Watch out for the bronze medalist from the 10k, Sweden's Andreas Almgren. He is a 12:44.27 5K man from this summer and has a killer kick and is a former world junior medalist in the 800m.
Jakob is not a 12:40 guy. He's a 12:48 guy. Of course, I also believe he could have run faster in the right race sometime over the past few years. But then it's also disingenuous to call Hocker a 12:57 guy. In peak fitness (like he is now) and in a good paced fresh 5k race, I'd expect he could run 12:45.
Ingebrigtsen is not currently even a 12:48 guy. Based on his 1500m heat, he’s probably at 13:10-20.
I bet that’s way off the mark.
He ran 3:37.8 in a 3:36.9 heat, closing in 54-mid, 13.3 last 100. Hard to convert that to a fast 5k race, especially in the case of an exceptional runner like Jakob. In a reel shared to the boards earlier he said he believes he’s better prepared for the 5k, and that it’s the bridge from 5k pace to 1500 pace that he hasn’t crossed due to the injury.
I’m (somewhat wildly) guessing he can run 3:32 and 12:55 right now; I bet he can still cruise 62s. I think he’ll look better in the 5k, but a 3:32/12:55 guy who can’t kick isn’t much of a medal threat, and may even struggle to make the final.
Which leads me to say: have you all looked closely at the start lists of the heats? Finishing top-8 in these fields is no joke, and there are going to be some strong runners and bigger names who don’t make the cut.
Heat 1:
Andreas Almgren Nico Young Cole Hocker Hagos Gebrhiwet Ky Robinson Soufiane El Bakkali
Isaac Kimeli
Narve Nordas
Kuma Girma
Jacob Krop
Dominic Lobalu
Matthew Kipsang Kenneth Kiprop Mike Foppen Santiago Catrofe Etienne Daguinos Seth O’Donnell Florian Bremm Nagiya Mori Brian Fay Zhusup Sulaiman Uulu
Heat 2:
Jimmy Gressier Biniam Mehary
Grant Fisher
Jakob Ingebrigtsen George Mills
Niels Laros
Yann Schrub Mohamed Abdilaahi Eduardo Herrera Cornelius Kemboi Thierry Ndikumwenayo John Heymans Valentin Soca Birhanu Balew Saymon Amanuel Andrew Coscoran Gulveer Singh Darragh McElhinney Luis Grijalva Jack Rayner Harbert Kibet Jamal Eisa Mohammed
This could be 12:58 race. Recall the 2021 Olympics in similar conditions and same stadium. Africans like Cheptegei did push it. That will be good for Grant
Why is there not lots of talk about Almgren for the 5k? A few people mention him, but I feel he should be a favorite. Too tired from 10k? He's got the recent 12:44, he ran 3:32.0 a few years ago. He ran 1:45.5 when he was like 18 as well.
Because a lot of people simply aren't aware of who he is, it's as simple as that. Current fastest European in history in the 5000, road 10k and second fastest European in history in the half marathon.
It's also worth noting that the 10 000 final wasn't a race that's well suited for Almgrens strengths, he would benefit more from a faster race that doesn't turn into a 400 race, but he held on better than the vast majority of the field. He's also been preparing specifically for the warm conditions in Tokyo, he didn't need to use the hydration stations at all in the 10 000 race, which is going to be a benefit for the 5000 as well.
This post was edited 16 seconds after it was posted.
People are underestimating Hocker's endurance here. Dude ran a 7:23, that would be good enough to get him into this 12:40s in a good race. El g going into Athen only had a 12:50 PB (coincidentally, he also has the exact same 3k PR as Hocker). where he got dusted by Shaheen. And then he just destroyed both Bekele and Kipchoge coming off his 1500m win. And with Jakob not being in shape we know there's no Bekele in the field. There's a decent chance Hocker would pull it off there, as long as it isn't faster than 13:00, and he would be the favourite if it's slower than 13:10.
Also, don't sleep on Young, he looked strong in that 10k. He just had poor tactics, as opposed to Fisher who didn't seem to quite have it.
No, it doesn't work like that. Andreas Almgren ran 12:44 in June and a 3000 PB of 7:31 in August, that very same 5000 race where Hocker ran 13:09. Almgren is a 5000 runner, Hocker isn't.
Why is there not lots of talk about Almgren for the 5k? A few people mention him, but I feel he should be a favorite. Too tired from 10k? He's got the recent 12:44, he ran 3:32.0 a few years ago. He ran 1:45.5 when he was like 18 as well.
Because a lot of people simply aren't aware of who he is, it's as simple as that. Current fastest European in history in the 5000, road 10k and second fastest European in history in the half marathon.
It's also worth noting that the 10 000 final wasn't a race that's well suited for Almgrens strengths, he would benefit more from a faster race that doesn't turn into a 400 race, but he held on better than the vast majority of the field. He's also been preparing specifically for the warm conditions in Tokyo, he didn't need to use the hydration stations at all in the 10 000 race, which is going to be a benefit for the 5000 as well.
Because a lot of people simply aren't aware of who he is, it's as simple as that. Current fastest European in history in the 5000, road 10k and second fastest European in history in the half marathon.
It's also worth noting that the 10 000 final wasn't a race that's well suited for Almgrens strengths, he would benefit more from a faster race that doesn't turn into a 400 race, but he held on better than the vast majority of the field. He's also been preparing specifically for the warm conditions in Tokyo, he didn't need to use the hydration stations at all in the 10 000 race, which is going to be a benefit for the 5000 as well.
Almgren freaks go home devastated
Alright, I'll suck it up. Almgren said to Swedish TV that this is the first time he's doing the 5/10 double and that it was more difficult to handle than he expected
He also stated to Swedish TV that his next goal is to break the European Record in the half marathon in Valencia on Oct 26, 59:13 by Wanders from 2019, which I think is 10 seconds faster than Almgrens PB. It would have been more fun to see him in the 5000m final though, although with his final lap looking like this, he would not be a medal contender anyway.
This post was edited 33 seconds after it was posted.
Det er VM, ikke KM. Jeg prøver å gjøre noen smarte ting, Jeg vil si vel gjennomført. Jeg er ikke i nærheten av der jeg skal være rent fysisk, sier Ingebrigtsen til NRK.
«It’s the world championships, not the county championships. I want to say Well done. I’m not close to where I should be physically.» Jakob to NRK
like the steeplechase, 10K and 1500 the race will be slow, probably very slow. We will all act surprised by this, like we do every year.
Fisher, Mehary, and Young have no chance in a 13:20 race. Look for randos we barely know to make the podium... people who can close in 51.
My pick for gold is Isaac Kimeli of Belgium. I like how he looked in that European race where he blew away Grant Fisher in the rain. I'm picking Hocker for second based on his performance at the U.S. trials and Gressier for third because he has demonstrated the ability to outkick Fisher, Mehary, Almgren, and Young.
I don't remember which other Ethiopians are in the race, but I doubt any of them can close in 51.
Others:
Laros is a 800/1500 guy. I don't think he will hold up well in this heat/humidity after running three 1500s and one 5000. Also I think he may have peaked a month ago.
Jakob may make the final but he doesn't have the fitness to medal.
Why does Nico have no chance in a 13:20 race? Are you saying he does not have speed?
In a 13:20 race anyone in good position to react to the final move has a chance.
How different would the 1500 have been if someone took it out at 3:28-29 pace?
I bet the winner, at least, would have been different.
In the second heat today, less than a second separated 1st through 10th. The margins are so fine at this level. So many guys are so good, and with Jakob nowhere near his best, no one’s good enough to run away with it. As the cliche goes, as talented and as fit or fast as any one runner may be, it will come down to execution on the day. And with Jakob very unlikely to be “him” this year, we have no history of any of these other guys winning a world championship at this level. All that’s to say, I think it’s wide open.
Jimmy G looked really good in the heat, as did Mehary. With Jakob clearly not at 100%, this race feels wide open with any of about 10, maybe 12 guys capable of winning.
Kimeli, Hocker, and Gressier in some order. Paula Radcliffe said temps in the stadium were 10 degrees lower tonight, hopefully they stay that way for the final. I'm still not ruling out a medal for Jakob, but he needs to move up the field earlier