Anybody see this yet?
http://www.runnersworld.com/olympic-trials/is-galen-rupp-planning-to-run-the-olympic-marathon-trials
LetsRun's analysis of this development is now up on the homepage:
The question we ask is where does he have a better shot at a gold medal. The marathon may at first glance seem like a ludicrous answer but when you think about it, it becomes more of a tossup.
Van Houtte wrote:
Anybody see this yet?
http://www.runnersworld.com/olympic-trials/is-galen-rupp-planning-to-run-the-olympic-marathon-trialsLetsRun's analysis of this development is now up on the homepage:
The question we ask is where does he have a better shot at a gold medal. The marathon may at first glance seem like a ludicrous answer but when you think about it, it becomes more of a tossup.
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2015/12/galen-rupp-running-half-marathon-sunday-will-olympic-marathon-trials/
Without reading through all of the post, I can guess there is a lot of typical LRC over analyzing going on. There are not other WC elites in this race and the course is not even USATF or IAAF certified. I am almost certain Rupp will be doing a training run the day before this race and the day after, which makes this a typical training run. However, at Rupp's level, I would not be surprised if runs sub-63. Rupp is a family man and money matters; Rupp can get $50K in appearance fees from a big named half and I'm sure this race can't afford him. This race will be similar to what you saw Shalane do last week. Also, Rupp will not be running the USA marathon for several reasons:
1. He will make a boat load of money in his marathon debut, probably in excess of $200K and it will be a big city marathon.
2. Rupp has stated on 2 occasions that he will be looking forward to World Indoors. Rupp has been ranked among the top-5 distance track runners in the world for several years and is making good living on the track. Why change now and go straight to the marathon with barely any road racing experience.
3. Rupp's focus in on the Olympic 10K and why not since he has a better shot at a medal now than he actually did in 2012.
Rupp most likely has some connections to the event organizers and is simply supporting this event. Good for him!
All aboard the hype train wrote:
You mean like Salazar did in the 80s? I seem to remember Salazar debuting in the fastest time ever for a debut. He then broke the world record.
Salazar didn't break the world record.
TrackCoach wrote:
the course is not even USATF or IAAF certified
Bzz wrong! Course is USATF certified:
http://www.usatf.org/events/courses/maps/showMap.asp?courseID=OR11023LBRace is most likely USATF sanctioned by now too although it's not shown on the USATF calendars.
USATF sanctioning is a piece of cake. You fill out a form, pay the USATF, and *bam* your sanctioned. It's often done at the last minute when John Elite registers for your race.
Addressing the question of where the Olympic gold is more likely for Mr. Rupp:
Let's say Kamworor, Tanui and Karoki use a frontrunning tactic again against Mo (or other Kenyans, but I do see Tanui and Kamworor in there. I assume Kamworor is in the Olympic 10000.)
They came close to Mo this summer past at worlds, and they know it's their only chance to beat Farah. They come in fit and motivated next summer. They take it out fast, and share the work. They are out there busting balls, let's assume!
It's possible that Rupp is better able to stand the pace than Mo, who is 33 at the games. This super strong Rupp, he'll likely be ready to kick past the Kenyans too. There are many variables, but this is possible.
On the other hand, the marathon is unpredictable on a given day, who can say? However, I predict right now that your 2016 Olympic gold medalist is Eluid Kipchoge. I'd be delighted to see this great man cap off his career with an Olympic gold.
I'd rather see Galen run the 1500 at indoor worlds that the marathon trial. Get that 2012 kick back!
Rupp most likely has some connections to the event organizers and is simply supporting this event. Good for him!
Highly doubt this. The event organizers placed a life-sized statue of Kara Goucher in one of their running stores (granted they did this before Kara came out against Alberto and Galen but still...)
Breaking, Breaking, Breaking. As suggested above would happen, the Foot Traffic Holiday Half is now an official USATF sanctioned race. You can confirm here:
http://oregon.usatf.org/Events/Upcoming-Events.aspx
So it's all officially going to count now. Bam.
Alberto Salazar ran 2:08:13 to set the WR.
Post-race they said it was measured short, but still recognized as the WR by many at the time, including Lopes, DeCastella, Jones, which is all that matters in my opinion.
Seeing that McMillan gave 26:44 as 2:05:26 made me input Dennis Kimetto's 2:02:57 out of curiosity. It yields 1:37.9 800m, 3:38.1 mile, 7:43.4 2 Mile, 12:37 5000m, 26:12 10000m, and 58:25 half marathon. In other words, McMillan gives Kimetto's record as stronger than all the other distance records except for the half marathon! (58:23)
Let's say Rupp qualifies and enters the OT.
What does his build up look like between the Portland half and the OT?
If he makes the olympic team, what does his build up look like going from the OT to Rio?
Just curious what the approach would be like for someone so track focused that has never run a marathon before and doesn't have much time. Obviously he has talent on his side.
Very little chance that Rupp runs marathon for reasons already stated.
But also, consider what we know of Salazar and Rupp. They commit to a goal, and a plan to achieve that goal, years in advance. If Rupp was going to run the Olympic marathon we would have known about it 2 years ago. Furthermore, this is the last Olympics Rupp will have the opportunity to run on the track and seriously compete. He is not going to pass that opportunity of lifetime up just to run the marathon. He will be able to run the marathon at a high level for much of the next 8-10 years after the 16' Olympics.
That said, an x-factor is where Rupp's heart is at. I suppose its conceivable that he suddenly wants to run marathons and no longer has interest in track. But again, I think he would have done that soul searching back around 2013 and made a commitment then.
I cannot imagine him trying to do both marathon and 10,000M.
The 10000 is first, yes? If Rupp has wild aspirations, and believes, he can run his best event first. Marathon is icing on cake. Maybe he'll do it.
Agreed, but Its not really a question of him doing it that Olympics. Its about training to qualify for both events. I can't imagine Salazar wanting Rupp to train for and run the trials marathon in January. I also believe Rupp will still want to run the 5000M if he competes on the track at all.
Lafler, Geef wrote:
The 10000 is first, yes? If Rupp has wild aspirations, and believes, he can run his best event first. Marathon is icing on cake. Maybe he'll do it.
If he runs a 1:02.00 or better, loom for him to attempt the trials. If he runs a 1:06.00 or slower, it's a training run. If its in between, he jus toying with the process.
Lafler, Geef wrote:
Addressing the question of where the Olympic gold is more likely for Mr. Rupp:
Let's say Kamworor, Tanui and Karoki use a frontrunning tactic again against Mo (or other Kenyans, but I do see Tanui and Kamworor in there. I assume Kamworor is in the Olympic 10000.)
They came close to Mo this summer past at worlds, and they know it's their only chance to beat Farah. They come in fit and motivated next summer. They take it out fast, and share the work. They are out there busting balls, let's assume!
It's possible that Rupp is better able to stand the pace than Mo, who is 33 at the games. This super strong Rupp, he'll likely be ready to kick past the Kenyans too. There are many variables, but this is possible.
On the other hand, the marathon is unpredictable on a given day, who can say? However, I predict right now that your 2016 Olympic gold medalist is Eluid Kipchoge. I'd be delighted to see this great man cap off his career with an Olympic gold.
I'd rather see Galen run the 1500 at indoor worlds that the marathon trial. Get that 2012 kick back!
re: "Kamworor, Tanui and Karoki"
When Rupp is on top of his game, Mo is the only athlete I say is clearly ahead of him; the other 2 (10K) medals are definitely up for grabs. Btw, Rupp's has a faster PR than all of those guys, it might be faster than Mo's as well.
TrackCoach wrote:
Rupp's has a faster PR than all of those guys, it might be faster than Mo's as well.
What do you mean "it might be"? It is.
How can someone (Rupp) with asthma run a full marathon... be an olympic silver medalist in the 10000 meter and also have an american record to his name and some people who don't have asthma can't get up off there couch without falling over on to the floor?
If Rupp does the OT, then he is committed to that for Rio. No way he runs OT just to try out the marathon. He could have done that at any time. Plus, I agree with other posters, that the half is going to be a tempo run. He can't do enough marathon prep for Rio in what will surely be a humid, if not hot, marathon that will greatly favor hot weather runners.
That said, I'd love to see Rupp run a fast marathon and shake up the elite scene. It just might be the right fit for him, better than Mo.
Seriously this whole story is beyond stupid. A 10,000 specialist with no great road experience never mind marathon experience is going to step up in Olympic year without the faintest idea whether he's any good at it?
Okay he might not be able to beat Mo but he clearly has a much greater chance of medalling in the 10,000 than the marathon, which is far more competitive.
Wasting my time...
Oh and one more thing... will he do the 10,000/marathon double????
He couldn't even handle the FIVE thousands after the 10 in 2012 - he's suddenly going to race competitively over both distances in the space of a week.
Who's writing this garbage?
