We also will be doing a live watch praty and reaction show starting 5 minutes before the race (so 1:55 pm ET) and then going on for as long as we need to afterwards:
I'll predict 413 with a 72 last lap. I think it's like the men going for a 335 mile. Too tough, even with ideal setup and PEDs. Breaking 2 had a successful sequel after an initial try a half minute short. Could it happen where she runs 406 or faster and wants to try again? Certainly.
For now. If she manages to go under 4:00, it will be EVERYWHERE that feminism / female empowerment is spread.
Ironically, one of the things that bothers me most about the hype for this is this quote from Faith.
"And what a man can do, a woman can do.”
No. Can we please stop acting like women will ever be equal to men in elite sports? It's not happening.
Thank God, it's not the reverse of the quote.
"And what a woman can do, a man can do."
As the #1 feminist at LRC, I hope everyone realizes how crazy that sounds. A man will NEVER give birth. Women are amazing. They create life. We aren't the same.
This post was edited 23 seconds after it was posted.
I'll predict 413 with a 72 last lap. I think it's like the men going for a 335 mile. Too tough, even with ideal setup and PEDs. Breaking 2 had a successful sequel after an initial try a half minute short. Could it happen where she runs 406 or faster and wants to try again? Certainly.
I’m not sure what the plan is if she falls off, but if they truly go all out for it and then finish no matter what . . . the seconds could really pile on that last 100-200m alone. One part that gets me is that men lowered the record 8 times between 4:07 in 1933 and sub-4 in 1954. Obviously WWII interrupted the progression, and tech is changing the game, but asking one woman to do that by herself—breaking her own record—in one year just seems absurd. Even accounting for 1500m conversions, there hasn’t been anyone even reasonably close to her, so this would be far more of an outlier performance. I guess one thing in addition to the pacing is that they can genuinely argue no woman has ever tried before, since she and others have presumably just trained to incrementally improve into and below 3:50 for the 1500.
I've seen some of the pacers posting on Instagram. Looks like they've got Grant Fisher, Cooper Teare, Niels Laros, Elliot Giles, Craig Engels, and Stewart McSweyn. Georgia Hunter-Bell and Jemma Reekie are also there. Presumably they'll be behind Kipyegon and drop out halfway.
If you look at the men's progression, it took approximately 20 years to go from 4:07 to sub-4, but just 10-12 years to go from 4:03 - 4:04. Interestingly enough, it only took 4 years after breaking 4 to drop another 5 seconds.
She likely won't be, since it's not an official race, and particularly not a World Athletics sanctioned race, which means she can dope as much as she wants.
She likely won't be, since it's not an official race, and particularly not a World Athletics sanctioned race, which means she can dope as much as she wants.
shes still in the testing pool and caan be tested basically whenever
Watch her 4:07 WR. So much of that run tells me that if things are set up appropriately, she's got the legs & ability to be close. Sure, 7.5 seconds is a big jump, but I think it is definitely achievable. At the least, she will come close.
There are a lot of people commenting on things that they really don't know. How many here are real good at Fluid Dynamics and maybe also experimental evidence to pair with it?
Would you have come up with the positioning plan that they are using? I don't have enough experience with the Fluid Dynamics to have an educated guess. But note that FK had no one right behind her. Go watch NASCAR racing. I do think that her pacers did not help much and Faith will be much tighter and has likely been been practicing as have the pacers.
My guess is the shoes, clothes, pacing combine with Faith's grit and very smooth and steady running form to give her a shot, but I think 4:00 is optimistic and everything adds up to a 4:03 level. And not being even would add seconds to a 4:03 optimal time and how close she gets will depend on when she punts.
Also, the suit probably has monitors and they will track continually and compare with the training data. And her 4:07 was not paced for that time so it was less than optimal. And maybe she has gotten better.