Any evidence that social distancing actually works?

Pay attention to Florida.

Pay attention to Louisiana.

Then look at per capita deaths compared to California, the supposed hot spot.

libs are dumb wrote:

Density may speed the spread. Wait a few more weeks and I predict that the number of cases per state will mirror the population.

So distancing slows the spread. Regardless of he ultimate number of cases this slowing will keep our hospitals from going under. The only hotspots that are in danger right now are New York, Detroit and New Orleans. But they can borrow enough resources from the rest of the country to avoid a complete collapse. Without the lock down every metropolis in the country would look like New York.

It has already been established that covid19 transmits by droplet, not aerosol.

Sleepless in Seattle wrote:

Seattle proves that social distancing works

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/seattle-washington-state-coronavirus-transmission-rate.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Seattle doesn't "prove" anything. I live here, and have been watching the numbers. In early/mid-February, a dry hacking cough went through like wildfire. I haven't heard a single cough in over a month now. Hospitals are waiting for a "bomb" that probably already went off. The numbers are likely just a lagging indicator of herd immunity in a population that now is probably past the 70% threshold, but politicians and public health officials are claiming credit after the fact for what nature already did.

Does water really help put out fires? I'm skeptical. Like, you're always supposed to put water on a fire but if it's not a TON of water then the fire usually keeps going so it's like, what's even the point?

SeaCovid wrote:

I haven't heard a single cough in over a month now.

Maybe because everyone has been stuck inside???

SeaCovid wrote:

It has already been established that covid19 transmits by droplet, not aerosol.

Has that been firmly established? The WHO has certainly put out guidance for being concerned about covid-19 in aerosol form "when aerosol generating procedures are performed". They mention aerosol virus is not generated from coughing or sneezing. However, I couldn't find any studies confirming if or how covid-19 aerosols could be generated. Only the UK study that studied the half-life of covid-19 when it is in aerosol.

One article I did find was that the current guidance was that it is largely spread by larger droplets and contact, but went on to say that is a lot is still unknown and unstudied, and it's premature to conclude it is not spread in aerosol form.

This is something I've been very curious about, so if you can find me the conclusive study that shows it is not spread by aerosol, or only spread during "aerosol generating procedures" then I would like to read it.

Here's some evidence, though it's open to interpretation:

https://healthweather.us/

This is data is just from thermometers, but it shows atypical rates of illness in the first half of March, with rates plummeting in the second half of March.

I don't have dates that various measures were implemented in various regions. I suspect one could argue that social distancing (at least in its current, extreme forms) came too late to explain this curve. But there were already pretty serious changes in behaviors by the early March. Hand sanitizer was scarce, optional telework was common, etc. It would be interesting if far more moderate measures were all that was necessary to get the transmission rate to a manageable or declining level.

old guy 74 wrote:

Ever heard of 'common sense?'

Yes I really hope it makes a comeback.

My sister a nurse has the Corona virus. I’ve stayed away from her and I don’t have the Corona virus. Her husband who has been within 6 feet of her quite a bit received the Corona virus from her. It really is that simple.

In theory yes. In practice most likely no. Look at Italy. Nyc. Pretty much every where quarantine has failed. That's because this virus infected the whole world months ago. It will be gone in a few months.

all the answers wrote:

In theory yes. In practice most likely no. Look at Italy. Nyc. Pretty much every where quarantine has failed. That's because this virus infected the whole world months ago. It will be gone in a few months.

No, it won't. The health and pandemic experts say it is with us permanently and will come back, likely seasonally - like most of these sorts of virus.

Whether or not this was just a natural progression the Bay Area was the first place to shelter in place. And consider SF is the most densely populated city in the country after NYC.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/03/30/bend-it-like-the-bay-area-doctors-see-flatter-curve-after-2-weeks-of-social-isolation-1269663

jhgbfvtg wrote:

colorunner123 wrote:

Yes it is possible. Japan and Sweden both have small numbers of corona deaths. Neither has implemented a quarantine.

Sweden actually has a high corona death per capita.

Japan, China, HK and South Korea don’t. Population in all these countries wear face mask to reduce infection to others.

That seems to be the biggest common factor.

Rupp will have such an advantage...

180 deaths so far in a country of 10.2 million people. By comparison, Italy has has 12,428 deaths in a country of 60 million.

Hey you're a POS. Thats how social distancing works dummy

the bioshere in intricate: how original you POS wrote:

Hey you're a POS. Thats how social distancing works dummy

Do you have any understanding of science? We can't all just live by fairy tales

Guarantee you believe tons of stuff which is totally inaccurate about reality

99% of people on the planet will be exposed to the Coronavirus. It's just the luck of the draw how your immune system reacts.

I've actually worked in a hospital. I've studied medicine. The biggest problem in medicine is that 90% of the people that go to hospitals don't even need to be there

And anywhere from 50 to 90% of the medical procedures and interactions and prescriptions are completely unnecessary.

Guarantee you that people eating total crap and smoking crap is ten times worse if not a hundred times worse for society than the coronavirus

Put the coronavirus presents and Boogie Man so it's something for people to Rally around. It's like the threat of communism back during the Cold War.

The coronavirus is going to make its way through the human population. We should be doing what Sweden is doing and putting reasonable restrictions on large Gatherings but carrying on otherwise and looking for drugs and vaccines that will work. Why are people outraged about the millions of people dying of obesity about the millions of people dying from cancer from cigarettes.

Harambe wrote:

The major one is the weird belief that many people share (with no evidence) that the virus has infected far more of the population than conventional belief suggests.

evidence:

Try to keep up.

"The health and pandemic experts say it is with us permanently and will come back, likely seasonally - like most of these sorts of virus. "

No they don't say that. They say it will like return in the fall. That is IF it goes away this spring/summer. The fact is no one knows about this virus. It could be that it goes away in the next month forever. That's typically how these kind of viruses behave.