Sub Elites getting slower

[quote]BACK in the day wrote:

Maybe back in those day when you got out of college you thought you had a chance as an elite marathoner. So all those 14:00 5k guys would continue to run thinking they could be that 2:10 guy winning Boston. No 14:00 guy today thinks he's going to run 2:07 or better to win Boston, or New York.

/quote]

Shorter won the NCAA 10000 in '69 and had a gold medal in the marathon three years later. The last North American to win NCAAs was Cam Levins. At no point was he ever mentioned as a medal contender at the Olympic level.

I ran A MID 2:30 marathon this past year and peoples minds exploded... there are so few many people running even that fast it's easy to think that 6 minute pace is fast.

..it was a hard effort...and I have some talent but I have no running pedigree and I'm over 40. The trick is being skinny. If I could get to my high school weight pretty sure running 2:20 would be doable but no way I'm dropping to 130 pounds at 41. If I did... I bet 2:20 no problem:0

People are getting slower because they buy the hype there is an easier way. Tons of advertising about products for recovery .. pre race, during race, after race...everyone thinks there some secret... special shoes.. drop or no drop, diet restrictions etc. all of that gets in the way. Just get crazy lean and do marathon specific workouts and you'll cruise to 2:35. 'Lean' like you were in high school. The motor can only push so many kilos. No matter how fit you are if you put on a 10 pound or 20 pound waste belt or belly your gonna run 10-20 minutes slower... that puts most guys around 3 hours by default...

The only secret is get as lean as possible and go run. It's physics.

So many people think 160, 150, 140is lean... there won't be a Kenyan who runs 2:o3 that weighs 150....140..probably not 130.... if you look at the 1 minute per pound rule you can see how tons of 3 hour marathon runners could easily run 2:30 range... but show me how many 130-140....pound guys you see at a marathon..

The guys running 2:30 now might be able to dip to 2:20 if they get Kenyan lean.

They also will run 2:40, 2:50, 3hrs pretty easily when they are 160-170 pounds.

Take the 10k. There's now a yawning gap between the sub29 crowd and 32 plus folks. This used to be packed with elite wannabees who trained like dingbats for years to get maybe 30. Now, fewer bother unless they know they can make elite. That phase of the running boom petered out sometime in the early 90's. My 9:17 steeple from 1976 is still in my (medium sized)club top 10. lol. Sub elites are not getting slower, it's just that far fewer are interested in being sub elite.

are you talking 5'9" runners? kawauchi is 137lbs and does ok at 5'9" . 137lbs and 6' is way different

I'm just saying I think there's a lot of people that are super fit and probably capable of a lot faster times... if we killed the big elephant in the room.

I totally agree there's always anomalies in the height and weight department.... there will always be a few guys that are superlight and super heavy....that don't fit the mold ....but generally I think you only have to turn on the Berlin Marathon highlights to realize those dudes in the front group are scary haloween lean...i'm sure there's outliers but looking at that front group i've never been that skinny in my life.

I'm not saying it's healthy and I'm not even saying it sustainable I'm just saying there's a lot of three hour marathon guys that would be running 2:30 they lost 30 pounds... and again I'm not suggesting that that's possible or realistic... also there are several 230 marathon guys that if They gained 20 or 30 pounds would easily be running slower 3:00. .. you only have to look at Bob Kennedy to see that... I know the guy is in trying and he's one of the greatest American distance runners ever but I bet he's working pretty hard to just run the 3:30-4 hour marathon he is running now. Maybe we can get Ryan hall to come back and give it a try?

I'm just suggesting that part of the sub elites getting slower or maybe just the general population as a total getting slower might have more to do with BMI. There obviously other reasons I just think this might be one of them. I don't think being fast is healthy so I'm not advocating everyone go out And lose 30 pounds but it would be interesting to take 10 three hour marathon runners and have them all lose 30 pounds and see what time They would run. Also it would be really interesting to take 10 guys or gals that can run 2:30 have them carry 30 pounds to see if I can even qualify for Boston, I bet if you compared heart rate profiles the same effort is being held but it just different speeds.

I think the more interesting study and honestly if somebody could get the money together it might be possible take 10 sub elite Kenyan marathon runners and have them carry 30 pounds for a marathon to see what time they would run :-) I bet you'd see some to 2;15 guys. Running close to three hours. If you put $10,000 on the line I bet you could actually get that race to happen . Anybody want to start a kick starter for that?

I just think the big culprit for slow marathon times has more to do with weight than fitness. I think there's a Tonna people out there that are crazy fit just not that light I don't think it's easy to run a 3 hours and honestly I don't think I could do it if I had to carry 20 or 30 pounds I'd probably drop out and get hurt.

minong wrote:

I'd be interested to know from some of the older guys what they see as the difference between the 80's and now. At least finishers wise, there's more people participating than ever. For whatever the reason, there's so few 2:30's guys around. Even in the last 5 years it's seemed to have dropped off significantly.

Probably the result of 50 years of declining birthrates. Baby boomers did them in big numbers 30-40 years ago. My father who was a 'jogger' could do 2:49 and his mates did similar times. Nowadays it's either sub 2:20 guys or those running for charity (3:30+).

Same thing is seen here in the UK, not just at the marathon but at all distances from 5K upwards, on the track as well as the roads.

The reasons for this decline have been well rehearsed in the past on this forum. The main reason is that there are fewer people training seriously purely for the purpose of running faster or beating more people. At the big city marathons/half marathons completing is seen as identical to competing. There are lots of other avenues for endurance minded athletes to go for; triathlons/duathlons/ adventure or obstacle races etc. etc.

Fewer people work a straightforward week, Monday-Friday 8:00 till 5:00 which ma have been physically demanding but did allow for a training routine to be established and left the weekend free for racing. Also, because of increased traffic and changes to policing there are fewer local road races of decent quality; several well know races seem to have disappeared over the last decade or so

There were a ton of guys at the 2016 Olympic trials marathon who have run under 2:20 anyone have a list of qualifying times from 2016 versus1980? Curious if there are more or less fast guys in a race that matters?

Looking at 1980 versus 2016 it looks like pretty similar quality field at the trials. Around 200 guys ran the time or equivalant in a 1/2 a 1:05.

-200 guys sub 2:19 in 2016....if they "all" showed up to Boston I have a feeling the typical 100th place In the mid 2:30s would be 300th.

" 1980 May 24, 178 of the 222 American men who had met the qualifying standard of 2:21:54 were in Buffalo, ready to run.

2016: 2:19 standard

Total number of qualified men: 211

By marathon: 86

By half marathon: 125 "1:05 time"

Attained "A" standard: 27

Attained "B" standard: 184

I am not talking about being top 10 in a particular race, I am talking about taking everyone that lives in my fairly large city and looking at what they'd be capable of running in a particular year. There sadly aren't 10 guys that could break 2:38 living here. Okay, that's not probably completely correct...there aren't 10 guys here that ran a marathon this year (racing anywhere in the world) that broke 2:38. Not even 5, I believe. There are a handful of other runners that just do 5k/10k races that could break 2:38 not included in the group.

200 guys capable of running sub 2:20 in USA 2016 and the same in 1980... 211 or so.... at the trials...

we're not including a few hundred or more college guys that could also run sub 2:20 if they needed to....

Not much has changed just more spread out... racing random marathons but same amount of guys running similar paces.

i think mostly the high 2:20s to low 2:40s crowd has dropped off since the "running boom"... not so much those capable of hitting OTQ times

Very simple - once you realize you can't run 2:18 after you graduate NCAA college xc/track, you might as well take up crossfit or bodybuilding. What's the point in being a 2:30-2:50 marathoning male?

Agree... once you can't run sub 2:20 I think most of the college guys stop running... live in a college town and very few past graduation... all have dreams of otq' but Most have nagging injuries and get sidetracked.

I think so many are also caught up with college times and Pr's that it's hard to train at what was once a pedestrian pace.

Just out of curiosity what were the Trials Standards like back in the 70s + 80s? I would think that the 2:22 standard from 2008 would encourage guys in the 2:20-2:30 range to keep at it. Even if you are sub-2:40 and young, you can still dream of a 2:22.