There has always been doping in sport, there is currently doping in sport, there will always be doping in sport. There are state sponsored programs, team sponsored programs and individuals going it alone. Every country has athletes that dope, every country has clean athletes. What is impossible to know is who are clean, negative tests are denial cout for nothing.
You missed the point that blood doping in that ‘11 and ‘13 study referred to all enhancement of red blood cell levels . That includes EPO and any number of doping techniques.
No, I didn't miss that at all. In fact, none of the 3 banned cheats mentioned was caught for blood transfusions; they all used EPO at the 2013 worlds.
Also, you can look up those banned for ABP violations; they typically went far beyond the +10% hgb increase published by Ashenden. Too greedy.
A notable exception is Kiptum, who came in with a whopping hgb = 20.3 g/dl in his very first test! That alone got him banned (over 99.99% specificity). All his other tests were above 18.
You missed the point that blood doping in that ‘11 and ‘13 study referred to all enhancement of red blood cell levels . That includes EPO and any number of doping techniques.
No, I didn't miss that at all. In fact, none of the 3 banned cheats mentioned was caught for blood transfusions; they all used EPO at the 2013 worlds.
Also, you can look up those banned for ABP violations; they typically went far beyond the +10% hgb increase published by Ashenden. Too greedy.
A notable exception is Kiptum, who came in with a whopping hgb = 20.3 g/dl in his very first test! That alone got him banned (over 99.99% specificity). All his other tests were above 18.
We know that is very very rare ( except you have some patology) for an endurance athlete , in a hard trainining program doing something like 100 or plus miles per week to have such high hgb value. Is more common to have an HTC low in the range 40%- 44% and hgb 13g/dl - 15g/dl. Coach Canova in his many post about the uselessness of blood doping always said that when they use to test athletes at the beginning and at the end of a period of training , They always see those values (HTC and hgb)drop as athletic performance improves , this in a clean athlete. Hence he did not explain why with blood doping the opposite effect was sought (denser blood).But of course the "magic" and the paradox of doping is precisely this ,recreating an artificial starting situation(even stronger than your natural resting value) as if our body had not undergone 3 or 4 months of hard training. So those 18 g/dl , 20 g/ dl are out of this world and artificial
Let's be fair. If some Africans cheat than all Africans cheat then that applies to the US as well. Houlihan was caught cheating and her coach says he never even heard of Nandrolone. All BTC athletes are suspect. Fisher sets huge PR's and runs 26:33 and 12:53 and he is clean?
This statement is going to set some folks off but it needs to be made - throw shade however you wish. To be truthful, most western country athletes have societal pressure not to cheat at most anything generally speaking. Rule of law has such an impact. There is much more to lose short, medium, and long term. That sense of right and wrong isn’t the same on other continents - corruption and mass under education with limited way out to a decent standard of living causes desperation.
When making accusations take a step back and ask what does that athlete have to lose or gain from taking PED’s (short, medium and long term).
What a load of hogwash, just look to the USATF and USOC. They had Dennis Mitchell and Dr. Brown on their books. Mitchell who tested positive in the 90's, then admitted to taking HGH in the balco scandal in the 00's and was then caught in a scandal trying to sell testosterone to an undercover journalist in 2017.
The USATF was also sending a huge number of athletes to the massively controversial and now banned NOP Doctor Brown who they had also employed as a consultant.
The US had positive tests brushed under the rug in 88. This nonsense of societal pressure doesn't stick at all, people do things everyday that society looks down on... Lie, cheat, steal etc etc. If you think athletics is free from all this, you quite frankly have your head buried in the sand.
I would agree, but people can be pathological in their ability to hide truths about themselves - cheating spouses, thieving employees, con artists, paedophiles to name just a few. But in my opinion in a training camp such as you mentioned there would be suspicions...
IIRC, the authors of the Ashenden et al paper quoted also emphasize that they did not flag anyone while they were receiving the treatment, but many blood dopers do get caught with high OFF-scores after the EPO treatment when they have a high hemoglobin count with a suppressed production of new red blood cells.
This is correct. The study acknowledged one limitation was that it didn't include a "washout period", and since "RET% is at its nadir 10-14 days after rhEPO injections cease", "This trade-off almost certainly diminished the sensitivity of the ABP component monitoring OFF-hr score".
It should be unsurprising that an "OFF" score might fail to detect when athletes/subjects are "ON" some form of blood doping. To better detect that, there is an "ON" score.
And if he is doping, then I'd like to see someone else do what he's doing. Because if all it takes are super shoes and dope, then... where is everybody else at?
You need training and doping to get the most out of your body, whatever that is based on your talent.
Look at it this way: if Kipchoge is doping, then he is 2 minutes ahead of the doped 2:03 runner. That is quite an outlier, a super talent.
If he is clean, he could likely run 1:57 - 1:59 doped. But then, why is there no doper running 2:00 or sub-2, and only 1 person ever running 2:01? Then Kipchoge would be a super extreme outlier, a freak super talent of the century.
Well, you can of course arbitrarily make up any number. 😁
Who is to say that he "could likely" run 1:57 or 1:59 doped? Where did you get that number from?
That said, the number that you came up with, (and I'm sure this has been posted before, but... ) wasn't there some study that said that the fastest that a human could potentially run the marathon was 1:58:05?
The elusive sub-two hour marathon running mark will likely be first shattered by a male athlete in May 2032, according to a ground-breaking statistical study by Dr Simon Angus from Monash University in Melbourne, Australia.
By estimating a statistical model for male and female marathon world record progressions, Dr Angus also found that 1:58.05 is likely the fastest time that any living human being will be able to run this distance.
Published today (in 2019) in Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, the American College of Sports Medicine’s flagship journal, results show that the chance of a female athlete ever breaking the two-hour mark is less than 1 in 100, with the fastest all-time female marathon time estimated to be 2:05.31.
The study by Monash Business School is the first to address all three related aspects of world record marathon performance in one modelling framework – the sub-two hour limit, the limits of human physiological running capacity and gender equivalence.
It also highlights the potential barriers elite female athletes face in marathon running resulting in a something of a “world record drought”, with Paula Radcliffe’s 2:15.25 mark, set in 2003, still standing. A ‘sub-130 minute’ project (2:10.00), advocated in this study, would empower female long-distance athletes.
The marathon has an official distance of 42.195 kilometres (26.219 miles) and was one of the original Olympic events in 1896. More than 800 marathons are held across the world each year, with tens of thousands of participants taking part in this physically gruelling event.
“Breaking the sub-two hour marathon in an official event has attracted growing interest in recent times with commercial and international momentum building,” Dr Angus, Associate Professor of Economics at Monash Business School and ultramarathon runner, said.
“Prospects of a male athlete going sub-two hours in an IAAF event, even in the near future, would appear high given that the most recent world record reduced the mark by 78 seconds, and the Nike ‘Breaking2’ project produced a time just 25 seconds outside this two hour barrier. However, a 13 year wait seems more in line with the evidence.”
As part of the study, Dr Angus applied a robust non-linear economic model to all official IAAF world record marathon performances of men and women since 1950 in order to calculate record-breaking prediction intervals.
The study does acknowledge performance enhancing drugs in it's final conclusion, but it's not how he arrives at the 1:58:05 by 2032.
Anyway, it's kind of fun to look it, in that Kipchoge has dropped 3 minutes off of his marathon time in about a decade. And so a decade from now someone (most likely a Kenyan) may drop it another 3 minutes.
As for Kipchoge, yeah, 2:01 may be all that he can do. Because he's probably 40 years old now, so sub-2 probably isn't in the cards. Doping or otherwise.
As for him being a "super extreme outlier, a freak super talent of the century." I don't really see it like that, in a sense that what he's doing is otherworldly or impossible.
And I say that because I look at another individual sport in tennis and Rafael Nadal.
He won his 14th French Open this year at the age of 36 (he's been winning there since he was 19; and he had just turned 19 because his birthday falls during the second week of the tournament every year). And that was his 22nd Grand Slam title overall. And Novak Djokovic won his 21st Grand Slam title this year at Wimbledon at the age of 35 (he also won his first Grand Slam title at 19, in Australia). And the just now retired Roger Federer had already won his 20th four years ago at 36 (and he was a late bloomer in comparison to the other two, because he didn't win his first Grand Slam until 21).
So here's three people dominating an individual sport for nearly two decades, so what Kipchoge is doing in the marathon is not something that I sit back and say "I can't believe this is happening."
Grete Waitz of course won the New York City Marathon 9 times. Yes, it's from the "ancient days," and yes, it's women, so the depth of competition can be called into question. And of course it was before the African women ran too, so... But she still dominated.
Floyd Mayweather in boxing retired a few years back, he was 50-0. Rocky Marciano back in the 40s and 50s was 49-0. Granted, it's boxing, so, y'know...
Eddy Merckx in cycling. Five Tour de France's and Five Giro d'Italia's throughout the late 60s and early 70s. And yes, it's cycling, but, y'know, still, he had to climb Alpe d'Huez like everyone else...
Anyway, seeing someone dominate an individual sport is not, again, a "I can't believe this is happening" type of thing. No, it happens.
Of course, that is not to say that Kipchoge is not doping. But even if he is, why isn't anyone else as good as him? Because you would have to assume that they're doping too, right. (And that is what you believe, is it not?)
So if he's doping, and everyone else is doping, then what's the difference? How is he still able to win all the time?
And if he's clean, and some or most are doping, then it's even more remarkable.
But either instance is not something that's totally out of the question for an individual sport.
So I kind of agree with you in a, he's a "super extreme outlier, a freak super talent of the century." But not really at the same time, because it's an individual sport and the best person usually wins all the time anyway.
Well, you can of course arbitrarily make up any number. 😁
Who is to say that he "could likely" run 1:57 or 1:59 doped? Where did you get that number from?
Salazar for example is on record with doping gives you 2 minutes in the marathon. Schumacher said that EPO alone gives you 1 minutes over 10,000 m, hence my estimate of 2 - 4 minutes in a marathon.
I knew his $100,000 win Abu Dhabi was too good to be true, but for a different reason (the course was short). Now his whole career appears to be a fraud.
White US athlete gets busted: "Shee ate a bad burritoo. Buy some Teeeee-Shirts, FRee ShlBy! Free Shelby! Here's a link to her GoFundMe! Shee's been wraaanged!"
seriously.....what the hell.
Haha, I don't know what voice I read that with in my head, but it was funny.
This statement is going to set some folks off but it needs to be made - throw shade however you wish. To be truthful, most western country athletes have societal pressure not to cheat at most anything generally speaking. Rule of law has such an impact. There is much more to lose short, medium, and long term. That sense of right and wrong isn’t the same on other continents - corruption and mass under education with limited way out to a decent standard of living causes desperation.
When making accusations take a step back and ask what does that athlete have to lose or gain from taking PED’s (short, medium and long term).
What a load of hogwash, just look to the USATF and USOC. They had Dennis Mitchell and Dr. Brown on their books. Mitchell who tested positive in the 90's, then admitted to taking HGH in the balco scandal in the 00's and was then caught in a scandal trying to sell testosterone to an undercover journalist in 2017.
The USATF was also sending a huge number of athletes to the massively controversial and now banned NOP Doctor Brown who they had also employed as a consultant.
The US had positive tests brushed under the rug in 88. This nonsense of societal pressure doesn't stick at all, people do things everyday that society looks down on... Lie, cheat, steal etc etc. If you think athletics is free from all this, you quite frankly have your head buried in the sand.
Dennis Mitchell may have had more to gain then to lose (short, medium and long term. Having limited skills outside of track and field to fall back on and make a living from may have caused him to have a high degree of desperation.
The rest of what you wrote may be true or may not be true. USATF does seem to not be managed well.
Only when the Italian coaches and or agents get thrown in jail will the doping lessen.
Do you think the athletes, at least in the beginning, know how to get product, when to use and how often? No they don’t. People are desperate, especially if they are not part of the corrupt political class. Those that have running talent use said talents to claw out of poverty. PED’s are a means to an end. Especially when prize monies are kept, no one goes to jail and it is accepted practice.
Don't kid yourselves, Ethiopia, Uganda, South Sudan, Burundi, Somalia, all have similar circumstance but not the same mechanization (my opinion) and are not as attractive a place to live, when compared to Kenya, for the European coaches and agents. I’ll add… not as attractive countries for doping control officials to travel in either.
These coaches and agents make their money off of the athletes and encourage PED’s usage. Otherwise they wouldn’t be living in Africa if they couldn’t make money by exploitation.
Kenya should run these foreign enablers out of their country. So should other countries in Africa. When that happens then the corrupt national governing body officials will have less ability to exploit and blackmail athletes for money and sex.
Now that China has a major presence in Kenya, most of Africa really, one can only assume PED’s are more readily available at the corner pharmacy then ever before.
I still don't understand why these dodgy foreign coaches, agents and athletes choose to live and practice in Kenya over Ethiopia, Uganda, Eritrea, South Sudan and others especially given Kenya's extremely strict testing regime. Yet they keep flooding in. I, for one, was not pleased to learn that Ineos is setting up a cycling camp in the Rift Valley. This will only make things worse and Kenyans, not Europeans, will get blamed and scapegoated.
It is clearly evident that if you dope in Kenya, you'll definitely get caught. That's not something any other country can claim unequivocally. But now, similar to Rio 2016, we're facing a concerted chorus of Western journalists calling for a blanket ban on Kenya. Eliud Kipchoge should be banned because Marius Kipserem paced him at the Ineos event. Faith Kipyegon should be prevented from competing because Diana Kipkoyei got popped. Emmanuel Korir, a Kenyan middle-distance runner who lives in the United States is suspicious because some unknown half-marathoner from the Kenyan highlands called Ibrahim Mukunga has been banned. The corollaries are not only beyond ridiculous, but overtly racist.
I also think it's unfair to cast aspersions on Ethiopia because of the undeniable problems in Kenya. Ethiopia is getting called out for having no major busts whilst Kenya is getting called out for catching too many. None of these standards would be applied to Western countries or hold up in a Western court. Ethiopia is in exactly the same position as the United States and Europe who preposterously ascribe no violations to their countries being "clean".
Only the USA, Kenya and Ethiopia have sufficiently significant numbers of athletes in the testing pool. Most other countries have less than five. So excuse us if we're not flabbergasted at cops catching more criminals in the most targeted neighbourhoods.
I still don't understand why these dodgy foreign coaches, agents and athletes choose to live and practice in Kenya over Ethiopia, Uganda, Eritrea, South Sudan and others especially given Kenya's extremely strict testing regime. Yet they keep flooding in. I, for one, was not pleased to learn that Ineos is setting up a cycling camp in the Rift Valley. This will only make things worse and Kenyans, not Europeans, will get blamed and scapegoated.
It is clearly evident that if you dope in Kenya, you'll definitely get caught. That's not something any other country can claim unequivocally. But now, similar to Rio 2016, we're facing a concerted chorus of Western journalists calling for a blanket ban on Kenya. Eliud Kipchoge should be banned because Marius Kipserem paced him at the Ineos event. Faith Kipyegon should be prevented from competing because Diana Kipkoyei got popped. Emmanuel Korir, a Kenyan middle-distance runner who lives in the United States is suspicious because some unknown half-marathoner from the Kenyan highlands called Ibrahim Mukunga has been banned. The corollaries are not only beyond ridiculous, but overtly racist.
I also think it's unfair to cast aspersions on Ethiopia because of the undeniable problems in Kenya. Ethiopia is getting called out for having no major busts whilst Kenya is getting called out for catching too many. None of these standards would be applied to Western countries or hold up in a Western court. Ethiopia is in exactly the same position as the United States and Europe who preposterously ascribe no violations to their countries being "clean".
How ridiculous. For this to be the case, testing in Kenya would have to be something like 10 x better than in Western countries. Aside from the fact that it's absurd to believe that a chaotic Third World nation could have such better testing, we know it isn't the case, and corruption in Kenyan testing has been widely documented. Aside from that, the majority of these guys are surely being caught when competing outside of Kenya.
Plus, the vast majority of Kenyans are getting busted for roids and things like anti-inflammatory peds. Clearly far more are taking EPO, it's simply that EPO abuse is much, much easier to avoid detection for still.
If it is AK catching this flood of cheaters, then it would be related to the new WADA lab in Nairobi, which is finally bearing fruit after the end of the lockdowns. Just wait until the new genetic test for EPO use comes in in the next couple of years, and can detect EPO injections weeks prior to the test, instead of the present hours.
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