Rio 2016 Marathon Teams

Flanagan and Linden are the only locks. Both have run over 5 minutes better than any other American this year.

No male is a lock. You cam give reasons for a failure for all. Meb says he is done. Ritz is too hurt to run a fall marathon this year. Hall has only run a 2:18 in the last 2 years. And these are the favorites but certainly not locks.

Men's team:

Sam Chelanga

Josh McDougal

Josh Cox

All Liberty U alumni team

Seriously, though, how amazing would it be if McDougal rounded himself into shape and pulled off the unbelievable?

Thanks for this wrote:

The biggest mistake is any analysis of an athlete that has never run a marathon. There are more examples of great half marathoners that have failed in the marathon than have succeeded.

Second this. So true.

finisher medal wrote:

for the men I'll go with Meb, Ritz, then either Arciniaga or Gotcher.

Women will probably be Hastings, Davila, Flanagan

Good picks on the M side.

Why are multiple people predicting Hastings? Nothing against, but she has had really bad luck at the distance and slower times in recent attempts. She is doing much better at shorter distances. Some runners aren't meant for the marathon, not that there is anything wrong with that.

Flanagan and two others completely new to the marathon Olympic scene. These two others will not be plagued with injury problems.

Lopes was 38, but de Castella was 24.

Ritz, Meb, Hall. Hall barely makes the team, goes to Olympics, drops out again and announces retirement.

I agree with you there.

If they pick the same fragile crew (men or women) that went last time, there will be multiple DNS and DNFs.

The only runners guaranteed not to are Meb and Flanagan.

That's why it should be Meb and two other Olympic rookies.

And Flanagan and two other rookies.

how 'bout some love for tyler mccandless! long shot, but a shot nonetheless

Ryan MF Vail. He will carry the entire team on his back

Sciatica Road wrote:

Now that the women's list has been posted, some (e.g., Kara G) may feel slighted with their ranking, but I wish to say that anyone of these women could have an honest shot at making that team.

I promise you that Kara G does not feel slighted by your rankings.

Sciatica Road wrote: I'm leaning toward Meb being the closest to that vulnerable bubble, if we assume a sub 2:08 is going to be required.

Sub 2:08 is definitely not going to be required.

last time i heard ritz was coaching at gvsu in mich and not training? any news to this rumor?

Sciatica Road wrote:

Most of You Have No wrote:

Clara Santucci has a good chance of making the women's team.

Currently at 27 yrs old, what do you think is happening with her training that is going to take her to the next level? Her recent half in March still puts her in the low 2:30's.

These are the reasons why I believe your analysis, and most others, underestimate someone like Clara's chances:

1. The race she ran to win at the Pittsburgh Marathon was right after the half you mentioned. Your model predicted a full marathon time that was almost exactly what she ran at Pittsburgh (which is extremely challenging compared to the flat half in Denmark). As mentioned by a few previous posters it's hard for a one size fits all model to identify those that will and won't translate well to the marathon.

2. The half you referenced was a 36 second pr (2nd half pr of 2014). When she was less experienced and still 24 at the 2012 trials she ran 2:30 for 7th place (right behind Deena), while never having broken 1:13.

3. Between 2011 and 2014 she's run 5 marathons, all between 2:29 and 2:33. So, while the flashy PR time might not be there yet, you have a combination of experience and consistency that many of the other names being tossed around simply do not have. I like experience and consistency for an event that requires you to perform on a certain day.

Who knows what the field will look like in Feibruary 2016, but outside of Desi and Shalane, right now I would put Clara right up there with anyone because of her combination of age, experience, consistency, promising results in 2014 at shorter distances (while increasing training volume and intensity), and genuine love of the marathon.

Just my opinion and in no way meant to be derogatory towards anyone else or the great things that are going on in US women's marathoning.

newton fan wrote:

how 'bout some love for tyler mccandless! long shot, but a shot nonetheless

2:16 high marathoner. Not a chance. Ritz, Meb, Hall are nearly a lock for two spots. Vail, Arcinaga, Eggleston, Cabada, Landry, would be the next picks.

last time i heard wrote:

last time i heard ritz was coaching at gvsu in mich and not training? any news to this rumor?

Ritz is in Michigan and doing some coaching, but he is back to training. In his estimation just a few days ago, he is at 90%. He thinks he'll be racing 10K and half this fall. He is definitely planning on making a run at 2016. He's been on 3 straight Olympic teams. I would not count him out.

TLW wrote:

newton fan wrote:

how 'bout some love for tyler mccandless! long shot, but a shot nonetheless

2:16 high marathoner. Not a chance. Ritz, Meb, Hall are nearly a lock for two spots. Vail, Arcinaga, Eggleston, Cabada, Landry, would be the next picks.

Ritz hasn't raced this year

Meb is nearly 40

Hall has not run faster than 2:18:xx since January 2012

no one is a "lock"

John Stuart Mill wrote:

Ritz hasn't raced this year

Meb is nearly 40

Hall has not run faster than 2:18:xx since January 2012

no one is a "lock"

Ritz can put down a 2:10 low and win the trials. Meb, at 40, will still make the team because of his marathon racing savy. Hall will run for third although there is a strong chance Vail will knock him off.

Ritz and Meb are 100% locks.

I see Jeff Eggleston and Ryan Vail having a shot on the men's side. For the women's side I think Annie Bersagel and possibly Stephanie Bruce if she gets back to form post-pregnancy will be in the mix. Clara Santucci (nee Grandt) is a solid darkhorse if she can breakthrough.