like the steeplechase, 10K and 1500 the race will be slow, probably very slow. We will all act surprised by this, like we do every year.
Fisher, Mehary, and Young have no chance in a 13:20 race. Look for randos we barely know to make the podium... people who can close in 51.
My pick for gold is Isaac Kimeli of Belgium. I like how he looked in that European race where he blew away Grant Fisher in the rain. I'm picking Hocker for second based on his performance at the U.S. trials and Gressier for third because he has demonstrated the ability to outkick Fisher, Mehary, Almgren, and Young.
I don't remember which other Ethiopians are in the race, but I doubt any of them can close in 51.
Others:
Laros is a 800/1500 guy. I don't think he will hold up well in this heat/humidity after running three 1500s and one 5000. Also I think he may have peaked a month ago.
Jakob may make the final but he doesn't have the fitness to medal.