The forecast for Berlin looks PERFECT. Just how fast will Kipchoge go?

For Kipchoge the perfect conditions are

1) Weather 12-14 C, cloudy, wind 2m/s, humidity 65-75%

2) 2 or 3 pacers passing halfway in 60:25

3) One pacer till 25k in... 1:11:40 (!)

4) Never miss or drop fuel bottle

5) Crowd cheering along the course

Then... everything is possible

That “quote” about “those Letsrun wannabes and Monday morning quarterbacks…etc.” must be some sort of satirical spoof? It doesn’t work in any case.

His bike/fueling guy has been training like 4 years for this. I'm sure he'll be on top of his game 😅

Lol.

Looking like high-40s/low-60s on Sunday for highs/lows. Gotta remember this race starts on the later side -- 9:15am. Kind of unfortunate because most elites (male & female) would be done by then with a 7am start. But I understand it's logistically difficult to get everyone to the race start. NYC & Boston start late like that. Chicago starts early but most people stay pretty close to the start/finish downtown.

Looks like more depth than in years past. Nobody who can run with Kipchoge tho.

Why? The temperatures from 9-11am look perfect, and the cloud cover is a bonus

Not going to make a prediction either way, but am rooting for a great run. What I will say is that it is difficult to comprehend that we are talking about the 2003 WC 5k gold medal winner aiming to break his own marathon WR in the year 2022 after double Olympic marathon golds.

It almost defies belief, and, I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Kipchoge is inching ever closer to becoming the all-around GOAT. His track record in the marathon (pun intended) is so astonishing that he may soon have to be considered the best runner ever. Imagine he had completed his marathon career before Kenenisa stepped on the track or the cross country course (or roads) - who do you think we’d say is the GOAT following the subsequent completion of both careers? To me it is becoming less and less clear.

Yes. 2:01:01

You know this is not Bekele right? If you predicted Bekele drop out, very likely. But Kipchoge has never dropped out of a marathon. Only thing that slow him down was a pandemic.

It is Wednesday today, so the weather predictions are only predictions for the race:

12°C at start / 15°C at finish

Partly ⛅️ cloudy

Wind 2m/s

Humidity 85%->75%

So for Kipchoge nearly ideal

Strange obsession comparing apples and oranges.

There, I fixed that for you.

This has been EXHAUSTIVELY litigated, and the sages of this forum conclude that simply winning more marathons can never push Kipchoge to become the all-around GOAT, (though his marathon GOAT status will probably stand for the rest of any of our lifetimes). Some light reading for you:

Eh, would rather slightly cooler temps on race day. Maybe just a personal preference tho. I don't always sleep great before races & would be up for a 7am or 9am start. & I never said the weather would be bad.

Instead of 48/52, you're gonna get 52/58. Makes a small difference in elite racing. Not sure what the issue is in acknowledging that.

It certainly has and my original post was my minor incremental contribution to the conversation.

I think the thought experiment I posed is helpful: if EK had completed his career before KB ran, I think we’d view EK as the GOAT of distance running. Far better than anyone else in his time in hi, wildly consistent, huge longevity, world record holder, and, most importantly, back-to-back Olympic gold (of course, this is all marathon-specific). Truly an unparalleled level of dominance. So, let’s assume he’d be the consensus GOAT?

Then, if KB came along, what would we think? A bit quicker on the track, a better track championship record, and unbeatable on the grass. Also, 2 big time trial marathons close to the then-existing WRs, one of which being Kipchoge’s final (unless something changes Sunday or in the future) WR. Does that eclipse EK, who theretofore would be considered the GOAT? Certainly KB would be viewed as the better track runner, and his double WRs and championship dominance were incredible, but I think that track record success is comparably impressive to EK’s marathon exploits at best (somewhat less dominant, 2 WRs but 5k/10k can almost be lumped together, less earth-shattering records). Then, I think KB’s many-time world cross-country wins and marathon WR scare make it such that you can certainly argue he’d end up being considered the GOAT even with Kipchoge’s marathon history. However, I don’t think it is particularly clear anymore, and thinking of it in this order helps control for the issue of bias toward the reigning GOAT (in recent years, that being KB). If you imagine the order were switched and EK was reigning, people might say his marathoning was so far beyond what anyone else was doing, so incredible, and so unlikely to be surpassed in the decades to come - in what many consider the ultimate event in the sport, or at least to include the ultimate race, the Olympic marathon - that KB had a great career after him but could never quite surpass EK.

(2nd paragraph should say ‘in his event’)

That is an interesting consideration to swap the timing. My thoughts over coffee:

First, I think Geb would hold GOAT status, then when Kipchoge came along people would certainly agree he was a better marathoner but didn't overcome Geb all-around.

Also if Kipchoge's track career happened without Bekele to push him, it's impossible to say how his Olympic and WC races would have played out- you can't automatically assume Kipchoge gold in Beijing, for example.

Then when Bekele comes along and breaks Geb's track records, people would still get caught up (as they do now) arguing whether he surpassed Geb's accomplishments or merely equaled them. I think Geb would benefit more here from racing in a distinct era from Bekele- "it's just too hard to compare!!"

In this scenario Bekele may strategize to take out the half-marathon WR before moving up fully, seeing it as a chance to get another leg up on both Geb and King Kipchoge.

Then when Bekele runs his near-miss marathons, I think we arrive at the same spot we are today: a track career and cross country career that well exceeds Kipchoge's, and road racing accomplishments near enough to take the OVERALL crown.

Jonathan Gault predicts a 2:01:15 WR. Read his prediction and vote in our polls.

letsrun.com

2022 Berlin Marathon Preview: How Much Lower Can Eliud Kipchoge Take the World Record?

Jonathan Gault

Kipchoge delayed his quest to win all six majors by deciding to chase his own world record of 2:01:39 in Berlin. MB: The forecast for Berlin looks PERFECT. Just how fast will Kipchoge go?

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No doubt Kipchoge is the greatest, however he is afraid of real races without pacers like NYC and Boston??????

And like the two Olympic marathons he has won…