, averaged over top-5 times (feel free to check the stats):

1960s: 1:44.6-> some steroids, very few blood "dopers"

1970s: 1:43.3 -> -1.3s; unlimited blood transfusions + primitive steroids

1980s: 1:42.2 -> -1.1s; height of cold war doping era, unlimited blood transfusions, steroids virtually undetectable

1990s: 1:42.8 -> +0.6s; unlimited EPO, begin serious steroid testing

2000s: 1:42.8 -> +/-0s; begin EPO testing, partial ABP

2010s: 1:42.8 -> +/-0s; full ABP incl. steroid module - but still 2 years to go

Very sweeping and somewhat skewed generalisations there, in my opinion.

1960's - steroids legal until 1968. No random testing, no out of competition testing. Amphetamines also prevalent. Probably the decade in which it was easiest to take and get away with drug use. Almost certainly experimented with in the Soviet block.

1970's - unlimited blood transfusions? Based on what evidence? 1 Finn that admitted to it, rumours about other Finns from disgruntled rivals! Which non Finns have admitted to or been accused of blood transfusions in the 70's?

There was testing for steroids in the 70's and the vast majority caught, (which in itself proves steroids were certainly detectable), were sprinters, field eventers or women. Which 800m, milers or 5000m men were caught taking steroids in the 70's?

1980's - You claim it was the height of 'Cold War doping', which is possibly the truth. But the only way we know that is because of those caught and the subsequent documents and admissions, mainly from Eastern Europe. The fact so many were caught, again predominantly in the sprints, field events and women, proves that steroids were detectable. This goes against your claim that they were not!?

You also fail to mention that blood transfusions were banned in 1985, and the only person caught was another Finn, 10k runner. In addition a few Italians have admitted to experimenting with blood doping, again 5 & 10 k runners.

In addition, many European nations had already introduced random out of competition and out of season testing in the first half of the 80's. There was also testing at the majority of meets in Europe and world records (possibly national records too) could only be ratified with a negative drug test.

Again, please provide some evidence of all this rampant drug taking in these events (800m up to 5000m) with a list of those caught.

1990's - unlimited EPO and more steroid testing.

I would also suggest that taking the average of the top 5 in a whole decade is not a very good sample, as it highlights outliers.

I would suggest that the top 10 or even better, top 20, would give a much clearer and more accurate picture for the purposes of this analysis.

Messiah on a tricycle wrote:

COAB

Of course EPO doesn't lead to unlimited improvements and performances level off.

Unless of course you're Lance Armstrong and you're paying a million bucks to have the best doping doctor in your corner. ?

Still has a limit. His doping was then geared towards consistency of elevated performance, day in and day out.

rekrunner wrote:

I'm not speculating that EPO doesn't, or couldn't work, especially for the many C and B runners that are offered as counter-examples, since so few examples exist at the top.

Say what Gary?

"So few examples exist at the top?"

World records...Olympic & WC gold medals, both from EPO'd & blood doped-up men & women (equal opportunity PED. Lol).

Instead of being a keyboard warrior, better start watching some of theYouTube videos of these doped-up performances and you'll get plenty of examples at the top (hint: the women are simply out of control).

Note that I followed rekrunner's footsteps here. "unlimited EPO" etc. does not mean that everyone took it but that it was possible for everyone to safely take it.

Deanouk wrote:

1970's - unlimited blood transfusions? Based on what evidence?

Yes. Unlimited - as a possibility, as it was legal.

Deanouk wrote:

There was testing for steroids in the 70's and the vast majority caught, (which in itself proves steroids were certainly detectable), were sprinters, field eventers or women.

Yes. Yet it was borderline trivial to not get caught. Favorite stat: only one East German was ever caught, including the 80s. Conclusion: it was trivial to not get caught during the Cold War.

Deanouk wrote:

I would also suggest that taking the average of the top 5 in a whole decade is not a very good sample, as it highlights outliers.

I would suggest that the top 10 or even better, top 20, would give a much clearer and more accurate picture for the purposes of this analysis.

Sure - please go ahead and see whether that makes a difference.

I would argue though that the also-rans are doping less, as they would never win prize money in either case. Seppelt's data, and the IAAF's list of likely dopers, support that assumption.

casual obsever wrote:

Decade by decade for non-African born male 800 m runners, averaged over top-5 times (feel free to check the stats):

1960s: 1:44.6-> some steroids, very few blood "dopers"

1970s: 1:43.3 -> -1.3s; unlimited blood transfusions + primitive steroids

1980s: 1:42.2 -> -1.1s; height of cold war doping era, unlimited blood transfusions, steroids virtually undetectable

1990s: 1:42.8 -> +0.6s; unlimited EPO, begin serious steroid testing

2000s: 1:42.8 -> +/-0s; begin EPO testing, partial ABP

2010s: 1:42.8 -> +/-0s; full ABP incl. steroid module - but still 2 years to go

I haven't looked in detail at the 5k stats you've given, but taking my own advice, I've had a look at the top 10 non African men over 800m since the 1960's, taking just the best time for each, and then taken the top 10 times/performances from non African men over the same time period.

The first thing I noticed, as I went through all the athletes' names until I reached the No. 10 non African, was just how much longer it took to reach that point with each succeeding decade. While that wasn't much of a surprise to me or probably anyone here, the sheer number of Africans that were ahead of the 10th non African increased enormously in the 90's and 00's.

I don't have the time to type up all the athletes (African as well as non African) at present, I will give an overview of what I found.

1960's - only 1 African born athlete (Kiprugut) in the top 11. The top 10 guys were: - Snell, Ryun, Doubell, Kemper, Bell, Dyce, Plachy, Farrell, Sandison & Crothers. Interestingly only Snell had a 2nd performance (1:45.1) that made it into the top 10 times.

Top 10 men - average time = 1:45.02

Top 10 performances - average time = 1:44.97

1970's - Only 2 Africans (Boit & Kipkurgat) in the top 12. Of the top 10 non Africans - Coe, Wohlhuter, Juantorena, Fiasconaro, Beyer, Van Damme, Marajo, Susanj, Ovett & Wottle - only El Caballo has more than 1 time that appears in the top 10 times, with 4 performances!

Top 10 men - average time = 1:43.69

Top 10 performances - average time = 1:43.53

1980's - There are 3 Africans that make it in to the top 13, with Koskei at No.3, Konchellah at No.6 and Ereng at No.7.

The top 10 non Africans are: - Coe, Cruz, Gray, Cram, Barbosa, Mack, P. Elliott, Wuyke, Druppers and Jones.

Interestingly, the top 10 times are provided by just 4 athletes (Cruz, Gray, Coe & Cram), with half, 5 of them, coming from Cruz, and 3 from Gray. This does distort the stats somewhat and makes for a bigger disparity between top 10 men and top 10 times.

Top 10 men - average time = 1:42.97

Top 10 performances - average time = 1:42.44

1990's - This is where there is a big sea change in the 800m event. Before reaching the 10th fastest non African man over 800m, I had to get to No.25. So there were 15 Africans and 10 non Africans in the top 25. The other thing that struck me was the sheer quantity of performances from the African athletes compared to the non Africans, and that's not just from Kipketer. I counted 96 performances from African born athletes that were quicker than the 10th fastest European, Martin Steele at 1:43.84. That works out at c. 6 times/performances (on average) for each of the 15 African runners. In contrast, only Rodal (with 3) and Gray (with 2) amongst the non Africans, set more than 1 time that made it into the top 10 non African performances.

The top 10 non Africans were: - Rodal, Gray, Tellez, Bucher, P. Elliott, Barbosa, Everett, Kenah, Douglas and Steele.

Top 10 men - average time = 1:43.13

Top 10 performances - average time = 1:43.00

2000's - We have to go as far as the No.19 fastest man to reach the 10th fastest non African. In other words, there are 9 Africans and 10 non Africans, so there is more of a balance than compared to the previous decade.

The top 10 non Africans were: - Borzakovskiy, Bucher, Lopez, Baala, Czaplewski, Som, Milkevics? K. Robinson, Reed and Longo.

The top 10 times set from the above were provided by just 5 athletes, and 2 of those (Borza & Bucher) provided 7 of them!

Top 10 men - average time = 1:43.27

Top 10 performances - average time = 1:42.92

2010's - Like the 1990's, I needed to go as far as the 25th fastest man from this decade (well 8 years) before reaching the 10th fastest non African. Also, like the 90's, there were some 97 performances from 15 African athletes that were better than the 10th fastest non African. In contrast, there were 20 performances from the 10 non African athletes that were faster than the 10th fastest non African athlete, Lewandowski at 1:43.721

The top 10 fastest non Africans were: - Tuka, Bosse, Soloman, Murphy, Symmonds, Kszczot, Berian, Brazier, Lopez and Lewandowski. Of those, Bosse, Soloman and Symmonds all produced 2 performances that made it into the top 10 fastest times by non Africans.

Another standout, is the fact that half of the non Africans are from the US. That's a greater number than in any of the previous 5 decades!

Top 10 men average time = 1:43.14

Top 10 times average time = 1:43.01

In concluding, I think the stats show that there has really been very little change in the depth of standards over 800m since the end of the 70's. If we look at the average of the top 10 performers (top 10 men):

1960s: - 1:45.02

1970s: - 1:43.69

1980s: - 1:42.97

1990s: - 1:43.13

2000s: - 1:43.27

2010s: - 1:43.14

NB, some of the performances from the 60's would have been on cinders, so if that were taken into consideration, then possibly 0.5 secs could come off the average.

These stats show that over the last 4 decades, the average time for the best 10 non African men over 800m, has fluctuated by just 0.3sec.

If we now look at the fastest 10 performances/times run by non African men in each decade we see a similar pattern.

1960s: - 1:44.97

1970s: - 1:43.53

1980s: - 1:42.44

1990s: - 1:43.00

2000s: - 1:42.92

2010s: - 1:43.01

We see that for non African athletes, the average of their best times set over the past 3 decades have differed by just 0.09secs.

The one slight anomaly from the stats above is the 1980's being on average about 0.5sec faster than the decades that followed. This can partly be explained by the fact that half of the ten fastest times were set by just one person, Cruz. But, when you then compare to the previous table (that of fastest 10 performers), one can see that there is actually little change in the 80's to the overall trend.

If a similar analysis of African performers and performances was carried out, then I'm sure there would be a greater drop in average times viz a viz non Africans.

Of course that is partly due to socio-economic issues in Africa since the 60's, just like there has definitely been a drop off in participation in T&F in non African nations since the 1980's; although this is not so obvious from the data I've produced.

For me personally, the difference in the 800m lists from the 80's to 90's is the most marked. There was definitely a great African emergence in the 90's, and the sheer number of performances in those lists would indicate that there was likely something happening apart from socio-economic influences. I find it difficult to look beyond EPO as the most likely cause of this.

I would suggest that the data above for the average fastest 10 performers from a non African background over 2 laps; showing very similar results for each of the last 4 decades; indicates that the 800m is probably, either the least affected distance from PED use, or the event where drug use has the least impact on performance.

It could also be argued that the stats provide some evidence that drug testing outside of Africa has been pretty successful over the past 40 years. I can't recall a single name of those athletes listed in the non African ranks that have been banned for drugs. There was a few names I came across in the lists from African countries that have served a ban, and I think it is a universally acknowledged fact that whatever one thinks about the robustness of testing over the last 40 years, there has certainly been more testing in place for athletes outside of Africa than inside.

Ah, ok. Thanks for clarifying. I didn't realise that you were using the comments made by others re blood doping, etc.

Also rans not doping? Enough road whores have been caught to say otherwise.

ALL CHEATERS wrote:

In what other sports are East Africans good?

Kenya maybe in soccer and?

So all of those (well built population for distance running) millions and millions of kids are inclined to running.

Running is organized in training camps so only TOP guys are allowed to compete internationally AFTER careful selection.

That was the situation in former Eastern block sports where only selected athletes are allowed to compete.

Running in Eastern Africa is a profession and runners only need to eat, sleep and run which is not the case

in EU or US.

All of this above + non existing OOC testing = dominance.

Now with more testing and especially in OG and WC they will slow down as already was the case in Rio 2016 and London 2017.

Compare top 5 times in ABP era with those pre ABP era.

Marco Pantani NEVER HAD A POSITIVE DOPING TEST in his entire career...even though he worked with both Francesco Conconi and Eufemiano Fuentes (Operation Puerto 211 blood bags).

There is evidence that Pantani used EPO, anabolic steroids, insulin, Human Growth Hormone, Insulin-like-Growth-Factor-1 (IGF-1), and probably autologous blood transfusions...in addition to levothyroxine (T4, no TUE required!)

Marco Pantani just had some "atypical" or "suspicious" or "likely doping" blood test results in his career ...which was just like Ms. Paula Radcliffe.

Mr. Pantani died in a hotel room from acute cocaine intoxication.

Lance Armstrong NEVER HAD A POSITIVE DOPING TEST in his entire career...even though he worked with Dr. Michele Ferrari. Lance Armstrong was using similar methods of doping as Marco Pantani.

It turns out that EPO, HGH, anabolic steroids, insulin and IGF-1 can all increase the growth of cancer cells.

It turned out that...Lance Armstrong got testicular cancer which spread to his lungs and almost killed him.

It also turned out that there was another cyclist on the junior USA Cycling team with Lance Armstrong who also got testicular cancer...and another cyclist on that team also developed severe endocrine problems. Chris Carmichael was involved with that junior USA team. There were some payments of money that were made.

It is just a coincidence.

It is also just a coincidence that Dr. Michele Ferrari was the student of Dr. Francesco Conconi in ITALY.

Gabriele Rosa came from the sport of cycling...and then moved to Kenya and set up training camps in 1991. His son is Federico Rosa. Gabriele Rosa and Federico Rosa have been the managers of many famous runners including Paul Tergat, Sammy Wanjiru, Martin Lel, Stanley Biwott, Matthew Kisorio (banned for doping 2012), Pamela Chepchumba (banned for EPO doping at 2003 World XC Championships), Agatha Jeruto (banned for doping 2015) Priscah Jeptoo, Rita Jeptoo (banned for EPO doping in 2014), Jemima Sumgong (2016 London marathon winner and 2016 Olympic marathon Gold medalist, banned for EPO doping in 2017).

Federico Rosa does not mention Pamela Chepchumba in this interview. Federico also refuses to give the name of the Italian doctor in Kenya whom he sends his athletes to, when he is asked by the interviewer. Federico also says that he is going to get a machine to do blood testing, and that he will publish the results to show everyone that his athletes are CLEAN. (That sounds familiar.)

And never has there been any doping in our camp. At the end of the day we are 100% clean.”

Since Federico’s father, Dr. Gabriele Rosa, arrived on the running scene from the world of cycling in the mid-1980s, I suggested that in any such case one might expect rumor and innuendo given the connection between Italian physicians, doping in cycling and Lance Armstrong.

“The perception of people is the most difficult thing to overcome,” he agreed. “When someone says something, it is hard to take back. We joined cycling for only one year (1985), and then we ran away from it because my father thought it was too dangerous. (Ha Ha Ha)

“Many people are jealous because of our success... I don’t need to justify myself, but I have bought a machine and will do testing protocols every month on all my athletes to prove they are not cheating. We need to protect the names of our athletes and our company.”

Federico did purchase his own personal blood testing machine.

Federico NEVER published any results for any of his athletes.

Matthew Kisorio is back on the leaked 2016 IAAF "suspicious" or "likely doping" Atypical ABP list...with Mary Keitany, Helah Kiprop, Silas Kiplagat, Asbel Kiprop ( another Rosa athlete), Geoffrey Mutai (high reticulocyte% which can be a sign of EPO use on 2 blood tests, training partner of World Record holder for the marathon Dennis Kimetto and also the training partner of former World Record holder Wilson Kipsang. They both are managed by Gerard van de Veen from THE NETHERLANDS...just like Jos Hermens. It is just a Coincidental Synchronicity™.), Lisa Nemec (banned for doping with EPO), Galen Rupp (coached by Salazar), and Sir Mo Farah (coached by Salazar).

TOTAL NUMBER OF FEMALE RUNNERS FROM THE USA (AND GREAT BRITAIN) ON THE LEAKED 2016 ATYPICAL ABP LIST = 0.000

ZERO

For the 800m it looks like you have added African Americans etc and Baala to your list. Not trying to sound at all racist but earlier on Rekrunner did say he counted Mo, Moroccans & Algerians etc running for France, Spain, Denmark etc as African. To me Cruz and Centro are multi ethnic so non African is fine there. Rekrunner would place Nijel Amos in the 5 Continents category.

Are you hinting that EPO is widespread in the 800m?

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

For the 800m it looks like you have added African Americans etc and Baala to your list. Not trying to sound at all racist but earlier on Rekrunner did say he counted Mo, Moroccans & Algerians etc running for France, Spain, Denmark etc as African. To me Cruz and Centro are multi ethnic so non African is fine there. Rekrunner would place Nijel Amos in the 5 Continents category.

Are you hinting that EPO is widespread in the 800m?

Why wouldn't it be Subway?(EPO or blood doping). Look at the primary energy system for the 800: